Gale Warning 89, NWS Juneau, AK

568 
FZAK67 PAJK 081243
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 AM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-090645-
343 AM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A deep low will move into the northwest gulf near Kodiak
Thursday morning. The associated front will move into the 
eastern gulf late Thursday, then over the Panhandle Friday.  

$$

PKZ310-090645-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
343 AM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt early in the morning becoming variable less
than 15 kt, then becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming W 30 kt late. Seas 10 ft. Rain
and snow...heavy at times in the evening. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. W swell in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

229 
FZAK67 PAJK 082151 CCA
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1251 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-090645-
1251 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A deep low will move into the northwest gulf near Kodiak
Thursday morning. The associated front will move into the 
eastern gulf late Thursday, then over the Panhandle Friday.  

$$

PKZ310-090645-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
1251 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt early in the morning becoming variable less
than 15 kt, then becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming W 30 kt late. Seas 10 ft. Rain
and snow...heavy at times in the evening. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. W swell in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

243 
FZAK67 PAJK 090031
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
331 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-091845-
331 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A deep low in the northwest gulf will send a gale force front
into the panhandle on Friday. The front will stall over the
southern panhandle Friday night. 

$$

PKZ310-091845-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
331 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft late. Rain
in the evening. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas
13 ft. W swell in the evening. Rain late. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

270 
FZAK67 PAJK 091238
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-100645-
338 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A deep low in the northwest gulf will send a gale force front
into the panhandle this morning. The front will stall over the 
southern panhandle tonight before shifting back westward on 
Saturday as a wave of low pressure moves into the eastern Gulf. 

$$

PKZ310-100645-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
338 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt diminishing in the morning. Seas 16 ft. W 
swell in the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the 
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas
14 ft. W swell in the evening. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft or less. 

$$

056 
FZAK67 PAJK 100035
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 PM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-101845-
335 PM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front will stalled over the southern panhandle will shift back 
westward on Saturday as a wave of low pressure moves into the 
eastern Gulf. A gale force low will move N into the central gulf 
on Sun night. 

$$

PKZ310-101845-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
335 PM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing late. Seas 19 ft subsiding 
late. W swell. Slight chance of thunderstorms early in the 
evening. Rain and snow showers in the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt late. Seas 14 ft.
W swell in the evening. Rain.
.SUN...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. SE swell. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft or less. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday night through Friday night/ Low pressure
system in the northeast gulf this afternoon will track to the
southeast along the panhandle coast while weakening. The
associated weather front is crossing over the Panhandle tonight
and follows a similar trend of diminishing by early Thursday
morning. Perception has been mostly snow with a mix of rain with
warm air from southerly flow. Snow amounts have been variable
today with amounts of 2 to 8 inches over the northern and central
panhandle. Winter weather advisories for the central areas will
last until Wednesday night as snow rates are expected to peak
later this evening as the front tracks over. Lingering shower
activity will last into Thursday then dissipate as mid level flow
shifts to the southeast. Inner channel winds flipped to the south
this afternoon, will switch to the north this evening as the low
center pushes south then flip again to the south by Thursday as
the next system moves in.

A 970 mb low develops south of the AK Peninsula by Thursday
evening with the associated front tracking into the eastern gulf
around the same time. The front will initially produce gale
force winds over the gulf then storm force winds over the
northeast gulf as a barrier jet forms. Due to warming airmass next
round of precipitation is expected to become a mix of snow and
rain and then turn mostly rain, especially for the southern
regions. Snow accumulations will be highest for the Yakutat
area, for now looking at around 5 inches, while other locations
might only receive upwards of 3 inches. Southerly winds over the
panhandle and inner channels will also increase as the front moves
over with at least max small craft to potential gale force winds.

12z GFS/NAM were in good agreement for the up coming front and
were used to update inherited forecast. Some minor adjustments to
winds witht he new model runs but larger change to pop and qpf
which began to narrow the band of higher precip along the coastal
areas. Temperatures were tricky as the timing of the front will
not correspond to diurnal trend, thus highest temps may occur
later at night. Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday as of 10 pm Tuesday/
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with each other, and
shows good consistency with the current forecast through
Saturday. From Sunday onward with the models are having poor
agreement. Blended in the current AKWPC resulting in minor
change, except for temperatures that were significantly increased
early in the week. Southerly warm moist flow should persist
through about Wednesday.

For Friday the GFS is trending a bit slower with the southern
area with the system spreading precipitation across the Panhandle
in the early morning. The change is only a matter of a few hours,
making for mostly snowy Friday morning for the Panhandle. Daytime
highs will reach into the 40s for most of the area, changing the
snow into all rain by the afternoon. The bigger change is
increased winds over the northern area which could reach gale
force in Lynn Canal and Cross Sound, with SCA in Icy Strait
Friday morning. Stephen Passage should stay just below SCA.

Temperatures needed the most changing with the warming trend over
the weekend. Daytime highs in the 40s, at possibly needing more
adjustment into the 50s for Sunday. With less model confidence,
will stay reserved in the changes but early next week shows
promise of above normal temperatures. Will be watching this
closely as warm temperatures in the 50s and possibly the 60s will
result in significant melting of snow laden ground both at sea
level and at upper elevations as the freezing level rises.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ023-025.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ051.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041>043.

&&

PRB/KV-RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
941 AM AKST WED MAR 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     SNOW             MUD BAY                 59.15N 135.37W
03/07/2018  M6.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 INCHES MEASURED BETWEEN 9PM TUESDAY AND 9AM WEDNESDAY.
            STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.

&&

NAF