High Wind Warning 1, NWS Juneau, AK

755 
WWAK77 PAJK 011136
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
236 AM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

AKZ027-011245-
/O.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180101T1200Z/
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Craig and Klawock
236 AM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Winds are diminishing early this morning. Wind gusts as high as 81
mph were reported by an observer at Craig during late Sunday 
evening.

This will be the final statement on this event.

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
242 PM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

.SHORT TERM...Clouds have been streaming into the panhandle today
as the precursor to a weather front currently making its way
across the eastern gulf. As of 230pm this afternoon, none of our
observation sites have reported any precipitation, but current
radar, coupled with IR satellite, continues to show precipitation
bands beginning to form along the front near the Baranof Island
coastline. We've also seen many locations warm up this afternoon
due to the strong surface high weakening over Canada and continued
warm air advection preceding the front; in approximately 10
hours, the Juneau, Ketchikan, and Sitka Airports have risen more
than 10, 5, and 15 degrees Fahrenheit, respectively.

At the synoptic level, WV satellite imagery shows an upper level
ridge extending over the eastern gulf and panhandle and a deep
trough over the western gulf with embedded shortwaves. Our weather
front feature is associated with one of these shortwaves. In
addition, we can see a weak developing surface low west of Haida
Gwaii, which should continue to lift north-northeast and interact
with the front creating a potential overrunning situation for
precipitation.

For precipitation amounts, a lot of uncertainty still remains with
this forecast. We're confident it will snow for most locations,
but we're still unsure as to the exact amounts areas will receive.
We are seeing some indications that moisture might initially be
lacking due to the dry air that is still in place over mainly
northern locations. However, a strong jet streak of 70 kt aloft is
assisting with advecting some additional moisture along the
front, so timing the transition of snow to rain remains one of the
more complicated factors for this forecast. The Winter Storm
Warnings and Advisories still remain in effect for their
respective locations.

For the most part, the weather pattern will remain fairly active
through the early part of the work week. The broad trough over the
western gulf should remain a somewhat constant feature that will
continue to advect shortwaves that progress east towards the
panhandle. Subsequent associated weather fronts will take their
turns providing the panhandle with a much warmer and wetter week.
Precipitable water analysis continues to show anomalously high PW
values with each passing front, and it's possible a weak
atmospheric river may set up with each subsequent wave through the
week.

We opted not to make many changes to the current forecast, but any
changes we did make, we mainly used the NAM and GEM. Our forecast
for snow has also remained relatively unchanged, as our
confidence for this event still remains below average to average
in order to reflect our uncertainty.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday morning through Saturday night/...The second
in a series of fronts will be winding down at the start of this
long range forecast period and by Tuesday night, the third front
will be upon us with little to no break in the precipitation. Yet
another front will impact the panhandle on Wednesday night.
Throughout this time, daytime highs, and in many cases, even
overnight lows will be warm enough for this precipitation to fall
as rain rather than snow. Likely PoPs remain in the forecast
through the end of the upcoming weekend and model guidance is
suggesting that temperatures may begin to cool back down by the
end of the week. Still too early if the precip type will change
back to snow.

Winds during the coming week are not overly remarkable considering
that this is Winter and especially after the strong winds, high
winds, and gales associated with the recent outflow event. Look
for small craft winds over the gulf associated with each front.
Most extensive small craft winds over the inner channels will
probably be Wednesday evening. Currently no gales anywhere in the
extended range forecast period.

Updated pressure and wind for Tuesday and Tuesday night with
ECMWF. No other changes there. Blended ECMWF and GFS with some
help from SREF for PoP and QPF. Adjusted Max temps for Thursday
through Saturday down slightly. Adjusted Min Temps for Wednesday
and Thursday slightly up and for Friday and Saturday slightly
down. Overall forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST
     Monday for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ027.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM AKST
     Monday for AKZ024.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Monday
     for AKZ020-025.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM AKST Monday
     for AKZ021-022.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM AKST
     Monday for AKZ028.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight AKST
     Monday night for AKZ029.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon AKST Monday
     for AKZ018-019.
     Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM AKST Monday for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>036.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

Voveris/Fritsch

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