Gale Warning 6, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 PM AKST Sat Jan 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...Busy forecast for the next couple of days. Higher
pressure over NW Canada combined with a low moving into the
southern gulf increasing the pressure gradient and thus the wind
speed over much of the northern panhandle and out of the interior
passes. Skagway looking for 25 to 35 mph wind with gusts
developing to 60 mph late tonight and continuing into Sunday
evening. White Pass area to see some blowing snow and near
blizzard like conditions on Sunday night into Monday.

Mountain wave Taku Winds developing in Juneau early Sunday morning
to Sunday evening with the more favored time in the afternoon
hours it appears. Have gone for gusts to 70 mph in the Juneau
area.

The occluded front spreading north into the southern panhandle on
Sunday midday and then to the northern panhandle Sunday night into
Monday. The Winter Storm Watch for portions of the northern
panhandle will stay watches for now but will likely be upgraded to
advisories or warnings by Sunday.

The second wrap about the main low will be looping into the
southwest portions of the panhandle for later Monday into Monday
night, but will be bringing in some warmer temperatures as well for
the southern panhandle, though Misty Fjord will likely stay cold
enough for snow.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday /As of 10pm Friday/ The upper
level pattern remains blocked and fairly steady state at the
beginning of the extended forecast. The southern panhandle will
continue to have slightly warmer and moist southerly flow while
the northern panhandle sees little to no flow aloft. A surface low
over the southern gulf will slowly track east toward Dixon
Entrance through Tues morning. This will keep likely precip in the
forecast for down there. Temperatures will likely be warm enough
during the day to see rain for POW and Ketchikan areas, but things
cool off to allow for some mixing going into the overnight hours.

Tuesday night through Wednesday, flow aloft turns more N-NWLY as a
ridge forms over the western gulf. This should help to dry things
out, particularly over the northern panhandle. The surface pressure
pattern will remain northerly outflow during this time with cooling
temperatures. Therefore if there is any precip it would be in the
form of snow. This pattern will also keep gales going for Lynn
Canal and out of most interior passes along with the potential
for freezing spray.

Later in the week some models have the upper level ridge shifting to
the east briefly to allow a weather system to move through, then
looks to return to the drier NWLY flow pattern again. Timing and
strength of this system varies based on model. The ECMWF was
preferred overall as it was more similar to the inherited forecast
as well as WPC and the Canadian model. The GFS seemed to be an
outlier in brining the system across the gulf mid/late week and
breaking down the blocking pattern too easily. Past experience has
shown that the block usually wins out and weakens systems as they
come through.

&&

.MARINE...Strong outflow winds increasing overnight, more closer
to morning time frame and then continuing into Sunday evening.
Lynn Canal increasing to storm force on Sunday-Sunday afternoon,
and out of Cross Sound as well. Small craft to gales developing on
Sunday for the inner channels, with stronger winds near the
interior passes or possibly an east-west orientation. Lynn Canal
to northern Chatham to have more fully developed Seas so expect
some 10 to 15 ft wave forecasts.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM AKST
Monday for      AKZ026-028.
     High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ025.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night
     for AKZ019-020-022.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday for
     AKZ021.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 9 AM AKST Monday for
     AKZ029.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ019.
     High Wind Warning from 3 AM Sunday to midnight AKST Sunday night
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ012-013-022.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011-021-031-033-035-036-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ032-034-052-053.

&&

Bezenek/Ferrin

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