Gale Warning 331, NWS Juneau, AK

718 
FZAK52 PAJK 311214
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK
314 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-010615-
314 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front in the gulf will move E into the panhandle
Monday. A second gale to storm force front will move into the 
eastern gulf Monday night and across the panhandle Tuesday.

$$

PKZ041-010615-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
314 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 15 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-010615-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
314 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 16 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-010615-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
314 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 17 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-010615-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
314 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt becoming W 25 kt in the morning, then 
diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft. Rain early in 
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 18 ft.
Rain late. 
.TUE...S gale to 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. Rain
showers. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-010615-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
314 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the morning, then
diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft. Rain early in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 55 kt late. Seas 19 ft.
Rain late. 
.TUE...SW gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 19 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

.SHORT TERM.../through Monday night/ Another active weather
pattern in the works as at least two gale force fronts move across
the gulf. The first of these fronts shows up Sun afternoon through
Mon. Highest winds for the gulf are expected Sun night with gusty
winds reaching the panhandle Mon. Things look favorable for some
gusts to reach 40 mph or more at Yakutat late Sun night as low
level jet strength reaches 50 kt at 850 mb. Only other place where
gusts that high are expected is Skagway where southerly pressure
gradient combined with the frontal forcing should also bring
gusts to 40 mph late Sun night.

This front is also a warm and wet one too. Strong southerly winds
will push warm air into many areas. Expect temperatures to
steadily warm Sun night with many places reaching toward 40
degrees by Mon morning. Many places will have some snow to start
out with for the northern half of the area, but it should change
over to rain rather quickly before the higher precip rates move in.
Snow accumulation should be low except for the extreme northern
inner channels (Klondike and Haines Highways) where the snow will
hang on a little longer but qpf amounts will be lower due to
terrain shadowing. Otherwise, once the rain gets going it is
expected to be heavy. Precipitable water measurements are showing
up to 1.5 inches of PW within the front which is over 200 percent
of normal for this time of year.

Behind this front is another front coming from roughly the same
direction for Mon night. Forecast confidence is not as great with
this one as with the first front due to track and timing issues
that alter how strong the winds will be and when between the
various models. Feel confident enough for gales with this front,
but did not go all the way up to storm force like some of the
stronger solutions were suggesting. This front is also expected to
be warm and wet so heavy rain will be the rule of the day again.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sun night/ Extended continues to
look relatively warm for the first half of the week as a Bering
Sea trough remains in place funneling warm SW flow into the
panhandle. Some changes possible by Wed as the overall pattern
becomes a bit more zonal in nature. The pattern becomes very
murky by late week as some models try to bring a strong storm
northward into the southern panhandle late week (little in the way
of confidence on this scenario as the operational models vary
widely on track and it has no support from the ensembles).

What has a bit more confidence in the late week period is a
general cool down trend as some of the colder air from the Bering
Sea gets drawn eastward. Temperatures will likely get back down
somewhere near freezing for most northern panhandle locations.
Whether that translates to more snow remains to be seen as
suggestions from guidance range from rather dry to wet during that
time period. So precip chances remain at chance during that
period.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from late tonight through Monday morning for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Monday morning for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ042-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041-053.

&&

EAL

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