Gale Warning 33, NWS Juneau, AK

017 
FZAK52 PAJK 231246
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
346 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-240300-
346 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low will move N to be W of Haida Gwaii by Tue 
afternoon. The associated weather front will move N into the 
southern panhandle by Tue evening, then weaken as it moves into 
the central panhandle by Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ041-240300-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
346 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 14 ft. Rain
showers in the evening. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-240300-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
346 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow showers early in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow showers late. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow showers in
the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-240300-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
346 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the morning. Seas 
11 ft. Snow showers in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-240300-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
346 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018
 
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SE swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-240300-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
346 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SE swell. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SE swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SE swell. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

409 
FZAK52 PAJK 240010
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
310 PM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-241815-
310 PM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low W of Haida Gwaii will weaken as it tracks west
through Wed. The associated weather front will move N into the
southern panhandle Tue evening, then weaken as it moves into the
central panhandle by Wed afternoon.  

$$

PKZ041-241815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
310 PM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 13 ft. Rain
showers in the evening. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-241815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
310 PM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing in the evening. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow showers in
the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell shifting to
the W late. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-241815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
310 PM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Snow showers in
the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow
showers in the evening. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-241815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
310 PM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding in the evening. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft late. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
bays and passes. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-241815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
310 PM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SE swell in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft late.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

416 
FZAK52 PAJK 241312
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
412 AM AKST Wed Jan 24 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-250300-
412 AM AKST Wed Jan 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low W of Haida Gwaii will weaken as it tracks NW
through the eastern gulf through Thu. The associated weather 
front over the southern panhandle will weaken as it moves into the
central panhandle by Wed afternoon, then dissipate as it reaches 
the northern panhandle Wed night. 

$$

PKZ041-250300-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
412 AM AKST Wed Jan 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-250300-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
412 AM AKST Wed Jan 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell late. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-250300-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
412 AM AKST Wed Jan 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-250300-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
412 AM AKST Wed Jan 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers in the evening,
then rain showers late.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-250300-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
412 AM AKST Wed Jan 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft
building to 9 ft late. Rain and snow showers late.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
233 PM AKST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this afternoon showing a surface
low in the western gulf that developed through the day and
associated occluded front moving over the panhandle from south to
north. A second front will rotate around the low but will be
oriented more to the north and south and remain along the
panhandle coast this evening then over the northern panhandle
while shearing apart late tonight. The surface low will weaken
through early Tuesday as another tracks up from the N Pacific
moving to the west of Haida Gwaii by Tuesday afternoon. The
leading front from this low will slowly move over the southern
panhandle into Wednesday then crossing over the central panhandle,
while shearing apart, by Wednesday evening.

The first front progressed northward producing showers over the
the southern panhandle starting early this morning then reaching
the central regions by the afternoon. Typical of showers the
intensity has been highly variable with visibility reductions
swinging from less than 1 mile to 10 miles over an hour.
Precipitation transitioned from snow to rain over the south as a
warmer swath of mid level air moved in. Central and northern areas
expected to stay all snow as 850 mb temps remain at or below -2C.
Even with the impressive snow fall rates (out the window it
finally looks like winter) the speed of the advancing front
keeping snow accumulation in the 1 to 2 inch range today with
additional 1 maybe 2 inches tonight. Model soundings indicate a
good convective environment but not a deep saturated layer or an
impressive dendritic growth zone. Higher snow amounts possible if
showers become oriented along a similar track and begin training.
By Tuesday as the Haida Gwaii moves in producing off shore flow
over the central and northern regions precip will diminish and
some clearing skies are possible. Expect precip for the Wednesday
system to also remain as all snow, but once again no significant
QPF values, temperatures in the upper 20's to low 30's keeping
snow ratios low, thus only a few more inches expected.

Winds showing similar variably to precipitation tonight. As the
front moves north wind directions will flip from north to south
briefly before gradient between the Haida Gwaii low and high
pressure over Canada flips winds back north. Increasing gradient
means increasing winds speeds with gales for the northern inner
channels by Tuesday evening and rather strong outflow winds from
Cross Sound and Taku inlet. Components for mountain wave in
Juneau looking favorable so have gusts upwards of 40 to 45 mph in
the downtown and Douglas areas. As the low begin to pull to the
west, pressure gradient will weaken and winds will diminish
through Wednesday.

NAM/GFS were showing good initialization with the precip
coverage. Not much change through Tue for pressure and winds. On
Wed new models runs showing the low center further southeast and
deeper. Blended in more NAM for pop early on. Tricky part of the
forecast was snow totals. Nudged some QPF values down but with the
convective nature kept toward the 1 to 2 inch range for snow,
even if amounts may be closer to 1 inch. Forecast confidence for
the synoptic pattern is above average but lower confidence on
remaining snow totals.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/...Long range period
begins with an upper low south and east of the Gulf of Alaska
moving east towards Washington. Another upper low located over
the northern interior will be tracking south and be over the
northwest Gulf by Thursday morning. Upstream, a building upper
ridge will be situated over the Bering Sea. The upper low will
slowly track south and dominate the gulf by Friday morning. By
this time, the upstream ridge will have strengthened into an
Omega block, with another upper low over the Sea of Okhotsk. By
the end of next weekend, the Omega block remains strong and in
place while the upper low will have continued a slow track south
of the Gulf of Alaska.

The combined effect of the upper low over the gulf and the
building upper ridge to the west will be to advect in colder low
level air over the panhandle. Some modification of this airmass
will occur as it crosses a considerable distance over the open
ocean, but the ridge will prevent any warmer air from the west
from mixing in. 850H temperatures favoring rain on Wednesday and
Thursday during the day south of Frederick Sound, but then become
more supportive of snow all the way south to the Dixon Entrance
overnight both nights and then through at least Saturday.
1000-500 and 1000-850 thicknesses showing a similar pattern.
Daytime highs over the southern half of the panhandle from
Frederick Sound south indicating that there is a good chance that
at least some of the precipitation for this coming week will be in
the form of rain. Otherwise, what precip we do see may be mostly
in the form of snow. No well defined fronts currently being
depicted in medium to long range models, so convective precip
(showers) is anticipated through at least Wednesday night. 12
hour snow totals currently indicating possibly advisory level
snowfall Wednesday for central zones and Wednesday night for
northern zones south of Berners Bay. Convective nature of this
precipitation will cause the snow totals to be a constantly moving
target even as the event unfolds, so stay tuned for updates as the
week progresses.

No significant changes to pressure or winds. PoP and QPF primarily
from NAM Wednesday and Wednesday night with little change for the
remainder of the long range forecast. Daytime highs and overnight
lows generally nudged down slightly for the second half of the
week based on current model spectrum plots. Overall forecast
confidence is average, but below average for snow totals.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-041.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031-033-035-036-042-043-
     051-052.

&&

PRB/Fritsch

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