Gale Warning 3, NWS Juneau, AK

537 
FZAK67 PAJK 111257
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-120700-
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Northerly outflow winds will weaken through Thu night as high
pressure over the Yukon and Northern British Columbia moves east.
A weak front in the eastern gulf will gradually move north 
through Thu night. A second stronger front will move north and 
eventually merge with the first front on Fri. 

$$

PKZ310-120700-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Highest winds northern half. Seas 14 ft. 
Rain early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 14 ft. Rain 
late.
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
21 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

693 
FZAK67 PAJK 120012
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
312 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-121815-
312 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
One gale force front will push into the northeast gulf Thursday 
night and stall. Another gale force front will follow into the 
eastern gulf Friday and Friday night. High pressure across 
Northwest Canada will begin to weaken Friday night. 

$$

PKZ310-121815-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
312 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain late. 
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
20 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

408 
FZAK67 PAJK 121248
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-130700-
348 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force front stalled along the outer coast will merge with
a stronger gale force front moving NE behind the first front on
Friday. The merged front will move across the panhandle Friday
night. High pressure across Northwest Canada will weaken and
move E through Friday night.  

$$

PKZ310-130700-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
348 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 14 ft 
building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the evening. Seas 19
ft.
.SAT...SE gale increasing to 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain late. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

350 
FZAK67 PAJK 130034
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-131845-
334 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A storm force front positioned along the outer coast will weaken 
Friday night ahead of a second storm force front arriving in the 
eastern gulf on Saturday. High pressure across Northwest Canada 
will weaken Friday night. 

$$

PKZ310-131845-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
334 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 19 ft. Rain
early in the evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt increasing to 50 kt. Strongest winds 
northwest area. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt early in the
evening, then diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 22 ft. Rain late. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. SE swell. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
629 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...The northerly outflow regime will begin to
transition to wetter warmer pattern by the weekend. The cold upper
level trough over the central Panhandle continues to propagate
southward this morning. At the same time a short wave trough
pushes northeast across the gulf and Panhandle. With scattered
snow shower activity still ongoing over the central Panhandle,
this short wave could act to enhance the showers and begin to lift
them northward late this morning.

Northerly outflow remains ongoing this morning; however, the
strongest winds have passed and winds will decrease through the
day. Windiest areas remain Lynn Canal, Downtown Juneau, Douglas
Island, and Cross Sound.

A weak weather front will begin to move into the eastern gulf late
tonight; however, precipitation associated with it will remain
offshore. A stronger front will move northeast into the gulf by
Thursday night. This front will produce a widespread precipitation
event over the Panhandle on Friday. Coupled with the cool
temperatures from the ongoing outflow event, precipitation
associated with this front will begin as snow before transitioning
to rain.

Primary changes to the short term forecast involved increasing
shower activity this morning as well as adding isolated showers to
the northern Panhandle tonight as the shortwave passes over. Winds
were increased over the gulf along the approaching fronts; they are
currently capped at 40 kts. Primary guidance was a blend of the
06Z NAM and NAMnest with some input from 00Z GFS.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/ There will be several
transitions over the long-term period starting off with cold and
wet, then warm and wet, and finally warm and dry heading into
Tuesday. The pattern sets up with a ridge axis to the east of the
panhandle and a low tracking northeastward through the Gulf by
Friday. However, some uncertainty is brought into the mix between
individual model runs due to several wave features that will
propagate in between this synoptic scale pattern.

Minimal changes were made to the pressure field and edits to wind focused
mainly in Gulf and local edits due to wind shifts. Again, GFS was
the outlier in wanting to push these next frontal systems farther
north of other solutions.

There will be a large band of WAA late Thursday into early Friday
that will extend from the Aleutian Islands through the southern
panhandle. As a result, weekend temperatures will be quite warm,
or at least warmer than they have been. With the warming trend,
temperatures will peak on Sunday, before dropping down steadily
again. Maximum temperatures were nudged slightly using an EC
bias-corrected blend. Minimum temperatures were kept warmer based
on cloud cover and current WPC guidance. Even 500 mb temperatures
are showing ranges in the negative teens, which is anomalously
warm for this time of year.

As far as precipitation, there will be several changeovers from
rain to snow and back to rain during the Saturday timeframe. The
timing of this remains uncertain. Most models were wanting to go
categorical, but we kept POPs at likely at most for Day 5 onward
using a NBM/WPC blend and SREF early on. We are starting to see
increases in QPF amounts, especially during the late Saturday
timeframe.

Overall, there is not much confidence in model agreement. While
the large-scale pattern seems reasonable, confidence is lower for
individual waves in specific timing and tracking.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031-032.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-033>035-041>043-051>053.

&&

JB/SS

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