Gale Warning 22, NWS Juneau, AK

380 
FZAK52 PAJK 111257
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-120700-
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Northerly outflow winds will weaken through Thu night as high
pressure over the Yukon and Northern British Columbia moves east.
A weak front in the eastern gulf will gradually move north 
through Thu night. A second stronger front will move north and 
eventually merge with the first front on Fri. 

$$

PKZ041-120700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 17 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 23 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-120700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-120700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-120700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft subsiding to 18 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-120700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding to 18 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 14 ft. 

$$

839 
FZAK52 PAJK 120011
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
311 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-121815-
311 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
One gale force front will push into the northeast gulf Thursday 
night and stall. Another gale force front will follow into the 
eastern gulf Friday and Friday night. High pressure across 
Northwest Canada will begin to weaken Friday night. 

$$

PKZ041-121815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
311 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 17 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
18 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-121815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
311 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
19 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-121815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
311 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain in the
evening. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-121815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
311 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt late.
Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft subsiding to 18 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-121815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
311 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt diminishing to gale to 35 kt
late. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding to 18 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 14 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

764 
FZAK52 PAJK 121249
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
349 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-130700-
349 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front stalled along the outer coast will merge with
a stronger gale force front moving NE behind the first front on
Friday. The merged front will move across the panhandle Friday
night. High pressure across Northwest Canada will weaken and
move E through Friday night.  

$$

PKZ041-130700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
349 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas building to 15 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 17 ft.
Rain in the evening. 
.SAT...SE gale increasing to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas 27 ft subsiding
to 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-130700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
349 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 18 ft.
Rain in the evening. 
.SAT...SE gale increasing to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 24 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding
to 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-130700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
349 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing late. Seas 19 ft. Rain in 
the evening.
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 20 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-130700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
349 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 21 ft. Rain
in the evening. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 ft building to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain in
the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft
subsiding to 15 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-130700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
349 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 21 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing late. Seas 22 ft. Rain in 
the evening.
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt increasing to storm force wind to
50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft building to 25 ft in the
afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

610 
FZAK52 PAJK 130033
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-131845-
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force front positioned along the outer coast will weaken 
Friday night ahead of a second storm force front arriving in the 
eastern gulf on Saturday. High pressure across Northwest Canada 
will weaken Friday night. 

$$

PKZ041-131845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft.
Rain in the evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas 27 ft subsiding
to 18 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-131845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt late, then
increasing late. Seas 18 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 24 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding
to 18 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-131845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt late. Seas 19 ft.
Rain in the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-131845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 20 ft. Rain
in the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 21 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt diminishing to gale to 35 kt
late. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft
subsiding to 15 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-131845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 21 ft. Rain
in the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 23 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt late.
Seas 23 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
629 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...The northerly outflow regime will begin to
transition to wetter warmer pattern by the weekend. The cold upper
level trough over the central Panhandle continues to propagate
southward this morning. At the same time a short wave trough
pushes northeast across the gulf and Panhandle. With scattered
snow shower activity still ongoing over the central Panhandle,
this short wave could act to enhance the showers and begin to lift
them northward late this morning.

Northerly outflow remains ongoing this morning; however, the
strongest winds have passed and winds will decrease through the
day. Windiest areas remain Lynn Canal, Downtown Juneau, Douglas
Island, and Cross Sound.

A weak weather front will begin to move into the eastern gulf late
tonight; however, precipitation associated with it will remain
offshore. A stronger front will move northeast into the gulf by
Thursday night. This front will produce a widespread precipitation
event over the Panhandle on Friday. Coupled with the cool
temperatures from the ongoing outflow event, precipitation
associated with this front will begin as snow before transitioning
to rain.

Primary changes to the short term forecast involved increasing
shower activity this morning as well as adding isolated showers to
the northern Panhandle tonight as the shortwave passes over. Winds
were increased over the gulf along the approaching fronts; they are
currently capped at 40 kts. Primary guidance was a blend of the
06Z NAM and NAMnest with some input from 00Z GFS.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/ There will be several
transitions over the long-term period starting off with cold and
wet, then warm and wet, and finally warm and dry heading into
Tuesday. The pattern sets up with a ridge axis to the east of the
panhandle and a low tracking northeastward through the Gulf by
Friday. However, some uncertainty is brought into the mix between
individual model runs due to several wave features that will
propagate in between this synoptic scale pattern.

Minimal changes were made to the pressure field and edits to wind focused
mainly in Gulf and local edits due to wind shifts. Again, GFS was
the outlier in wanting to push these next frontal systems farther
north of other solutions.

There will be a large band of WAA late Thursday into early Friday
that will extend from the Aleutian Islands through the southern
panhandle. As a result, weekend temperatures will be quite warm,
or at least warmer than they have been. With the warming trend,
temperatures will peak on Sunday, before dropping down steadily
again. Maximum temperatures were nudged slightly using an EC
bias-corrected blend. Minimum temperatures were kept warmer based
on cloud cover and current WPC guidance. Even 500 mb temperatures
are showing ranges in the negative teens, which is anomalously
warm for this time of year.

As far as precipitation, there will be several changeovers from
rain to snow and back to rain during the Saturday timeframe. The
timing of this remains uncertain. Most models were wanting to go
categorical, but we kept POPs at likely at most for Day 5 onward
using a NBM/WPC blend and SREF early on. We are starting to see
increases in QPF amounts, especially during the late Saturday
timeframe.

Overall, there is not much confidence in model agreement. While
the large-scale pattern seems reasonable, confidence is lower for
individual waves in specific timing and tracking.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031-032.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-033>035-041>043-051>053.

&&

JB/SS

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