Gale Warning 103, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
305 PM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...Satellite and surface imagery depict a gale force
low over the Kenai peninsula with a weakening front across the
panhandle. Models in good agreement with this low weakening and
drifting W-NW as it slowly fills. Widespread to numerous showers
will continue across the region along with a SChc TSRA over the N
Gulf coast this evening. Modeled instability parameters continue
to support the instability with -LIs and CAPE around 200-300.
Another gale force low will push N into the SE gulf Sat
afternoon/evening pulling the front back to the NW along with
another round of precip. Models continue to show WAA with this low
with majority of panhandle expected to see more liquid than solid
Ptype. Inherited forecast represented this thinking well with
some strengthening of the low moving across the gulf Sat night
with majority of changes limited to local effects.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday/ GFS, NAM
and Canadian models are in better agreement for Sunday, Monday
and Tuesday. After that, ECMWF becomes the more preferred model. With
better confidence in the model trends, adjustments were made to
the mid and long range forecast.

A low in the north Pacific will track into the southcentral gulf
by Sunday, continuing to move up to the northern gulf through the
day. This will prolong precipitation across the Panhandle from
south to north.

Temperatures will be mild reaching daytime highs in the 40s,
resulting in rain as the primary precip type. Overnight lows will
continue to drop down to near or below freezing Sunday night for
much of the Panhandle turning rain back to snow. Then the warmer
air moves in for Monday through Wednesday keeping our overnight
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, resulting in mostly rain.
Will be watching for downsloping that could raise temperatures
even warmer than forecast for early to mid week. With a southerly
flow in the upper levels, snow level will rise to around 3500
feet or higher in many locations but be a bit lower (around 1500
feet) near Yakutat Monday. Snow levels will begin to lower again
Thursday to bring snow back into the forecast, at least during the
overnight and early morning hours.

Southeasterly Gale force winds for area 41-43 quickly diminish
to SCA intensity Sunday morning, spreading northward along the
outer coastal areas stretching up to near Yakutat. As the gradient
slackens and the low moves off to the west Monday, the SCA winds
retreat back to the south. For Tuesday and beyond, the gradient
remains relaxed limiting winds to around 15 kt or less. Wind in
the central gulf will back to the west to northwest on Tuesday and
spread eastward by Wednesday.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
	 Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.
	 Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

BC/KV

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