Wind Advisory 64, NWS Fairbanks, AK

259 
WWAK73 PAFG 251236
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
336 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

AKZ226-260000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-181126T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
336 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...South winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase this morning and remain strong 
  through early afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

717 
WWAK73 PAFG 252230
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
130 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

AKZ226-252330-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-181126T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
130 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

Winds have diminished across the area.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
107 PM AKST Sat Nov 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Warming in the Interior as south flow develops across
the Alaska Range. Tanana Valley Jet has kicked in and will limit
the Gap winds that generally develops with strong south flow.
Cloudy over the interior, heavy snow in the Alaska Range west of
the Richardson Highway tonight. Patchy stratus in the Arctic with
flurries. Temperatures falling to around -30 in the Arctic Plain
in clear areas. On the West Coast offshore flow continues, but a
wave moving up the coast will bring increasing clouds and some
snow to most areas with a slight chance of freezing rain in the
Lower Yukon Delta.

Models...24/12Z solutions are in pretty good agreement short
term, but midrange and extended they are not very good as they
diverge significantly, and that continues a trend that has been
going on for quite a while. Solutions initialized well against the
24/15Z surface analysis. Models continue to struggle with the
smaller features so will need to be more diligent in dealing with
them. Short term will use a blend leaning on the NAM and SREF, and
in the mid and long range will go with more of the Ensemble
blend.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridge is push northwest over the state with
518 heights pushing north to the Brooks Range, and west to the
Nulato Hills. The ridge is ringed by troughing with a 510 dam low
in the southern Beaufort Sea, troughing over the Northwest Arctic
Cast to a 510 dam low over St Lawrence Island to a 502 dam low
400 nm south of Sand Point. A 521 dam low is working its way north
over the Gulf of Alaska as it weakens and will move over the
Alaska range as a decaying shortwave tonight. A 529 dam high will
persist over the Siberian Arctic. The ridging over the state will
remain in place overnight. The low in the Beaufort Sea will push
west as a second center develops and moves to 300 nm north of
Nuiqsut. The low over St Lawrence Island will remain stationary,
while a 510 dam low south of the Western Aleutians will merge with
the low south of Sand Point as it moves to 200 nm southwest of
Sand Point by Sunday afternoon. A strong shortwave will develop
south of the Gulf of Alaska Sunday and move over the Gulf of
Alaska Coast Monday morning, then north over the Interior Monday
afternoon and evening. Troughing to the west will broaden as the
low over St Lawrence Island drifts over the Gulf of Anadyr.
Ridging over the state will start to rotate northeast Sunday
evening with the main axis moving to lie over the Arctic Coast by
Monday afternoon. At 850 hpa...Pool of -20C over most of the
Arctic will be pushed north as warmer air moves in south of the
Brooks Range and the -10C isotherm moves to lie along the crest of
the Brooks Range by Sunday night. The 0C isotherm will push north
over the interior to lie from Chalkyitsik to Livengood to Ruby to
Anvik to Sleetmute by Sunday night and stays in that general
vicinity through Wednesday morning.

Surface...Ridge of high pressure extends from a 1041 mb high over
the Siberian Arctic to the Brooks Range. Broad area of low
pressure remains over the Chukchi Sea and south of the Brooks
Range. A 1013 mb low in the Southern Beaufort Sea will weaken and
dissipate by Sunday morning. A 972 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska
will move north and dissipate over Cook Inlet tonight. The primary
low 300 nm south of Sand Point will move to 300 nm southwest of
Sand Point by Sunday afternoon at 960 mb as a 970 mb low develops
south of the Gulf of Alaska. The low 960 mb low will move slowly
east as the 970 mb low moves to the Prince William Sound by Monday
afternoon. By Monday evening the 970 mb low will move to the
Lower Yukon Delta with trough extending southeast to the low 400
nm southeast of Kodiak Island. By Tuesday morning the broad area
of low pressure will cover the area between 35N to 80N, and from
110W to the Dateline.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Flow will remain primarily
onshore from the northeast and east with 1041 mb high in the
Siberian Arctic and broad area of low pressure moving over the
state. Chasing stratus will be the biggest issue short term.
Inland areas will have some fog issues, but localized.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer, but areas with clear skies
will see lows fall into the 20s below. Wind speeds 5 to 20 mph
picking up to 10 to 25 mph Sunday for most areas. Winds south of
Point Lay will increase from the northeast to 35 to 45 mph and
gusting near 60 mph this afternoon and will remain strong through
at least Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Inverted trough over the area
will continue to bring clouds and a decaying front will move north
through the area binging some snow to areas from the Seward
Peninsula south tonight. A break between fronts Sunday afternoon
and night, but will remain mostly cloudy. Cold air being pulled
south over the Bering Strait will create lake effect type snow,
with all the open water, at Diomede, and on St Lawrence Island.
Potential for 3 to 6 inches of snow accumulation over the next
few days at Gambell and Savoonga. There is also potential for
some freezing spray at Savoonga with the strong and persistent
northeast winds building waves offshore. Snowfall amounts tonight
on the mainland will be up to 3 inches with the heaviest amounts
in the Nulato Hills and Bendeleben Mountains. Temperatures warming
a couple degrees Sunday, then steady the next couple day. Winds
generally offshore along the coast from the northeast and will
remain strong with winds gusting near 60 mph from Point Hope to St
Lawrence Island on the outer Capes. Inland winds generally less
than 10 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy conditions will prevail as a
dissipating low spreads clouds north tonight. Look for some breaks
in the clouds Sunday. A front will move across the Interior with a
possible flurry in the Middle Tanana Valley, but expect the front
to reform to the north with snow developing in the Upper Yukon
Valley and spreading north to the south slopes of the Brooks
Range. Snowfall along the Dalton Highway will be up to 2 inches
from Livengood to Wiseman. Heavy snow west of the Richardson
Highway in the Alaska Range with up to 18 inches of new snow
tonight through Sunday afternoon and another 2 to 6 inches Sunday
night. Along the Richardson Highway there will be up to 3 inches
of new snow tonight and 1 inch Sunday night. Tanana Valley Jet is
kicking winds up around Delta Junction and expect that to continue
into Sunday afternoon. The Tanana Valley Jet inhibits the
development of gap winds in the Alaska Range unless it is very
strong, so do not expect winds to be quite as strong as previously
thought. Gusty winds to 30 mph along the Dalton Highway from
Seven Mile to Gobblers Knob with some drifting snow. Temperatures
across the area will be a few degrees warmer with the south flow.
Paved roads that have not been cleared or do not get much traffic
will remain slippery.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Broad area of weak low
pressure will be over the state with snow over most of the West
Coast with a low parked in the Norton Sound Region, and some light
snow or flurries in the Central Interior. The Arctic Coast will
be either clear or low stratus ceilings with onshore flow as
strong high pressure pushes south to the Brooks Range from high in
the Arctic. The Eastern Interior will be mostly clear to partly
cloudy. Temperatures will be cooling a few degrees in most areas.
&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

SDB NOV 18