Gale Warning 108, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
440 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Warmer in the interior and North Slope, snow and blowing snow
along the West Coast and Bering Strait, windy in the Alaska Range.

Models...The 00z models initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread is limited in the short range and is reasonable in the mid
range as well as the long range with good agreement on position
and track of large scale features into the middle of next week.

Aloft at 500 mb...a longwave trough remains over the eastern
Bering Sea and well as Western Alaska as an upper level ridge
remains entrenched over the Yukon and extends south into British
Columbia. A strong shortwave will move north along the back side
of the upper level ridge and will produce strong winds over the
eastern Alaska Range this morning and afternoon over the eastern
Alaska Range and will produce snow over the West Coast of Alaska
as a front rotating northwest around the low pushes into the lower
YK Delta Monday morning and pushes northwest over the Seward
Peninsula Monday afternoon and evening with generally 1 to 3
inches of snow expected in these areas.

The upper level trough digs south and east over the eastern Bering
Sea forcing the upper level ridge over the Yukon to retreat to
the east as a series of fast moving shortwaves move north over
northern Alaska Monday and again on Wednesday. Southerly flow over
the Alaska Range will produce above normal temperatures for most
of the interior as well as limiting precipitation east and south
of Manley Hot Springs through most of the week. Periods of snow
will move north through the Lower YK Delta and West Coast as well
as the western portions of the North Slope this week as a series
of shortwaves move north through the longwave pattern.

Gusty north winds will continue through the early part of the
week in the Bering Strait, St Lawrence Island and the southern
Portions of the Chukchi Sea as low pressures systems move up the
west Coast. Will need to monitor St Lawrence Island for the
possibility for freezing spray to impact the north coast as a
strong and gusty north winds will continue through much of the
week. Gusty winds are expected along the northern foothills of the
Alaska Range and through the Alaska Range Passes as a strong
shortwave passes over the mountains this morning and as the
Tanana Valley Jet continues today near Delta Junction.

Precipitation will be limited by drying downslope winds over much
of the central and eastern interior with alternating periods of
mostly cloudy and partly cloudy skies which will be the primary
driver of temperatures this week in the interior. Expect strong
inversions in the interior valleys as temperatures warm aloft and
strong radiational cooling cools the valley floors especially with
partly cloudy skies.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC NOV 18