Wind Advisory 35, NWS Fairbanks, AK

661 
WWAK72 PAFG 110111
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
511 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

AKZ227-110800-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-180511T0800Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
511 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...Near Alaska Range Passes.

* WINDS...Southeast 25 to 35 mph gusting to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will diminish late tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

261 
WWAK72 PAFG 110457
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
857 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

AKZ227-111700-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-180511T1700Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
857 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...Near Alaska Range Passes.

* WINDS...Southeast 25 to 35 mph gusting to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will diminish early Friday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

182 
WWAK72 PAFG 111150
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
350 AM AKDT Fri May 11 2018

AKZ227-120200-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-180512T0200Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
350 AM AKDT Fri May 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...Near Alaska Range Passes.

* WINDS...Southeast 25 to 35 mph gusting to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Strong gusty winds will continue near the Alaska Range
  into the evening before diminishing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

036 
WWAK72 PAFG 112033
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1233 PM AKDT Fri May 11 2018

AKZ227-112145-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-180512T0200Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
1233 PM AKDT Fri May 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory.

Strong winds have diminished and the advisory has been cancelled.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
238 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Weather focus remains very warm temperatures in the interior and
the attending water level rises on interior rivers and possible
ice jams. Low Relative Humidities, Warm temperatures and winds are
elevating Fire Weather concerns over the southern interior.

Aloft at 500 mb a strong ridge continues to build north and
northwest into the eastern, central and western interior.
Temperatures at 850 mb are expected reach near 10 above over the
southern interior. This will produce surface temperatures in the
low to mid 70s. Freezing levels will also remain high, between 7
and 9 thousand feet over the southern interior and will promote
abundant melt off of the snowpack even at higher elevations.
Night time temperatures will remain at or above freezing and will
only slow the rate of runoff at night. Cooler temperatures are
expected over the interior as cooler air aloft as well as clouds
move into the area Friday. This will help slow the melt off rate
over the interior.

A tight gradient develops between the building high pressure
ridge over eastern Alaska and a persistent upper level low
pressure system over the Bering Sea. The strong gradient will move
over the Alaska Range and will enhance the thermal trough in
place over the southern interior. Gusty winds are found over the
southern interior with this trough as it strengthens in the
afternoons. Advisory level winds are expected to develop along the
northern foothills and through the Alaska Range passes Thursday
morning as a mountain wave develops over the Alaska Range Thursday
morning and continues through Friday. Wind advisories have been
issued for these areas.

An inverted trough over the Bering Strait will produce scattered
showers along the west coast Thursday. A 972 mb moves rapidly
north out of the northern Gulf of Alaska on Thursday and will be
located over western Bristol Bay Friday morning. A front wrapping
around the low will move over the lower YK Delta Thursday evening
and Friday and will be the focal point for scattered showers.

As the low moves northward a tight gradient develops between the
low in the Bering and a 1028 mb high pressure system to the north
of the McKenzie Delta over the eastern North Slope. Wind gusts to
50 mph are expected to develop over the eastern North Slope
Thursday afternoon and continue into Thursday night. Areas of
blowing snow are expected in these areas.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis.
Model spread in the short range is minimal and has improved
especially with the track and strength of the low moving north
into Bristol Bay. Model spread is reasonable in the extended
range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag criteria will likely be met for Minimum Relative
Humidity and strong winds for zones 223 and 226 Thursday
afternoon into Friday. Fire weather watches have been issued for
these zones. Temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 70s on
Thursday and will likely meet red flag conditions for Temperatures.
Red Flag criteria for Low Relative Humidity, and for Winds are
also likely to be met Thursday afternoon and evening for zones 222
and 224. Increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures will move
in over the interior Friday and the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Above normal temperatures this week will
result in significant melting of the higher elevation snowpack in
the central and eastern Interior. Temperatures will soar into the
upper 60's and mid 70's by Thursday. This will cause rapid runoff
of the snowpack in the hills north and east of Fairbanks.
Automated snow gages in the upper Chena River basin indicate there
is approximately 7 to 16 inches of water stored in the remaining
snowpack.

Water levels on rivers draining the hills north and east of
Fairbanks will have significant rises later this week. This
includes the Chena, Little Chena, Salcha, and Chatanika Rivers.
Water could approach bankfull levels in some locations this
weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Fire Weather Watch for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC MAY 18