Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

708 
WWAK63 PAFG 111137
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
337 AM AKDT Fri May 11 2018

AKZ223-226-111245-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180512T0200Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-Eastern Alaska Range-
337 AM AKDT Fri May 11 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
506 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Lots of potentials today, from Ice Jams, to Runoff
Flooding, to Red Flag conditions, to High Surf. The warm
conditions are combining with warm overnight temperatures, and
breezy conditions to maximize the snow melt across the interior
which in turn is bringing river levels up. Strong winds developing
across the Alaska Range will persist into Saturday before settling
down and with the dry conditions and low Relative Humidity in some
areas Red Flag conditions may develop. Showery conditions will
continue on the West Coast and most of the Western Interior. The
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range will remain quiet with some patches
of stratus and fog at times.

Models...Doing well with the short term solutions, but there are
fairly significant differences showing up by the 48 hours point.
The 10/00Z solutions initialized well against the 10/06Z analysis
with no significant differences. Will use a blend for the short
term, with a lean toward the NAMdng for surface winds.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging continues over the Eastern Interior
with a 561 dam center over the southeast Yukon Territory that
extend northwest over Point Barrow to Wrangel Island. A 548 dam
center near Graham Island BC will cutoff the center over the Yukon
Territory today as it moves southeast to Eastern Washington. A 510
dam center that has been near the Central Aleutians the last few
days will move south of the Aleutians as it weakens to 516 dam by
this afternoon, and a 519 dam center will move north over outer
Bristol Bay at 515 dam this evening. This will push the ridge to
the northeast with the axis rotating to lie from the southeast
Yukon Territory over Demarcation Point and northwest across the
Arctic. Several shortwaves will swing around the center near
Bristol Bay with the strongest wave moving over the Gulf of Alaska
Coast Thursday night, the Alaska Range Thursday morning, and into
the Interior by Friday afternoon as it breaks down the ridging to
the east. As the shortwave moves over the interior the low center
will move to Nunivak Island at 524 dam, and by Saturday afternoon
it will be over the Bering Strait as it weakens to 530 dam.
Ridging will persist over the Arctic with and a closed 547 dam
center will develop over the Eastern Arctic near 75N Friday
afternoon. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm is north and west of most of
the forecast area with the +10C isotherm making a short lived
appearance in the Middle and Upper Tanana Valley today and Friday
before things start cooling off and the 0C isotherm moves north
Saturday, then pushes back to the west over the Central and
Eastern Interior during the afternoons to start next week.

Surface...Broad area of low pressure over the state with the
primary low near the Central Aleutians weakening as a 974 mb low
moves to Sand Point this morning at 970 mb, then north to the
Bering Strait by Saturday evening as it weakens to 1002 mb. High
pressure persists over the Arctic with a 1021 mb center 500 nm
north of Prudhoe Bay. Leeside trough and thermal trough north of
the Alaska Range continues to strengthen today with a 1005 mb low
near Northway, and a 1001 mb low near Anderson. Ridging to the
south of the Alaska Range over the Southcentral area, and Copper
River Basin will continue with a 1008 mb bubble high near
Glennallen this afternoon. A strong pressure gradient has
developed across the Alaska Range with strong gusty winds that
will persist into Saturday near the passes. A weather front will
move to the Gulf Coast this afternoon, with a second front over
the coast early Friday morning. The first will move to the Alaska
Range this evening, and reform north of the Yukon River overnight.
The second will move to the Alaska Range Friday morning, and
reform mainly north of the Yukon River late Friday morning.
Downslope drying north of the Alaska Range will keep the most of
the southern interior dry.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mainly patches of fog and stratus
causing some issues today with the forecast. Winds along the coast
will persist from the northeast and east and increase to 20 to 30
mph today, then diminish to 10 to 20 mph tonight as the troughing
over the Plains lifts to the northeast as the ridge slide
northeast. Some gusty winds to 25 mph in the Eastern Brooks Range,
mainly east of the Dalton Highway today will diminish this
evening. No significant movement in the breakup of the Rivers in
the Arctic, but there is some overflow indicated on Satellite
imagery in the Sag River Basin. No significant changes in
temperatures through Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Lows continue to rotate through
the area with the ridging over the Eastern Interior preventing
them from moving east, so cloudy conditions with showers followed
by short breaks, then another round of clouds and showers. Low
will move north to the Bering Strait by Saturday afternoon and may
produce some High Surf along the north shore of North Sound, and
St Lawrence Island. Winds northeast to southeast depending on the
position of the low, with the strongest winds north of the Seward
Peninsula today as a decaying low moves northwest into the Chukchi
Sea and dissipates, and south of the Seward Peninsula Friday as
the nest low moves north to Nunivak Island. Temperatures will
cool a few degrees through Saturday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Generally quiet at the moment, but
that could change significantly in a short time with the strong
winds near the Alaska Range, Relative Humidities falling to the
teens, very warm overnight temperatures with good melting at
higher elevations for the second night in a row. Breakup continues
and with Dawson and Eagle breaking up, all eyes turn to Circle,
and Ft Yukon as the ice makes its way downriver. Rivers are on the
rise, but models are having difficulty with just how much they
will come up, and how fast. Higher elevations along the Denali
Park road and in the Central Alaska Range are in for another round
of snow that may be heavy at times. Around 2 feet of snow is
expected on Denali, with 2 to 6 inches in Polychrome Pass and
Highway Pass. Strong gusty south winds can also be expected near
the passes with gusts around 60 mph. Gusty winds will continue
into Saturday before they diminish. Temperatures will be warm
again today, then cool Friday through the weekend.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Elevated surf along the
northern coast of Norton Sound and St Lawrence Island Saturday as
a low moves north to the Bering Strait.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Near Red Flag conditions today, with a Red Flag
Watch currently in effect. Strong winds are expected to develop
in the Fort Greely Ranges and near Alaska Range Passes, and with
Relative Humidity values expected to fall to the teens and 20s
again today, this may be updated later this morning. No
thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. Rain showers,
cloudy conditions, and cooler temperatures will continue to the
west of Tanana. For the latest Fire Weather information go to
www.weather.gov/arh/fire.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Breakup continues to trudge along, warmer conditions
the last few days has produced a lot of runoff and rivers and
streams are on the rise. Expect rivers and streams to continue to
rise to bankfull in some areas by later today with potential for
some areas to see minor inundation of low lying areas. The
mainstem rivers in the Northern Interior continue with breakup,
Satellite imagery indicates about 60/40 ice vs open water between
Eagle and Fort Yukon in areas not obscured by clouds. For the
latest breakup information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...A slight cooling trend to
start next week with minimum temperatures falling into the upper
30s and highs around 60 from the Tanana Valley south. To the north
lows will fall to the lower 30s, with highs in the lower 50s. All
of that will be under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Fire Weather Watch for AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAY 18