Wind Advisory 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

534 
WWAK72 PAFG 100958
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
158 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

AKZ217-101100-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180411T0200Z/
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Ambler, Shungnak, and Kobuk
158 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
504 AM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Benign weather continues for most of northern AK as a high
amplitude ridge promotes stability across the region. A few areas
of gusty winds in the interior, Brooks Range, and along the
Beaufort coast will comprise the main areas of concern in the next
few days.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The aforementioned mid lvl ridge bisecting the state from north
to south will begin to broaden and strengthen from a localized
maximum approx 300 nm north of Prudhoe Bay. This will serve to
tighten the pressure gradient over the Beaufort coast, resulting
in an increase in east winds across the area Monday into Tuesday.
As the sfc high slides eastward, a weak sfc low will be left in
its wake which will span the Beaufort Coast and act to accelerate
southerly flow through the Brooks Range beginning Monday Night.
Winds in mountain passes could gust up to 30 mph at times.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Despite the presence of a deep 969 mb low in the central Bering,
no weather is expected to affect the coast. Broadening high
pressure over the northern interior will act as a blocking
mechanism and impede the eastward progression of any Bering Sea
storms over the next several days. An exception may be the lower
Yukon Delta as an inverted trough emanating from a North Pacific
low may briefly reach the coast Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
As expected, winds in the higher terrain north and west of
Fairbanks have decreased such that blowing snow and reduced
visibilities are no longer a threat at least for the next several
hours. However, an increase in winds is expected later this
evening thanks to a buildup of high pressure south of the eastern
Brooks Range. Gusts up to 40 mph will be possible and advisories
have been preemptively issued. Mostly clear skies will be the
prevailing condition across the region through late Tuesday thanks
to the persistence of a mid lvl ridge. However, as the ridge
broadens over the North Slope, a weak low is expected to exploit a
weakness in the ridge to the south and track westward from Canada
into the Central Interior by early Wednesday. This will be
accompanied by an increase in cloudiness and the presence of a few
snow showers across the southeastern interior late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Model guidance maintains reasonable agreement through late Tuesday
but quickly begins to exhibit large discrepancies thereafter.
ECMWF guidance continues to favor the quick westward acceleration
of a weak low across the interior followed by a return to a
predominantly high pressure driven pattern in the latter part of
the week. The GFS however continues to suggest that this low will
stall over the central interior and deepen, eventually merging
with an Arctic trough Thursday. I believe the concensus lies
somewhere in the middle of these solutions. While the GFS
deepening of the low over the central interior seems excessive, it
is not unreasonable to expect a merger with the Arctic trough as
it dips southward Thursday. This would result in the intrusion of
snow accompanied by a much cooler airmass well southward into the
Central Interior this weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

COWMAN APR 18