Brisk Wind Advisory 122, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
343 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A relatively quiet weather pattern is expected across northern
Alaska for the next few days. The main forecast challenges early
this week will be wind related, particularly along the Beaufort
Sea coast beginning on Monday. Winds will also pick up on Monday
night in Brooks Range passes as well as in the higher terrain of
the northern Interior.

Aloft, at 500 mb, most of northern Alaska is currently sitting
under the influence of a high amplitude ridge. Both the ECMWF and
the GFS move an upper level low from east to west across the
state just north of the Alaska Range this week; however, they
differ on the details. The ECMWF brings the low across the state
quickly, while the GFS moves the low into the central Interior
where it stalls and persists through the end of the week. Both the
ECMWF and the GFS have a trough diving south along the Canadian
Border next weekend allowing colder air to filter south. The GFS
is however, much more aggressive with binging in the colder air
aloft.

At the surface, A 1030 mb high currently remains in place over
the Beaufort Sea. This area of high pressure will slowly slide to
the east over the next few days. A trough of low pressure will
develop north of the Brooks Range. This will tighten up the
pressure gradient along the eastern Beaufort Sea coast. A weak
area of high pressure will also build eastward just south of the
Brooks Range on Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Current satellite shows some areas
of fog and/or low stratus along the coast. This will continue
tonight into Monday. With the trough of low pressure developing
just north of the Brooks Range the pressure gradient will tighten
up along the eastern Beaufort Sea coast causing winds to increase.
This will likely produce blowing snow in areas east of Barrow;
however, we hold off on issuing any Winter Weather Advisories for
blowing snow because current thinking is that the visibility will
not drop down below one half mile. The pressure gradient across
the eastern Brooks Range will tighten up on Monday resulting in
southerly gap winds developing in the passes. By Monday night the
gusts in the passes will approach 40 mph with localized areas of
blowing snow. Again, will hold off on issuing a Winter Weather
Advisory because of lower confidence in the visibility dropping
below one half mile. Winds will die down in the Brooks Range
Tuesday night.

Central and Eastern Interior: Gusty winds have developed in the
higher terrain north of Fairbanks this afternoon. Thus, I put out
a Wind Advisory for zones 219, 220 and 221 for this evening. I
expect winds will die down this evening. Monday night we expect
winds to increase again over summits north and west of Fairbanks
with gusts as high as 40 mph possible again. There may be
localized blowing or drifting snow over some of the summits with
the gusty winds. It will be a mainly dry week across the Interior
this week. We do introduce some chance/slight chance PoPs into the
southeastern Interior Tuesday into Wednesday with the the upper
level low sitting over top of the Interior; however, any
precipitation is expected to be fairly limited and the main impact
will be increased cloud coverage.

West Coast and Western Interior: Quiet weather with no measurable
precipitation is expected for the upcoming week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

APR 18