Small Craft Advisory 202, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
438 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The initial round of coastal and winter related hazards are
gradually winding down this morning across the West Coast and
Northwest Interior. Will see a break in the action through
Thursday morning before the next Bering Sea storm takes aim at the
West Coast. Elsehwere, relatively quiet and seasonal weather
across much of Interior Alaska. Latest models solutions are in
good agreement through late Thursday night before they begin to
diverge with the next system in the Bering Sea.

Aloft, at 500 mb, an upper level trough extending south along the
West Coast will move east across Interior Alaska and will be over
the Eastern Interior and Brooks Range by Friday morning. A strong
shortwave will move out from Kamchatka Peninsula into the western
Bering later this morning and then continue east across the Bering
Sea to be over St Matthew Island Thursday evening. A second strong
shortwave will move over the Kamchatka Peninsula Thursday morning
and then will merge with the Bering Sea low by Friday morning. The
resulting new low will dig south towards the Aleutians through
Saturday morning. A weak shortwave will eject east from the old
low Friday morning and then travel over Interior Alaska through
Friday night. Upper level ridge will build north from the northern
Pacific Ocean and over Eastern Alaska this weekend.

At the surface, a 1004 mb low over the Bering Strait coast will
move east to be over Kotzebue Sound by this evening and then
weaken. A 998 mb low 325 miles north of Wrangel Island will move
north to be a 1004 mb low over 80N 170W by Thursday afternoon. A
996 mb low over the far western Bering Sea will move east to be
over St Michael Island early Friday morning. By Friday morning,
significant differences between model solutions regarding the
formation of a secondary low and the eventual track and strength
of the two lows as they meander around the Bering Sea Friday and
Friday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...Latest round of winter and
coastal hazards are currently winding down as the responsible low
weakens and drifts east inland. Should see water levels in Norton
Sound and the Yukon Delta coast decrease as winds continue their
downward trend this morning. Over the Chukchi Sea coast north of
Cape Krusenstern winds have significantly decreased this morning
and this trend will continue allowing conditions to improve today.
Heavy snow in the upslope areas of the Kobuk and Noatak Valleys
will continue through this morning and then slowly taper off this
afternoon. A brief break in the activity through Thursday morning.
After Thursday morning, our attention turns to the next
approaching Bering Sea storm, which has the potential to bring
another round of winter and coastal hazards to the West Coast
Friday into the weekend. Solutions have come together a little bit
more and now have the low center close to St Lawrence Island by
Friday morning. In this scenario, could see conditions similar to
the recent storm with strong south to southwest winds Friday and
water level rises of 4 to 6 feet in Norton Sound and Yukon Delta
coast. This low also has the potential to bring another round of
heavy precipitation to the West Coast developing Thursday morning
over St Lawrence Island and the Yukon Delta coast.

Eastern and Central Interior...High thin overcast skies will
continue over the next couple of days. There is the chance to see
some light snow, initially over Bettles to Tanana later today and
then spreading east across the area through late Thursday. A
second round potentially arriving over the Central Interior early
Friday morning and then spreading east Friday. May see up to an
inch of light snow with the second round. Temperatures will
moderate a little over the next couple of days.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Southerly flow will persist through
late this evening before becoming light and variable tonight. High
thin overcast east of Utqiagvik will continue into this evening
with stratus and areas of fog returning tonight to the coast as
the flow becomes light and variable. As a shortwave moves east
across the Interior will see light snow develop over the Eastern
Brooks Range and Eastern Beaufort Sea tonight then continue into
Thursday night. Temperatures will cool over the area into the
weekend to near normal values.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Another Bering Sea storm
is advertised to move across the Bering Sea towards the West
Coast. Solutions have come together a little bit more and now
have the low center close to St Lawrence Island by Friday morning.
In this scenario, could see conditions similar to the recent
storm with strong south to southwest winds Friday and water level
rises of 4 to 6 feet in Norton Sound and Yukon Delta coast, which
will peak by Friday evening. Some uncertainty remains as the
models still have differences, especially after Friday afternoon
when the low rotates south towards the Aleutians. Will have to
continue to monitor this situation. Residents in these areas
should continue to monitor the developing situation for the latest
forecasts and possible statements. Please go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks for additional details and updates.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ217.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ214.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

LTH NOV 18