Gale Warning 99, NWS Fairbanks, AK

673 
FZAK52 PAFG 081202
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-090200-
302 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 984 mb low in the western Bering Sea will move east to be 150 
nm west of St Lawrence Island by Friday morning. A 999 mb low 550
nm west St Matthew Island will dive south to be over Atka by
Saturday morning. 

$$

PKZ200-090200-
Norton Sound-
302 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to
5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-090200-
Dall Point to Wales-
302 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...N winds 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-090200-
Kotzebue Sound-
302 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-090200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
302 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.  

$$

Nov 18

489 
FZAK52 PAFG 082319
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
219 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-091530-
219 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 984 mb low 300 nm southeast of St. Lawrence Island will move
northeast to be 100 nm west of the Island by early Friday. A 1002
mb low will move south to Adak by early Saturday.

$$

PKZ200-091530-
Norton Sound-
219 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-091530-
Dall Point to Wales-
219 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-091530-
Kotzebue Sound-
219 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-091530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
219 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.  

$$

Nov 18

069 
FZAK52 PAFG 091207
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
307 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-100200-
307 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 989 mb low 130 nm west of St. Lawrence Island will move to be 
160 nm north of the Island this evening. A 1003 mb low will move 
south to Adak by early Saturday.

$$

PKZ200-100200-
Norton Sound-
307 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-100200-
Dall Point to Wales-
307 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...N winds 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-100200-
Kotzebue Sound-
307 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-100200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
307 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.  

$$

Nov 18

048 
FZAK52 PAFG 092304
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
204 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-101530-
204 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1000 mb low currently moving northeast through the Bering 
Strait will weaken to a trough Saturday morning. A 974 mb low will
move northwest into Bristol Bay Saturday night and move west to
near Dutch Harbor as a 990 mb low Sunday. 1038 mb high pressure 
system currently over Siberia will build northeast to near Wrangel
Island Sunday morning and will continue to move east to be 
located 200 nm north of Point Barrow Monday.

$$

PKZ200-101530-
Norton Sound-
204 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Freezing rain. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-101530-
Dall Point to Wales-
204 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing rain. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.SUN...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Fog and freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-101530-
Kotzebue Sound-
204 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding.
Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-101530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
204 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing rain.
Freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

CCC Nov 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
438 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The initial round of coastal and winter related hazards are
gradually winding down this morning across the West Coast and
Northwest Interior. Will see a break in the action through
Thursday morning before the next Bering Sea storm takes aim at the
West Coast. Elsehwere, relatively quiet and seasonal weather
across much of Interior Alaska. Latest models solutions are in
good agreement through late Thursday night before they begin to
diverge with the next system in the Bering Sea.

Aloft, at 500 mb, an upper level trough extending south along the
West Coast will move east across Interior Alaska and will be over
the Eastern Interior and Brooks Range by Friday morning. A strong
shortwave will move out from Kamchatka Peninsula into the western
Bering later this morning and then continue east across the Bering
Sea to be over St Matthew Island Thursday evening. A second strong
shortwave will move over the Kamchatka Peninsula Thursday morning
and then will merge with the Bering Sea low by Friday morning. The
resulting new low will dig south towards the Aleutians through
Saturday morning. A weak shortwave will eject east from the old
low Friday morning and then travel over Interior Alaska through
Friday night. Upper level ridge will build north from the northern
Pacific Ocean and over Eastern Alaska this weekend.

At the surface, a 1004 mb low over the Bering Strait coast will
move east to be over Kotzebue Sound by this evening and then
weaken. A 998 mb low 325 miles north of Wrangel Island will move
north to be a 1004 mb low over 80N 170W by Thursday afternoon. A
996 mb low over the far western Bering Sea will move east to be
over St Michael Island early Friday morning. By Friday morning,
significant differences between model solutions regarding the
formation of a secondary low and the eventual track and strength
of the two lows as they meander around the Bering Sea Friday and
Friday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...Latest round of winter and
coastal hazards are currently winding down as the responsible low
weakens and drifts east inland. Should see water levels in Norton
Sound and the Yukon Delta coast decrease as winds continue their
downward trend this morning. Over the Chukchi Sea coast north of
Cape Krusenstern winds have significantly decreased this morning
and this trend will continue allowing conditions to improve today.
Heavy snow in the upslope areas of the Kobuk and Noatak Valleys
will continue through this morning and then slowly taper off this
afternoon. A brief break in the activity through Thursday morning.
After Thursday morning, our attention turns to the next
approaching Bering Sea storm, which has the potential to bring
another round of winter and coastal hazards to the West Coast
Friday into the weekend. Solutions have come together a little bit
more and now have the low center close to St Lawrence Island by
Friday morning. In this scenario, could see conditions similar to
the recent storm with strong south to southwest winds Friday and
water level rises of 4 to 6 feet in Norton Sound and Yukon Delta
coast. This low also has the potential to bring another round of
heavy precipitation to the West Coast developing Thursday morning
over St Lawrence Island and the Yukon Delta coast.

Eastern and Central Interior...High thin overcast skies will
continue over the next couple of days. There is the chance to see
some light snow, initially over Bettles to Tanana later today and
then spreading east across the area through late Thursday. A
second round potentially arriving over the Central Interior early
Friday morning and then spreading east Friday. May see up to an
inch of light snow with the second round. Temperatures will
moderate a little over the next couple of days.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Southerly flow will persist through
late this evening before becoming light and variable tonight. High
thin overcast east of Utqiagvik will continue into this evening
with stratus and areas of fog returning tonight to the coast as
the flow becomes light and variable. As a shortwave moves east
across the Interior will see light snow develop over the Eastern
Brooks Range and Eastern Beaufort Sea tonight then continue into
Thursday night. Temperatures will cool over the area into the
weekend to near normal values.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Another Bering Sea storm
is advertised to move across the Bering Sea towards the West
Coast. Solutions have come together a little bit more and now
have the low center close to St Lawrence Island by Friday morning.
In this scenario, could see conditions similar to the recent
storm with strong south to southwest winds Friday and water level
rises of 4 to 6 feet in Norton Sound and Yukon Delta coast, which
will peak by Friday evening. Some uncertainty remains as the
models still have differences, especially after Friday afternoon
when the low rotates south towards the Aleutians. Will have to
continue to monitor this situation. Residents in these areas
should continue to monitor the developing situation for the latest
forecasts and possible statements. Please go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks for additional details and updates.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ217.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ214.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

LTH NOV 18