Small Craft Advisory 196, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Stormy in the Bering Sea and West Coast next week with mostly dry
and seasonal temperatures in the central and eastern interior as
high pressure continues over the interior. The models continue to
show some spread in the track and strength of a deep low pressure
system expected to move northeast in the western Bering Sea
Monday and Tuesday.

Upper levels at 500 mb...there is a a weak low pressure system
moving east along the eastern Aleutian Islands and the Alaskan
Peninsula as an upper level high pressure system continues to
build west from the Yukon over the eastern and central Interior
today. A strong shortwave digs along southern portion of Alaska
and will move east across the Gulf of Alaska, while the allowing
the upper level ridge build over the western Bering Sea and
producing a favorable upper level environment to help produce a
strong surface low pressure system in the western Bering Sea
Monday and Tuesday while strengthening an upper level ridge over
the central interior Sunday and the eastern interior Monday and
Tuesday.

At the surface...The first in a series of Bering Sea surface low
pressure system is expected to move east off of the Kamchatka
Peninsula on Monday as a 978 mb low and then move northeast to be
located 200 nm south of St Lawrence Island. It will continue to
move northeast to be located over the Bering Strait or the Western
Seward Peninsula as a 990 mb low Wednesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...Although there are still model
differences in track and strength, all of the forecasted tracks of
Bering Sea storm will produce strong southwest winds over a long
fetch for at least 24 hours as the storm approaches and will
produce strong westerly winds on the back side of the storm as the
low pressure departs to the north and east. Latest model guidance
indicates this system could bring elevated water levels along
south and west facing shorelines south of the Bering Strait
including the Bering Strait, Norton Sound and St Lawrence as well
as the lower YK Delta Coast Monday and Tuesday. In addition to the
coastal hazards and winds with this system, there is snow and
blowing snow that will develop particularly across Seward
Peninsula on Monday and move up along Baird Mountains extending
areas from Notatak to Kiana and towards Kotzebue by Tuesday.
Preliminary snow totals may range from 2 to 9 inches across
Seward Peninsula and 3 to 7 inches for Baird Mountains region for
snow totals on Monday and Tuesday. Areas like Nome to Golovin
expecting lower snow amounts and uncertainty on Monday afternoon
as precipitation transitions from snow to rain. Highest snow
amounts are expected in the hills of Seward Peninsula potentially
up to 9 inches. Still uncertainty with this system moves across
the area as snow and blowing snow will start Seward Peninsula
along with elevated waters for high surf potential across in
Norton Sound. The GFS model shows system moving closer to shore
with tighten gradient winds and transition of snow to rain or
freezing rain on Monday afternoon across Yukon Delta and with
potential rain and snow mix areas from Nome to Golovin. Basically
a winter storm is coming and residents should watch for updated
forecasts with more confidence and clarity in forecast as we move
into early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...The surface pressure gradient will
continue to tighten tonight and extend across the north slope as
a surface low pressure system develops over the Bering Strait with
the high pressure in the Arctic. The surface pressure gradient will
cause winds along the Chukchi Sea coast continue across Point Lay
to Wainwright with the stronger winds shifting northward toward
Barrow Sunday night into Monday. Expect southeast to easterly
winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Some concern that
may reach near strong wind headline in Barrow for brief period
overnight Sunday but expecting majority of the area to remain
below 40 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...Relatively quiet weather
anticipated for Central and Eastern Interior as high pressure
builds over the area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...As mentioned in the
Western Coast section a strong Bering Sea surface low pressure
system is expected to move east off of the Kamchatka Peninsula on
Monday. Although there area still model differences in track and
strength, all of the forecasted tracks of Bering Sea storm will
produce strong south to southwest winds over a long fetch for at
least 24 hours as the storm approaches and will produce strong
westerly winds on the back side of the storm as the low pressure
departs to the north and east. Latest model guidance indicates
this system could bring elevated water levels along south and west
facing shorelines south of the Bering Strait including the Bering
Strait, Norton Sound and St Lawrence as well as the lower Yukon
Delta coast on Monday and Tuesday. Residents in these areas should
continue to monitor the developing situation for the latest
forecasts and possible statements. Please see
https/www.weather.gov/afg/.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.
&&

Nov 18