Gale Warning 92, NWS Fairbanks, AK

967 
FZAK69 PAFG 042321
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
221 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-051345-
221 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 1025 mb high pressure system centered 350 nm of Utqiagvik will 
move east to be centered 400 nm west of Banks Island and 
strengthen to 1031 mb Monday. A 1001 mb low will move north from 
the Chukotsk Peninsula and into the Chukchi Sea Sunday night and 
will move to be over Wrangel Island by Monday afternoon.

$$

PKZ500-051345-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
221 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-051345-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
221 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ510-051345-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
221 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

Nov 18

241 
FZAK69 PAFG 051252
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-060200-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 1029 mb high pressure system centered 500 nm of Banks Island
will move east to be centered over Banks Island at 1040 mb 
Wednesday morning. A 998 mb low over the Chukotsk Peninsula will 
move north to be over Wrangel Island by Tuesday morning. A trough 
of low pressure will persist over the Arctic Coast through 
Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ500-060200-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow in the morning. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain after
midnight. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-060200-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ510-060200-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

Nov 18

623 
FZAK69 PAFG 052347
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
247 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-061315-
247 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 1029 mb high pressure system centered 500 nm of Banks Island
will move east to be centered over Banks Island at 1040 mb 
Wednesday morning. A 998 mb low over the Chukotsk Peninsula will 
move north to be over Wrangel Island by Tuesday morning. A trough 
of low pressure will persist over the Arctic Coast through 
Wednesday.

$$

PKZ500-061315-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
247 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt with gusts to around 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
Snow showers after midnight. 
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-061315-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
247 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ510-061315-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
247 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PROTON Nov 18

518 
FZAK69 PAFG 061206
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
306 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-070200-
306 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 1034 mb high pressure system centered 500 nm of Banks Island 
will move east to be centered over Banks Island at 1040 mb 
Wednesday morning. A 998 mb low over Wrangel Island will move
north today. A 1004 mb low will move over the Seward Peninsula
Wednesday morning and then shift east to be over Kotzebue Sound
Wednesday afternoon. A trough of low pressure will persist over 
the Arctic Coast through Wednesday.

$$

PKZ500-070200-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
306 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers 
in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-070200-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
306 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ510-070200-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
306 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

Nov 18

429 
FZAK69 PAFG 062301
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
201 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-071330-
201 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 1035 mb high pressure system 300 nm of Banks Island will move 
east to be centered over Banks Island at 1037 mb Wed. A 997 mb low
over Wrangel Island will move north today. A 996 mb low SE of St 
Lawrence Island will move over the Seward Peninsula Wed as 1004 mb
and shift east over Kotzebue Sound Wed afternoon. A trough of low
pressure will persist over the Arctic Coast through Wed.

$$

PKZ500-071330-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
201 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-071330-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
201 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ510-071330-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
201 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

Nov 18

445 
FZAK69 PAFG 071155
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
255 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-080200-
255 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 998 mb low 325 nm of Wrangel Island will move north to be a 1004
mb low centered over 80N 170W by Thursday afternoon. A 1004 mb low
over the Bering Strait coast will move east and weaken by this
evening. A weak ridge of high pressure will build over the North
Slope late Wednesday night and Thursday.

$$

PKZ500-080200-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
255 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-080200-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
255 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ510-080200-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
255 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

Nov 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Stormy in the Bering Sea and West Coast next week with mostly dry
and seasonal temperatures in the central and eastern interior as
high pressure continues over the interior. The models continue to
show some spread in the track and strength of a deep low pressure
system expected to move northeast in the western Bering Sea
Monday and Tuesday.

Upper levels at 500 mb...there is a a weak low pressure system
moving east along the eastern Aleutian Islands and the Alaskan
Peninsula as an upper level high pressure system continues to
build west from the Yukon over the eastern and central Interior
today. A strong shortwave digs along southern portion of Alaska
and will move east across the Gulf of Alaska, while the allowing
the upper level ridge build over the western Bering Sea and
producing a favorable upper level environment to help produce a
strong surface low pressure system in the western Bering Sea
Monday and Tuesday while strengthening an upper level ridge over
the central interior Sunday and the eastern interior Monday and
Tuesday.

At the surface...The first in a series of Bering Sea surface low
pressure system is expected to move east off of the Kamchatka
Peninsula on Monday as a 978 mb low and then move northeast to be
located 200 nm south of St Lawrence Island. It will continue to
move northeast to be located over the Bering Strait or the Western
Seward Peninsula as a 990 mb low Wednesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...Although there are still model
differences in track and strength, all of the forecasted tracks of
Bering Sea storm will produce strong southwest winds over a long
fetch for at least 24 hours as the storm approaches and will
produce strong westerly winds on the back side of the storm as the
low pressure departs to the north and east. Latest model guidance
indicates this system could bring elevated water levels along
south and west facing shorelines south of the Bering Strait
including the Bering Strait, Norton Sound and St Lawrence as well
as the lower YK Delta Coast Monday and Tuesday. In addition to the
coastal hazards and winds with this system, there is snow and
blowing snow that will develop particularly across Seward
Peninsula on Monday and move up along Baird Mountains extending
areas from Notatak to Kiana and towards Kotzebue by Tuesday.
Preliminary snow totals may range from 2 to 9 inches across
Seward Peninsula and 3 to 7 inches for Baird Mountains region for
snow totals on Monday and Tuesday. Areas like Nome to Golovin
expecting lower snow amounts and uncertainty on Monday afternoon
as precipitation transitions from snow to rain. Highest snow
amounts are expected in the hills of Seward Peninsula potentially
up to 9 inches. Still uncertainty with this system moves across
the area as snow and blowing snow will start Seward Peninsula
along with elevated waters for high surf potential across in
Norton Sound. The GFS model shows system moving closer to shore
with tighten gradient winds and transition of snow to rain or
freezing rain on Monday afternoon across Yukon Delta and with
potential rain and snow mix areas from Nome to Golovin. Basically
a winter storm is coming and residents should watch for updated
forecasts with more confidence and clarity in forecast as we move
into early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...The surface pressure gradient will
continue to tighten tonight and extend across the north slope as
a surface low pressure system develops over the Bering Strait with
the high pressure in the Arctic. The surface pressure gradient will
cause winds along the Chukchi Sea coast continue across Point Lay
to Wainwright with the stronger winds shifting northward toward
Barrow Sunday night into Monday. Expect southeast to easterly
winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Some concern that
may reach near strong wind headline in Barrow for brief period
overnight Sunday but expecting majority of the area to remain
below 40 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...Relatively quiet weather
anticipated for Central and Eastern Interior as high pressure
builds over the area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...As mentioned in the
Western Coast section a strong Bering Sea surface low pressure
system is expected to move east off of the Kamchatka Peninsula on
Monday. Although there area still model differences in track and
strength, all of the forecasted tracks of Bering Sea storm will
produce strong south to southwest winds over a long fetch for at
least 24 hours as the storm approaches and will produce strong
westerly winds on the back side of the storm as the low pressure
departs to the north and east. Latest model guidance indicates
this system could bring elevated water levels along south and west
facing shorelines south of the Bering Strait including the Bering
Strait, Norton Sound and St Lawrence as well as the lower Yukon
Delta coast on Monday and Tuesday. Residents in these areas should
continue to monitor the developing situation for the latest
forecasts and possible statements. Please see
https/www.weather.gov/afg/.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.
&&

Nov 18