Small Craft Advisory 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
231 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The models are in good overall agreement with the main synoptic
scale pattern through early next week. A ridge building north
over the Bering Sea today and will continue to build through
the weekend. A shortwave will move east across the western
north slope tonight and continue to track to the east and will be
over the eastern North Slope Saturday night and Sunday. Another
shortwave will track across the Interior Saturday evening bringing
a shot of snow for the Middle Tanana Valley. The ridge in the
Bering will strengthen on Monday and by Tuesday will stretch
almost to the North Pole. A corresponding deep trough will develop
over the Yukon Territory by Monday. On Tuesday a cold 518 dam low
will push southward into the western Interior and deepen to 509
dam by Wednesday afternoon. This low will then slowly retrograde
to the west through the remainder of the week.

Surface...A 1004 mb low moves north and east out of Siberia to be
located 150 nm west of Wrangel Island Friday evening track
eastward on Saturday. A frontal boundary will sweep across the
north slope bringing snow and gusty winds Friday evening and will
push over the Beaufort Sea coast and into the Interior on
Saturday. A 1040 mb high will build over the Bering sea and build
northward over the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior: Winds have ramped up along
the west coast with the strongest winds along the Bering Strait
where gusts as high as 45 mph are expected. Local blizzard
conditions expected along the coast near Wales. Winds along the
coast will die down after midnight tonight as the front moves
east. Blizzard warnings still in effect for zones 213 and 207
along with Winter Weather Advisories for zones 208 and 209. These
will expire by 6 AM Saturday. Snow will works its way into the
western Interior with 2 to 4 inches of snowfall expected in the
Western Interior on Saturday north of Galena with areas south of
Galena seeing less than two inches.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Frontal boundary associated
with the 1004 mb low mentioned above will sweep across the
western north slope bringing snow and gusty winds Friday evening
and Saturday. Southwest winds 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts near
Cape Lisburne. Currently Lisburne gusting to near 60 mph.
Winter weather advisories have been issued for zones 201 through
zone 203. A winter storm watch has been issued for the potential
blizzard conditions near Barter Island on Sunday. Snowfall
amounts around the 2 to 4 inch range with higher amounts over the
Eastern Brooks range through Sunday morning. The west to northwest
winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will favor the
development of a low level barrier jet along and north of the
eastern brooks range foothills and eastern coastal areas of the
North Slope Saturday night and Sunday. The barrier jet will
produce strong winds on the surface.

Central and Eastern Interior: Some light snow showers this
afternoon, mainly southeast of Fairbanks. Up to an additional
inch of snow is expected in the area around Delta Junction.
Snow showers will be winding down this afternoon Snowfall is
expected as the front dives south across the Interior Saturday
into early Sunday. 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is expected across
the Interior as the front moves through. For Fairbanks, the
heaviest snowfall looks to move through during the evening hours
on Saturday. Models are showing some stronger 925 mb winds north
of Fairbanks Saturday evening. This will likely cause some blowing
snow, particularly over the summits of the Steese, Dalton and
Elliott Highways. Any lingering snowfall will taper off Sunday
evening.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ204.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ208-
AKZ209.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

JK MAR 18