High Surf Advisory 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
700 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a long wave trough over the
Bering Sea and a long wave ridge over the eastern Pacific and
Mainland AK will become higher amplitude today and Sun as short
wave energy drops south over the Bering Sea and into the Western
Gulf of Alaska. A series of strong short wave troughs will rotate
from the Gulf of Alaska north over Mainland Alaska and gradually
cause the long wave trough to progress over Mainland AK by late
Tue and Wed. What this means is that above normal temperatures and
periods of winds and snow will persist over most of Northern
Alaska through Tue, and then transition to a colder and drier
pattern from Wed through next weekend with temperatures falling
to near normal south of the Brooks Range by the second half of
the week.

Surface...
A 1016 mb low 50 nm north of the Bering Strait will move to
Kivalina as a 1025 mb low by 3pm Sat, and then weaken slowly
through Sun. A warm front stretching from the low to Ambler to
Denali will move to Kivalina to Anaktuvuk Pass to Fort Yukon by
3pm Sat, to Kivalina to Umiat to Old Crow by 3am Sun, and then
dissipating over the North Slope on Sun. Light snow associated
with the front will diminish to flurries and fog south of the
front. Snow along the front will taper off tonight and Sun. Expect
no more than 1 inch of snow with the front.

A 998 mb low in the central Bering Sea will move south today.
Southerly flow over the northern Bering Sea and Norton Sound will
become east today as a result, and elevated surf from the YK Delta
to the Bering Strait will diminish this morning as a result.

A strong low in the southern Gulf of Alaska will move to Bristol
Bay Sat night as a 975 mb low, and then move southwest on Sun.
A warm front associated with this feature will move to the Bristol
Bay and Gulf of Alaska Coasts by 3am Sun, to Bethel to Denali then
east along the Alaska range by 3pm Sun, to Bethel to Fairbanks to
Eagle by 3am Mon, and to the YK Delta to Galena to Eagle by 3pm
Mon. Expect NE winds 30-40 kt to develop over the West Coast Sun
ahead of this front with 55kt over zone 213. Expect E winds 20-30
kt ahead of and with the front over the Interior Sun into Mon.
Expect snow and blowing snow to move over the Interior with the
front Late Sun and Mon. Could see mixed precipitation with the
front over SW AK Sun night and Mon, but the strong low level flow
is expected to keep a deep cold layer at the surface of 1000-2000
feet, so any precip that melts is likely to refreeze before
hitting the ground. This will need to be watched.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft and similar solutions through 3am
Mon. Start to see differences in short wave details Mon pm with
the GFS showing a deeper low in the Gulf of Alaska Mon PM. At this
time favor the deeper GFS solution Mon PM and Tue due to the
strong dynamics over the Gulf of Alaska Mon and Tue.

At the surface at 06Z Sat, all models initialize several MB too
weak on the low in the central Bering, and several MB too weak on
the high centered over Northway. This results in winds over the
West Coast and southern Interior being several KT stronger than
models indicate today.

Models differ in short wave details from Mon through next weekend,
but due agree on long wave pattern developing a long wave trough
over mainland AK by mid-week and persisting into next weekend.
Expect temperatures to be warm over northern AK through early
next week, then falling to near normal from the middle of next
week through next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Very strong NE flow
along the West CoaSt Sun through Tue is not expected to cause any
issues. Water levels should be below normal, so high waves near
St Lawrence Island should break well off shore.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning for AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

&&

JB NOV 18