Gale Warning 100, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
312 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather for western Alaska with coastal hazards and strong
winds along the west coast and through the Bering Strait and St
Lawrence Island.

Models, The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z
surface analysis and verified well against the 18z surface
analysis. Model spread is limited in the short range both between
model families as well as from run to run. Model spread increases
dramatically early next week and continues to have large spread in
the long range.

Aloft at 500 mb, a deep but broad longwave over the western Bering
Sea will continue to deepen and dig south and east as a strong
shortwave digs south over the Aleutians Saturday and into the
northern Pacific Sunday. An upper level ridge builds north over
the eastern Gulf of Alaska, the eastern interior and Yukon Sunday
as well as building north and east out of Siberia toward the
Chukchi Sea. This produces a very amplified pattern that will
lead to an active weather patter over much of Alaska.

On the surface, a 1000 mb low currently over the western Bering
Sea will continue to weaken into a trough as a low in the northern
Gulf of Alaska moves northwest into Bristol Bay as 974 mb low
moves Saturday and then moves west and weakens to 990 near Dutch
Harbor on Sunday. A 1038 mb high pressure system currently over
Siberia will move north and east to near Wrangel Island Sunday
morning and will continue to build and move east to be located
200 nm north of Point Barrow on Monday. The pressure gradient
between the high pressure north of the Bering Strait and the low
muffing into Bristol Bay will produce strong winds over northern
Bering Sea, therewith Bering Strait, and along the coast from
Point Hope to the lower YK Delta beginning Saturday night and
will continue into mid week especially along the coast north of
Cape Krusenstern. Strong Wind Headlines have been hoisted along
much of the coast with gusty winds anticipated to develop late
Saturday night. St Lawrence Island is anticipated to be in the
strongest gradient with northwest winds 35 to 45 with gusts to
over 60 mph anticipated. A High Wind Watch has been issued for St
Lawrence Island beginning early Sunday morning and continuing
through Monday Afternoon. Strong winds will likely continue into
Wednesday but fall below warning criteria on St Lawrence Island.

The duration of the strong winds combined with a relatively long
fetch will likely produce elevated water levels and beach erosion
particularly along north and east facing shores of the southern
Chukchi Sea, Kotzebue Sound, the Bering Strait, Norton Sound and
the Lower YK Delta. The greatest threat for coastal impacts is the
northern coast of St Lawrence Island. Northeast winds of 35 to 45
mph with gusts to over 60 mph over 48 hour period will likely
produce elevated surf and water levels as well as minor beach
erosion. People with interest near the coast should continue to
monitor for the latest forecasts and possible statements at
www.weathr.gov/fairbanks, and be prepared to take protective
actions.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The duration of the
strong winds combined with a relatively long fetch will likely
produce elevated water levels and beach erosion particularly along
north and east facing shores of the southern Chukchi Sea,
Kotzebue Sound, the Bering Strait, Norton Sound and the Lower YK
Delta. The greatest threat for coastal impacts is the northern
coast of St Lawrence Island. Northeast winds of 35 to 45 mph with
gusts to over 60 mph over 48 hour period will likely produce
elevated surf and water levels as well as minor beach erosion.
People with interest near the coast should continue to monitor for
the latest forecasts and possible statements at
www.weathr.gov/fairbanks, and be prepared to take protective
actions.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ213.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CCC NOV 18

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1215 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

AKZ211>214-101500-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Including Nome, White Mountain, Golovin, Unalakleet, Stebbins,
St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, Shaktoolik, Gambell, Savoonga,
Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, Diomede, Mountain Village,
Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay,
Marshall, Nunam Iqua, and Pitkas Point
1215 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...Elevated Surf Through 7AM Saturday...

Elevated surf is now occuring along the West Coast of Alaska from
the Yukon Delta to the Bering Strait. Waves can be expected to
wash to the top the beaches in this area and cause minor beach
erosion. Surf should subside by 7am Saturday.

At midnight Friday night, tide gages at Nome and Unalakleet were
showing water levels of 3 feet above normal tides. These elevated
water levels, combined with winds pushing waves onshore are
causing the elevated surf. The surf will subside early Saturday as
the winds and waves decrease.

JB