Gale Warning 94, NWS Fairbanks, AK

360 
FZAK69 PAFG 272353
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
253 PM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-281345-
253 PM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 1032 mb high 500 nm NW of Wrangel Island with ridging extending
east to near Banks Island will remain in place while a 990 mb low
over Norton Sound weakens through Wednesday.

$$

PKZ500-281345-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
253 PM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow in the evening.
Freezing fog through the night. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-281345-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
253 PM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ510-281345-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
253 PM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

Nov 18

620 
FZAK69 PAFG 281155
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
255 AM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-290130-
255 AM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 1036 mb high 500 nm NW of Wrangel Island with ridging extending
east to near Banks Island will remain in place while a 990 mb low
over Norton Sound weakens and drifts over the Bering Strait
through Thursday. A weak low will remain over the McKenzie Delta
through Thursday.

$$

PKZ500-290130-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
255 AM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 35 kt with gusts to around 50 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow in the evening.
Freezing fog through the night. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt with gusts to around 45 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt with gusts to around 45 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Freezing fog and blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-290130-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
255 AM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ510-290130-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
255 AM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

CCC Nov 18

404 
FZAK69 PAFG 282342
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
242 PM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-291500-
242 PM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A high pressure ridge extends east from the Siberian Arctic at 80N
to the Canadian high Arctic. A weather front spanning the northern
coastline will weaken through Thursday.

$$

PKZ500-291500-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
242 PM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog through the
night. Snow in the evening. Snow after midnight. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Blowing snow in the morning.
Freezing fog through the day. Snow in the afternoon. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-291500-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
242 PM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ510-291500-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
242 PM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

Nov 18

186 
FZAK69 PAFG 291310
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
410 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-300115-
410 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A high pressure ridge extends east from the Siberian Arctic at 80N
to the Canadian high Arctic. A weather front spanning the northern
coastline will weaken today. A 996 mb low just west of the Bering
Strait will weaken and merge with a 980 mb low moving north into
the Gulf of Anadyr this evening.

$$

PKZ500-300115-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
410 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt with gusts to around 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Freezing fog and blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt with gusts to around 45 kt. Snow in the
evening. Freezing fog through the night. Blowing snow after
midnight. Heavy Freezing Spray. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt with gusts to around 40 kt. Blowing
snow. 
.SAT...E winds 35 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ505-300115-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
410 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ510-300115-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
410 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

CCC Nov 18

476 
FZAK69 PAFG 300045
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
400 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-301300-
400 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...No synopsis as all areas are mostly
ice-covered.

$$


PKZ500-301300-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
400 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ505-301300-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
400 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ510-301300-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
400 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

Nov 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
428 AM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Another active day with snow and blowing snow on the North Slope
especially along the coast today and tonight and a slight pattern
shift that will lead to a strong storm moving north into the
Bering Sea Friday and Saturday.

Aloft, at 500 mb a 506 DAM low currently located just south of
the Bering Strait will weaken and retreat north and west as an
upper level ridge builds temporarily over the central Bering Sea
Thursday ahead of an upper level low that deepens to become the
anchoring low as the longwave reestablishes itself over the
western Bering Sea and provides an environment ripe for deep
cyclogenisis over the southern Bering Sea late in the week. A
series of weaker shortwaves will continue to move north along the
back side of a ridge currently over the Yukon and will provide
periods of strong winds through the Alaska Range passes and
northern foothills and will continue to keep temperatures well
above normal for most of northern Alaska through the week.

On the surface an inverted trough extends north and west from a
972 mb low currently over Kodiak Island. The trough extends along
the west coast and through the Bering Strait into the southern
Chukchi Sea and is the focus for snow and blowing snow today and
tonight. A strong gradient between the low over Kodiak Island and
a 1030 mb high pressure system near the pole continues to produce
strong winds as well as falling snow along the coastal areas of
the North Slope. Ongoing Winter Weather Advisories remain on track
with both the winds and snow expected to diminish late tonight.
Blowing snow continues to reduce visibilities to one half mile or
less at times along much of the north coast.

In the central and eastern interior warming and drying down slope
winds continue to keep temperatures well above normal especially
above the valley inversions. Expect mostly cloudy skies in the
southern interior and a slight chance of light snow over the
northern interior today. Most of the interior will have a slight
chance of light snow Wednesday night and Thursday.

The inverted trough over the west coast will be the focus for
light snow today and Wednesday for the West Coast and Western
interior where 1 to 3 inches of snow are expected.

Extended Range Forecast, Wednesday and Thursday will be the
relative quiet before a strong storm moving east off of the
Kamchatka Peninsula into the Western Bering Sea Thursday merges
with a rapidly deepening low pressure system moving north over
Dutch Harbor into the southern Bering Sea Friday Morning as a 980
mb low. The low continues to move north to be located 150 nm
northwest of Nunivak Island as a 965 mb low Friday evening and
continues to deepen around 955 mb as it passes just west of St
Lawrence Island Saturday morning. This storm has the potential to
produce very strong winds, snow and blowing snow to much of the
west coast including the lower YK Delta, Norton Sound and the
Bering Strait Friday and Saturday. The strong winds will bring the
potential for elevated water levels especially along south and
west facing coastlines. Computer models continue to differ on the
track and strength of this storm. Small differences in the track
of this storm will produce significant differences on the weather
and coastal impacts for the west coast. Continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong area of low
pressure is expected to north through the central or eastern Bering
Sea Thursday and Friday and will bring the potential for strong
winds and elevated water to Gambell, the Bering Strait as well as
Norton Sound Friday and Saturday. The models differ on the track
and strength of this storm. Small differences in the track of this
storm will produce significant differences on impacts for the
west coast. Continue to monitor.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC NOV 18