Brisk Wind Advisory 180, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
428 AM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Another active day with snow and blowing snow on the North Slope
especially along the coast today and tonight and a slight pattern
shift that will lead to a strong storm moving north into the
Bering Sea Friday and Saturday.

Aloft, at 500 mb a 506 DAM low currently located just south of
the Bering Strait will weaken and retreat north and west as an
upper level ridge builds temporarily over the central Bering Sea
Thursday ahead of an upper level low that deepens to become the
anchoring low as the longwave reestablishes itself over the
western Bering Sea and provides an environment ripe for deep
cyclogenisis over the southern Bering Sea late in the week. A
series of weaker shortwaves will continue to move north along the
back side of a ridge currently over the Yukon and will provide
periods of strong winds through the Alaska Range passes and
northern foothills and will continue to keep temperatures well
above normal for most of northern Alaska through the week.

On the surface an inverted trough extends north and west from a
972 mb low currently over Kodiak Island. The trough extends along
the west coast and through the Bering Strait into the southern
Chukchi Sea and is the focus for snow and blowing snow today and
tonight. A strong gradient between the low over Kodiak Island and
a 1030 mb high pressure system near the pole continues to produce
strong winds as well as falling snow along the coastal areas of
the North Slope. Ongoing Winter Weather Advisories remain on track
with both the winds and snow expected to diminish late tonight.
Blowing snow continues to reduce visibilities to one half mile or
less at times along much of the north coast.

In the central and eastern interior warming and drying down slope
winds continue to keep temperatures well above normal especially
above the valley inversions. Expect mostly cloudy skies in the
southern interior and a slight chance of light snow over the
northern interior today. Most of the interior will have a slight
chance of light snow Wednesday night and Thursday.

The inverted trough over the west coast will be the focus for
light snow today and Wednesday for the West Coast and Western
interior where 1 to 3 inches of snow are expected.

Extended Range Forecast, Wednesday and Thursday will be the
relative quiet before a strong storm moving east off of the
Kamchatka Peninsula into the Western Bering Sea Thursday merges
with a rapidly deepening low pressure system moving north over
Dutch Harbor into the southern Bering Sea Friday Morning as a 980
mb low. The low continues to move north to be located 150 nm
northwest of Nunivak Island as a 965 mb low Friday evening and
continues to deepen around 955 mb as it passes just west of St
Lawrence Island Saturday morning. This storm has the potential to
produce very strong winds, snow and blowing snow to much of the
west coast including the lower YK Delta, Norton Sound and the
Bering Strait Friday and Saturday. The strong winds will bring the
potential for elevated water levels especially along south and
west facing coastlines. Computer models continue to differ on the
track and strength of this storm. Small differences in the track
of this storm will produce significant differences on the weather
and coastal impacts for the west coast. Continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong area of low
pressure is expected to north through the central or eastern Bering
Sea Thursday and Friday and will bring the potential for strong
winds and elevated water to Gambell, the Bering Strait as well as
Norton Sound Friday and Saturday. The models differ on the track
and strength of this storm. Small differences in the track of this
storm will produce significant differences on impacts for the
west coast. Continue to monitor.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC NOV 18