Gale Warning 26, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
420 AM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Run to run solutions have shown better agreement each
day, and it has improved further into mid range each day. 25/00Z
solutions continue that trend with very good agreement on the high
amplitude ridge building to the west and moving over the state mid
week. Solutions lack a bit on the details as shortwaves moving
through the flow around the low aloft are hard to distinguish in
the noise. At the surface solutions are in better agreement now
with the low dropping out of the high Arctic to the Northwest
Arctic Coast, then moving east over the Arctic Plains and
dissipating. With high amplitude ridge building over the state
through the week solutions are in good agreement on the cooling
trend that will extend to the weekend. Solutions continue to show
a snowy pattern into mid week over much of the forecast area. Will
use a blend with a lean toward the SREF probabilities to produce
at least likely wording in the Fairbanks area today through
Wednesday. Better agreement on precipitation amounts so will lean
on a blend for the short term.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad area of lower heights around a 473 dam
low over the Beaufort Sea has pushed west of the Dateline over
the Arctic, and southwest over mainland Alaska and the Eastern
Bering Sea. A shortwave extending from the low to the high Russian
Arctic will swing south to the Chukchi Sea this evening with a
482 dam low developing in the Chukchi Sea. The wave continues to
rotate southeast tonight and will lie from the low over the
Beaufort Sea, over Prudhoe Bay to a 488 dam low over Ambler, and
south over Cape Newenham. The wave will continue to rotate east
and southeast over the Yukon Territory by Wednesday morning. A 535
dam high over the New Siberian Islands will move southeast over
Siberia and merge with ridging that will be swinging north over
the Western Bering Sea Tuesday morning to create a high amplitude
ridge that will continue to rotate east to lie over the Eastern
Bering Sea by Wednesday morning, extending northwest over the
Siberian Arctic. The low over the Beaufort Sea weakens Tuesday
night and Wednesday and drifts north over 80N allowing the ridge
to slowly slide east, and by Thursday morning it will lie from the
north Pacific over Bristol Bay and over the Northwest Arctic
Coast to high in the Arctic. By Friday morning it will extend
north over Cook Inlet to Nuiqsut and north to the high Arctic. A
long wave trough will move over the Eastern Bering Sea Friday. At
850 hpa...-10 isotherm remains generally south of the forecast
area, but as the surface low moves along Alaska Range today it
will push over the southern fringe of the forecast area with a
warm bump in the temperatures from Fairbanks south. After that
warm bump today, temperatures will fall about 10C by Tuesday
morning, and those colder temperatures will hang on over the
Central and Eastern Interior through the week.

Surface...A broad area of low pressure over the Arctic extends
south over the Eastern Bering Sea and northeast Pacific this
morning. A 974 mb low persists over the Eastern Beaufort Sea with
a weather front over the Arctic Coast. A low that was in the high
Arctic Yesterday has moved to 300 nm northwest of Wainwright at
972 mb this morning and will move near Point Lay this evening. A
low moved east across the Central Bering Sea Sunday and is over
the Lower Yukon Delta this morning at 980 mb. The low will
continue east to the Fortymile Country by this afternoon at 981
mb. Weak high pressure will persist over the south slopes of the
Brooks Range today, moving east into the Yukon Territory tonight.
As the low moves east into the Interior today weak high pressure
will build over the lower Yukon Delta this morning, and over the
Western Interior and north slopes of the Alaska Range this
evening. Cold front associated with the low moving to the
Northwest Arctic Coast will move across the Chukchi Sea this
evening, and over the West Coast Tuesday morning. Models disagree
on whether the low will jump the Brooks Range into the Western
Interior, or move east over the Plains, but the cold front will
move into the Western Interior by late tuesday morning, and into
the Central Interior Tuesday afternoon. High pressure moves over
the Eastern Bering Sea and Bering Strait Tuesday night and into
the Western Interior Wednesday. A rapidly developing low and cold
front over the high Siberian Arctic will move to the Dateline
Tuesday morning, and dive to the Northwest Arctic Coast by
Wednesday morning, then dissipates as it moves east along the
Arctic Coast.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Conditions have improved over the
coastal areas this morning as winds have diminished. Expect the
improved conditions to continue with the exception of the
Northwest Arctic Coast where conditions will deteriorate as a low
moves to the area spreading snow and blowing snow across the area.
Strongest winds will be southwest of Wainwright as northwest winds
increase to 25 to 40 mph gusting to 50 mph. Another storm will
move to the Northwest Coast Thursday. Temperatures will continue
to cool.

West Coast and Western Interior...A rapidly moving low has pushed
inland over the Lower Yukon Delta and will continue into the
interior. A low moving to the northwest Arctic Coast will spin a
cold front south over the Chukchi Sea this afternoon, and the West
Coast tonight, then into the Western Interior Tuesday. Snow
tapering off over the Lower Yukon Delta, and Upper Kuskokwim River
Basin later this morning. Snow pushing south over the Seward
Peninsula this afternoon will continue to push inland tonight.
West to northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph, except increasing over
the Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound to 15 to 30 mph as the low
moves over the Northwest Arctic Coast. Winds will diminish by
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures cooling the remainder of the
week.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow will continue into Wednesday
for most of the interior. Heaviest snowfall will be south of the
Yukon River with 2 to 5 inches of new snow expected. Winds
increasing later today, with strongest winds over higher
elevations. Expect winds 5 to 15 mph in the valleys, and 15 to 25
mph in the hills with gusts to 40 mph over the summits in the
White Mountains. Strong winds will produce blowing snow and poor
visibility. Temperatures a few degrees warmer today, then
cooling across the area the remainder of the week.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A 962 mb low will move
into the northwestern Bering Sea by Wednesday night with strong
south winds developing over the Eastern Bering Sea and Bering
Strait Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. Expect winds
gusting to 60 mph in the Bering Strait. Diminished ice coverage
in the area means there is increasing potential for High Surf
Wednesday night and Thursday on Diomede.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Solutions show good agreement
on the ridge moving across the state, but they diverge on what
will happen over the forecast area as the ridge moves over Canada.
Looks like best bet will be to go back to a blend of the Ensemble
means.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ213-
AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB FEB 18