Brisk Wind Advisory 69, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
349 PM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A very deep 474 DM H500 low near Banks Island will weaken slowly
through Thu. Several strong short waves that extend north and west
from this feature will move southeast over Alaska over the next
several days, bringing several strong systems with snow, winds,
and much colder temperatures across northern Alaska through Tue
night.

A strong ridge will build over the West Coast Tue night and over
the Interior Wed and Thu. There will be clearing under this ridge,
and substantially colder temperatures.

Surface...
A 979 mb low 400 NM northeast of Demarcation Point will dissipate
Tue night.

A 982 mb low over Fairbanks will move to Eagle this evening and
east of the Alcan Border by midnight. An occluded front extends
from this low east. Expect another 2 inches of snow this evening
under this low. This is in addition to the 3-6 inches of snow
that has already occurred in the Fairbanks area.

An arctic cold front that extend from this low to Minchumina will
move east to Eagle to Tok this evening, and then move east of the
Alcan Border by midnight. There will be 1-2 inches of snow along
this front with snow diminishing west of the front. Expect west
winds 20g30kt along and trailing the front which will cause
blowing snow over the Eastern Interior, especially over highway
summits.

A 971 mb low 300 NM north of Cape Lisburne will move to 200 NM
east of Cape Lisburne as a 981 mb low by 3am Tue, to Bettles as a
999 mb low by 3pm Tue, to Fort Yukon as a 1018 mb low by by 3am
Wed, and east of Old Crow by 3pm Wed. A cold front that extends
southwest from this low will move along the West Coast by 3am Tue,
to Bettles to McGrath by 3pm Tue, to Fort Yukon to Northway by 3am
Wed, and east of the Alcan Border noon Wed. Expect 1-2 inches of
snow along the low and front. Expect northwest Gales along the
front over the West Coast along with 1/2 mile visibility in
blowing snow from the Bering Strait to Point Lay tonight and Tue.
Winds will drop to 20-30kt as the low and front move inland Tue
and Tue night.

A fourth low will move from the high arctic to 400 NM northwest
of Cape Lisburne as a 1013 mb low by 3am Wed, and to near Barrow
as a 1029 mb low by 3pm Wed then dissipate. Expect a chance of
snow or flurries with this feature.

A fifth and very strong low will move into the southwest Bering
Sea Wed and to to near Anadyr Thu. This will bring snow, blowing
snow, and possible blizzard to zone 213 late Wed and to the West
Coast Thu. Expect SE gales ahead of this front which will cause
high surf in zone 213 Wed night through Fri. Have issued high surf
Advisory for this.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z and at the surface at 18z.
Model solutions similar through 3pm Wed, and remain fairly
similar through 3pm Thu. Favor the GFS Wed night and Thu.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
See high surf for zone 213 Wed night through Fri.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ213-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ235.
&&

JB FEB 18