Gale Warning 123, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
701 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
ALoft...
The long wave pattern consisting of a very deep trough over the
Bering Sea and N Central Pacific with ridge over the Eastern
Pacific extending north along Alcan Border to the Beaufort Sea.
This pattern will progress slowly east through the week as a
series over very strong short waves troughs move NE out of the
long wave and dig into the ridge. Each short wave will pull the
long wave trough gradually east so that the long wave broadens
over mainland AK by Wed.

A short wave that stretches from Barrow to Old Crow will move
northeast this morning. Light snow NE of this trough over the
North Slope will diminish this am west of the trough.

Surface...
A 1004 mb low 100 NM north of Demarcation Point will move north
today. This is causing west winds 15 to 25 mph winds along the
Arctic Coast that will decrease late this morning.

A very strong vertically stacked low just east of Shemya will
move slowly east. An occluded front stretches NE from this feature
to a 958 mb frontal wave low just north of St Paul Island with a
front extending east across Bristol Bay.

This frontal wave low will move to St Matthew Island as a 970 mb
low bu 3pm Sun with a front from the low to Nome to Fort Yukon.
By 3am Mon this low will move to 150 NM southwest of Gambell as a
969 mb low, with the front dissipating along a line from the low
to Point Hope to Barter Island by 3am Mon. NE Gales, 4 inches of
snow and areas of blizzard conditions will occur ahead of the
front along the West Coast today from the Bering Strait south,
with less wind and snow north of the Bering Strait. Expect 4-5
inches of snow along the front over the Western Interior today as
well, with less snow further east. Also expect east winds 10-20 kt
with the front across the Interior, with very strong winds
developing along the Alaska Range after the front moves north this
morning.

A Second strong frontal wave will move to Bristol Bay as a 960 mb
low by 3am Mon, to Deering as a 970 mb low by 3pm Mon, and to
Point Hope as a 979 mb low by 3am Tue. This will bring a second
round of heavy snow and blizzard to the west Coast and Western
Interior Mon.

A third strong low will move to Bristol Bay as a 965 mb low by
3am Tue and to near Kaltag as a 966 mb low by 3pm Tue. This will
bring more snow and winds.

There will be strong chinook winds along the Alaska Range through
Mon night.

There will be a chance of freezing rain along the Alaska Range
tonight through Mon night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft and show similar solutions through
3pm Mon. Mon night and Tue the GFS deepens the 3rd incoming
frontal wave much deeper than the NAM/ECMF/Canadian models. Due to
the low level cold air, which spurs the frontal wave deepening,
coming from Asia across several thousand miles of the N Pacific
which modifies the cold air significantly, it looks like the GFS
is deepening this system too much. For this reason favor the ECMF
for Mon night and Tue, with the NAM and Canadian being more in
line with the ECMF during that period as well.

At the surface at 06Z, the low north of Demarcation Point verifies
4-8 mb deeper than any models indicate. West winds at Barter
Island are much stronger than models indicate as a result and will
remain stronger through noon today. The frontal wave low near St
Paul is several MB deeper than models verify at 06z as well and
may add a few kt to winds along the West Coast this morning.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-
AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

DEC 18