Brisk Wind Advisory 203, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
431 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...A very active weather pattern will continue through
most of the week. A deep low pressure system will move up the West
Coast today and tonight bringing heavy snow, strong winds, and
blowing snow, and warmer temperatures to most of the forecast
area. A second deep low pressure system will move to the area
Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing more snow, strong winds, and
blowing snow. Winter Weather Warnings and Advisories, and High
Wind Warnings have been posted for most locations from the Alaska
Range north and many will continue to at least Tuesday. See below
for more details.

Models...The 31/00Z solutions initialized well against the local
31/06Z surface analysis as far as location and strength of the
major systems in the area. Models continue to be in agreement for
the first 48 hours or so, then diverge significantly. Will be
using a mostly NAM solution for the precipitation, with CONSMOS
for the winds with the exception of areas above 1500 feet which
will be mainly NAM to account for stronger winds.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...The long wave trough contines to lie over
the Dateline with several lows moving north and south near it.
Ridging continues over the Northeast Pacific, British Columbia,
The Yukon Territory, then northwest across the state this morning.
A 498 dam low over Bethel will move northwest over the Bering
Strait as it weakens and merges with the primary 490 dam low that
is just west of the Gulf of Anadyr. A ridge axis that lies from
Eagle to Anaktuvuk Pass to Wales will move north of the Arctic
Coast late this morning and will lie from Banks Island to Wrangel
Island by Tuesday morning. A 485 dam low in the Northern Beaufort
Sea will move north. A 495 dam low is developing over the Central
Aleutians this morning and will move over the Pribilof Islands by
Tuesday morning at 498 dam, while ridging from the Yukon
Terriotory will push back across the state with the axis lying
from Dawson to Nenana to Unalakleet. As ridging moves north over
the Arctic troughing will develop over the Brooks Range and move
over the Arctic Coast tonight and the nearshore waters on Tuesday.
A 503 dam low will develop south of the Alaska Peninsula this
evening and move over King Salmon Tuesday morning at 492 dam with
a strong shortwave extending east over the Gulf of Alaska Coast.
The low will move over Sleetmute Tuesday afternoon and the
shortwave will move over the Alaska Range, and by Tuesday evening
the low will be over the Middle Yukon Valley, and the shortwave
will extend east over Livengood and Chalkyitsik. At 850 hpa...A
few pockets of temperatures around 0C, but generally the forecast
area remains in the -2C to -10C range through Tuesday night. Some
colder air will start being pulled into the West Coast and Western
Interior Wednesday with some -20C temperatures moving over the
Lower Yukon Delta.

Surface...A 996 mb low in the north east Arctic will continue to
move north. Weak high pressure across the Arctic will slide north,
as a 962 mb low near Bethel this morning moves to Shishmaref this
afternoon at 969 mb, and Point Hope tonight at 974 mb. The
associated occludded front will be over the south slopes of the
Alaska Range this morning and moves into the interior by this
afternoon, and to the Brooks Range this evening. A 963 mb low near
Adak will move to the Pribilof Islands at 969 mb as a low in the
North Pacific moves to 200 nm south of Sand Point this afternoon,
and to King Salmon by Tuesday morning at 955 mb. High pressure
will build west over the interior to the Western Interior behind
the front late this evening, and slides north over the south
slopes of the Brooks Range by Tuesday morning. A weather front
will move to the south slopes of the Alaska Range Tuesday morning
and move into the Interior in the afternoon. As the fronts move to
the Alaska and Brooks Ranges tight pressure gradients will
develop with strong gusty south winds developing. The low over
King Salmon will move northeast over the Central Interior by early
Wednesday morning at 974 mb.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Fairly strong northeast to east
winds continue to develop across the area with gusts to around 25
mph. Blowing snow developing that will reduce visibility to less
than one mile at times in most locations today. Snow will move
north into the area this afternoon and evening and winds near the
Brooks Range passes will increase with gusts around 40 mph.
Blowing and drifting snow will create difficult driving conditions
on the Dalton Highway. Temperatures will rise 5 to 10 degrees the
next 24 hours with highs in the single digits above Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Some heavy snow in the Middle
Yukon Valley and north to the Upper Kobuk and Central Brooks
Range. Heaviest amounts will be east of Ambler with up to 12
inches. Around the Middle Yukon Valley 2 to 5 inches is expected,
and up to 4 inches in the coastal areas. Winds will be swinging
around the dial as the low moves up the west coast and will go
from northeast to east to southeast to southwest by the end of the
day. Winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph near
the low, with 15 to 25 mph winds further from the low.
Temperatures warming into the upper 20s and 30s from the Seward
Peninsula south, and into the 20s north of Buckland.

Central and Eastern Interior...Strong Chinook setting up will
bring winds gusting into the 70 mph range near Alaska Range
Passes. Strong winds gusting to around 50 mph in the Delta
Junction area this afternoon and gusts to 40 mph near Tanacross
and the Robertson River this afternoon. Strong winds gusting to 35
to 45 mph over the summits in the Interior will produce blowing
snow that will reduce visibility at times to one half mile. Winds
diminish some this afternoon, but another strong front will move
north across the Alaska Range tonight producing a second Chinook
winds event and protential for more blowing snow. Temperatures are
near their highs for today and will be steady or fall the
remainder of the day. Expect temperatures to react similarly
Tuesday with the high temperature in the morning and steady or
cooling temperatures the remainder of the day as the winds
diminish. Heavy snow will develop north of Fairbanks as the front
reorganizes and 6 to 10 inches of snow along the south slopes of
the Brooks Range west of Chandalar Lake, including areas from the
Koyukuk River north. 3 to 6 inches of snow will fall in the Ray
Mountains, with 1 to 3 inches of snow in the White Mountains.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ224.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-
AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-
AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB DEC 18