Gale Warning 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

553 
FZAK52 PAFG 140013
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
313 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-141530-
313 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front associated with low moving north across eastern 
Russia will move north across the Bering Sea this evening and 
into the Southern Chukchi Sea tonight. High pressure will build
over the west coast on Thursday.

$$

PKZ200-141530-
Norton Sound-
313 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Snow and rain. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-141530-
Dall Point to Wales-
313 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Freezing rain. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-141530-
Kotzebue Sound-
313 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-141530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
313 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt becoming S 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow.
VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

Feb 18

219 
FZAK52 PAFG 141331
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
431 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-150330-
431 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front that currently stretches from a 990 mb low south 
of Wrangel Island to near Point Lay will move north through the
Chukchi Sea today. A 982 mb low will move into the southern Bering
Sea this evening, continuing to move to the north. By Thursday 
afternoon this low will be located 250 NM W of St. Matthew Island 
at 981 mb. By early Friday morning this low will be located over 
Beringovsky, Russia at 985 mb.

$$

PKZ200-150330-
Norton Sound-
431 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-150330-
Dall Point to Wales-
431 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-150330-
Kotzebue Sound-
431 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-150330-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
431 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 30 kt.  

$$

Feb 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
549 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...
An active/progressive pattern will continue for the next few days
across much of northern Alaska. The models are in good agreement
with the overall synoptic pattern out through Thursday. By
Saturday the 00z GFS and ECMWF have major differences in the
overall pattern with the GFS favoring a blocking ridge setting up
for the weekend over the western Interior with a more progressive
pattern returning early next week, while the ECMWF keeps the
progressive pattern through the weekend into early next week.

Central and Eastern Interior: Snowfall will continue this morning
southeast of a line from Ft. Yukon to Minto to Lake Minchumina.
Gradually during the day today snowfall will taper off from west
to east. 1 to 3 inches of additional snowfall is expected in the
aforementioned area today. The front that will bring the next
round of snowfall to the Interior will push into the central
Interior this evening and will move eastward across the Interior
tonight and Wednesday. The second system will bring 4 to 7 inches
of additional snowfall with the highest amounts in the central
Interior. I extended the ongoing Winter Weather Advisories for
zones 220, 221 and 222 to cover the entirety of the second event.
There will be slight break between the first system and the
second system; however I didn't think the break would be long
enough to warrant keeping the original end time. I also issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for 219 for the second system. Gusty
westerly winds are expected today, with the strongest winds just
north of the Alaska range. In the Fairbanks winds of around 10 to
15 mph are expected with a few gusts to around 25 mph. This will
be sufficient to blow snow from previous storms off of trees and
power lines exacerbating impacts from the falling snow. Thursday
night into Friday morning look to be free of measurable
precipitation across the Interior. For the weekend and onward,
current model guidance has major differences in the overall
synoptic scale pattern. The ECMWF brings a several additional
round of snow from Saturday into early next week while the GFS
sets up a blocking high over the western Interior that will limit
precipitation.

West Coast and Western Interior: A weather front moving to the
north and east will reach the west coast today and will move into
the western Interior this evening. This front will bring gusty
winds, snow and blowing snow as it moves through. In the Yukon
Delta, lower Yukon Valley and along the eastern coast of Norton
Sound (primarily south of Unalakleet) freezing rain may mix with
the snow at times. The heaviest snow with this system will be
along the southern coast of the Seward Peninsula as well as in the
preferred upslope regions of zones 208 and 217. Winter Storm
Warnings remain in effect for all of these areas. I opted to
upgrade the inherited Winter Weather Advisory for zone 216 to a
Winter Storm Warning. Areas north of Galena may see up to 11
inches of snowfall with this system. The gusty winds associated
with the front will cause blowing snow. For coastal areas south of
Norton Sound the warmer temperatures may limit the reduction in
visibility due to blowing snow; however, blowing snow will still
be present at times today. Coastal areas north of the Seward
Peninsula will see significant reductions in visibility due to
blowing snow as the front moves through this evening. I opted to
upgrade the inherited Winter Weather Advisories to Blizzard
Warnings for zones 207 and 209. Snowfall will end from west to
east on Wednesday. Another round of precipitation is expected for
areas south of the Seward Peninsula Thursday night and Friday.
Thereafter, the models diverge on how they handle the synoptic
pattern.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Light snow on the north side of the
Brooks Range will taper off today. A weather front will spread
snow from west to east tonight through Wednesday night. Snowfall
amounts for areas north of the Brooks range as this system passes
through will generally be in the 2 to 3 inch range. The pressure
gradient across the eastern Brooks Range will tighten up tonight
as a trough develops just north of the range. As the gradient
tighten up, southerly gap winds will develop tonight and will
continue through late afternoon on Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ211-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

FEB 18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
655 AM AKST TUE FEB 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 AM     SNOW             2 W TWO RIVERS          64.87N 147.17W
02/13/2018  M6.0 INCH        FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER MEASURED 6 INCHES AND STILL SNOWING.
            TEMP AT 530 THIS MORNING OF 25F AND CALM
            WNDS. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

&&

HFL