Brisk Wind Advisory 71, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
508 AM AKST Tue Feb 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Winter related hazards will be the main forecast concern over the
next 24 to 48 hours. Blizzard conditions have developed overnight
for the eastern Chukchi Sea Coast, northern Seward Peninsula
Coast, Baldwin Peninsula, and Selawik Valley, which have prompted
the issuance of a Blizzard Warning. Over Interior Alaska, snow and
winds have let up a little bit early this morning, but expecting
a second round of snow and winds to develop later today as a front
sweeps east over the area. Wind Chill Advisories have been issued
for tonight into tomorrow morning as cooling temperatures
combined with wind will result in values dipping to between 40 and
55 below. A strong Bering Sea Storm will bring strong southeast
winds and the potential for high surf for the Saint Lawrence
Island and Bering Sea Coast Thursday and Friday. The latest model
guidance is in good agreement with features aloft and at the
surface through Friday, before there is increasing spread in model
solutions. The models have been underdoing the wind magnitude
recently and when compared current winds seems to be under done.
Have opted to bump up the winds a little bit above guidance in the
short-term grids.

Aloft...At H500, a 476 dam upper low anchored over the eastern
Beaufort Sea will remain in place through late Wednesday, while a
trough extending southwest from the low over Western Alaska will
swing east over Interior Alaska through Wednesday and then will
move east into Western Canada by Thursday morning. Meanwhile, an
upper level ridge will build over the Bering Sea and Chukotsk
Peninsula and then will shift west to be over the West Coast and
Chukchi Sea Wednesday night and then over Interior Alaska by
Thursday evening. As the upper level ridge shifts east, several
shortwaves are progged move east over the Bering Sea into the West
Coast and will help to flatten the upper level ridge late this
week into the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...A front moving over the
Northwest and Chukchi Sea early this morning has brought strong
gusty west to northwest winds with low visibility at most sites
and blizzard conditions to the Baldwin Peninsula, Selawik Valley
and northern Seward Peninsula Coast. Have upgraded Winter Weather
Advisories for these locations to Blizzard Warnings. Other sites
in the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea Coast have flirted with
blizzard conditions, but winds and low visibility have not
occurred simultaneously. Should see conditions rapidly improve
this afternoon as winds dissipate. The next forecast concern will
come with a strong Bering Sea low and associated front progged to
move into the western Bering Sea Wednesday. Strong southeast winds
and snow will accompany the front as it moves east, reaching Saint
Lawrence Island early Wednesday morning and into the Bering
Strait and Yukon Delta by Wednesday evening. The combination of
winds and snow will likely lead to low visibilities in blowing
snow, potentially blizzard conditons for the Bering Sea and West
Coast Thursday and Friday. The main concern with these strong
winds will be the potential for high surf in ice free waters near
Saint Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast. See Coastal
Hazard section below or High Surf Advisory for additional details.

Eastern and Central Interior...A eastward moving front will bring
another quick shot of snow and gusty winds as it moves over the
area today and this evening. West winds 15 mph gusting to around
30 mph will redevelop over the Central Interior early this
afternoon and the eastern Interior by late this afternoon and
early evening with blowing and drifting snow. Winds will
dissipate tomorrow morning. Cooling temperatures combined with
brisk north winds will result in cold wind chill values to around
55 below this evening into tomorrow morning for the Southeastern
Brooks Range, Upper Koyukuk Valley, and Upper Tanana Valley. As
the upper level ridge builds overhead, skies will clear and
temperatures will cool by 10 to 20 degrees. Coldest morning will
be Thursday morning and then will start to see temperatures
warming into the weekend.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A low moving onshore this morning
has brought a period of strong northwest winds and blowing snow
and low visibility to the Western Arctic Coast. Should see winds
dissipate and conditions improve over the next few hours. West
winds will increase this evening and continue into tonight over
the eastern Beaufort Sea Coast. Will see blowing and drifting
snow, but not expecting visibilities under a mile. Northwest flow
will advect a colder airmass, allowing temperatures to drop by 5
to 15 degrees with the coldest mornings Wednesday and Thursday
mornings.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong low
will move into the northwestern Bering Sea by Wednesday night with
strong southeast winds developing over the Eastern Bering Sea and
Bering Strait Wednesday evening through Friday. Expect winds
gusting 50 to 60 mph in the Bering Strait. Diminished ice coverage
in the area means there is the potential for High Surf Wednesday
night through Friday on Diomede and Saint Lawrence Island. A High
Surf Advisory has been issued for Midnight Wednesday through
Friday afternoon.
&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ224.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ215-PKZ220.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

LTH FEB 18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 PM AKST TUE FEB 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     SNOW             3 SSW FOX               64.91N 147.65W
02/27/2018  M8.0 INCH        FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CURRENT STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION.

&&

AY