Brisk Wind Advisory 41, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
202 PM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Models...There continues to be very good agreement in the short
term from run to run, but the extended periods continue to
struggle with transitioning away from the blocking pattern we have
been in to a more active/progressive pattern. Overall, the 08/12Z
surface solutions initialized well against the 08/18Z analysis
with the exception of the high over the Yukon Territory being
about 5 mb stronger than the solutions.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Omega Block persists. Ridging extends from a
high off the California Coast over Kodiak Island, then northwest
over Point Hope and north of Wrangel Island before turning west
over 73N. Ridging also extends east from McGrath to Chicken and
east across the Yukon Territory. A 468 dam low remains northeast
of Hudson Bay with a trough extending southwest, then northwest
over the Gulf of Alaska Coast. A broad area of lower heights
persists over the Western Bering Sea with several lower height
centers rotating over the Western Bering Sea. A 514 dam low will
develop over the North Pacific and move over the Central Aleutians
by Friday evening, and over the Pribilof Islands by Saturday
evening with troughing extending southeast. A 568 dam closed high
develops over Southcentral Alaska this evening and moves southeast
over the Gulf of Alaska and merges with the high to the south.
The ridge will move to lie over the Eastern Gulf of Alaska, to
Fairbanks, to Point Lay by Friday evening, and shifts to the east
to lie from Yakutat to Point Barrow with a 553 dam center over
Delta Junction Saturday evening. The low over the Pribilofs will
continue up the western flank of the ridge to be over the Gulf of
Anadyr by Sunday morning with the shortwave extending southeast
over Norton sound to Minchumina to Cordova. At 850 hpa...-10C
isotherm has almost exited the state this afternoon with just some
patches of -10C over the Eastern Arctic Coast. Warming
temperatures can be expected into Saturday, then cooling as the
warm air moderates over the area.

Surface...1056 mb high over the Yukon Territory near Dawson this
morning with ridging extending northwest to a 1043 mb high over
the Upper Yukon Flats near Beaver. Ridging also extends north over
the Central Arctic then west over the Siberian Arctic. High
pressure will persist over mainland Alaska, but weaken with a 1047
mb high over the Yukon Territory, a 1045 mb high over the Copper
River Basin, and a 1038 mb high over the Upper Yukon Flats. A 986
mb low in the Central Bering Sea will move northwest and dissipate
over Kamchatka Friday evening. A weak trough north of the Arctic
Coast will be squeezed out as a 1034 mb high over the New Siberian
Islands moves to the Dateline by Friday morning, and to MacKenzie
Bay by Saturday morning. Leeside troughing north of the Alaska
Range will deepen and the pressure gradient in the Upper Tanana
Valley and across the Alaska Range will tighten up tonight and
remain fairly tight into Saturday. A 975 mb low will move to 400
nm south of Nikolski this evening, and to Dutch Harbor by Saturday
morning at 985 mb. The low will continue to the Gulf of Anadyr by
Sunday afternoon as it dissipates. High pressure over the West
Coast will be pushed east as the low moves north Sunday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Weak troughing just offshore is
allowing the decaying front to move around the high pressure over
mainland Alaska. Mostly cloudy conditions for the area, but some
light snow or flurries possible. High pressure builds back over
the Arctic tonight so expect some clearing from Point Barrow east
toward morning. Winds generally southeast to southwest at 10 to 20
mph. Temperatures warming around 5 degrees over the next couple
days.

West Coast and Western Interior...Broad area of low pressure over
the Bering Sea is spinning lows north with the associated clouds
and weather moving over the coast and nearshore waters. Some
higher clouds making it inland, but dissipating as the move over
the high pressure. Northeast to east winds on the coast at 10 to
25 mph with local gusts to around 40 mph. Inland winds will remain
light and variable. Temperatures warming the next couple days.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear continues with strong
high pressure over the area. Generally light winds, except for the
Upper Yukon River Valley around Eagle where southeast winds will
continue to be gusty to around 25 mph through at least Saturday.
Temperatures warming slowly. Locally winds chill in the Eastern
interior down to 50 below.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...Deterministic solutions are
not very good beyond 96 hours, so will lean toward the WPC
guidance which is based on the Ensemble means. With that said,
the temperatures will need to be handled separately.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

SDB FEB 18

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1045 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

AKZ224-090600-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan,
Chicken, and Boundary
1045 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...Extreme High Pressure Over the Southeast Interior...

The sea level pressure equivalent at Northway reached 1054
millibars this morning. This means that altimeters may exceed the
31.00 inch reading in the southeast Interior south of Eagle and
from Dot Lake east. This could affect small aircraft operations in
the southeast Interior.

This high pressure is expected to continue into Friday morning,
then slowly weaken.