Blizzard Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

283 
WWAK42 PAFG 081155
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
255 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018


AKZ213-081300-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180209T0000Z/
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, 
and Diomede
255 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...



$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
132 PM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Very good agreement continues. Run to run solutions
remain consistent except for the extended periods which continue
to struggle to find a solution to break down the blocking pattern
we are in. 07/12Z surface solutions initialized well against the
07/18Z analysis with no significant differences. Continued dry
over most of the forecast area through the week. Continue to use a
blend of the solutions, leaning on the SREF as it provides higher
probabilities where needed.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Omega Block remains in place as ridging
extends from a high in the Eastern Pacific over Kodiak Island to a
549 dam high near Selawik to Wrangel Island, and northwest.
Ridging also extends east from Galena to the Upper Yukon River
Valley, then southeast across the Yukon Territory. A shortwave
over the Northwest Arctic Coast will move over the top of the
ridge this evening and over Canada Thursday. A 468 dam low remains
northeast of Hudson Bay with a trough extending southwest, then
northwest over the Gulf of Alaska Coast. A broad area of lower
heights persists over the Western Bering Sea with a 501 dam low
over Shemya that will loop back around over the Kamchatka
Peninsula Thursday. 549 dam high will merge into the main ridge
axis tonight, then Thursday evening a 566 dam closed high will
develop over Southcentral Alaska then drifts southeast and merges
into the main ridge axis over the Panhandle Coast. A 492 dam low
near the North Pole will drift south to 84N 130W by Thursday
afternoon, then dive south to the M'Clure Strait, then south
across Nunavut. A 515 dam low will develop over the North Pacific
Thursday night and move north into the southeastern Bering Sea by
Saturday morning at 512 dam, continuing north to the Gulf of
Anadyr as it dissipates. A 556 dam closed high will develop over
the Central Brooks Range Saturday, moving south over the interior
Sunday, then merging with the ridge over the northeast Pacific
Monday. Longwave trough will start breaking down the ridging over
mainland Alaska Monday. At 850 hpa...-10C isotherm lies from
Demarcation Point along the crest of the Brooks Range to Atigun
Pass to Denali, then southeast as some warmer air is pulled north
over the west coast and Arctic around the ridge, and cold air is
pulled into the interior out of Canada. As the ridge continues to
retreat southeast, warm air continues to be pulled north, and the
cold air over the interior will retreat back into Canada.

Surface...Ridge of high pressure extends from Alberta Canada to a
1044 mb high in the Yukon Territory to a 1040 mb high near Beaver
then northwest into the Western Arctic. Leeside troughing north
of the Alaska Range persists, but has weakened and the gradient
has relaxed some today. A decaying front that moved up the West
Coast yesterday is moving over the Northwest Arctic Coast, and
will move east over the Arctic Coast tonight. As it gets to the
Eastern Arctic Coast the gradient gets pinched over the area
through Thursday morning. High pressure continues to build over
Interior Alaska tonight with the high over the Upper Yukon Valley
near Dawson YT building to 1052 mb by Thursday morning.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Decaying front will bring some
clouds and light snow or flurries to most of the coastal areas,
but nothing significant. Winds picking up around Kaktovik tonight
will produce some blowing snow that will reduce visibility to less
than one half mile, so will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for
zone 204. Remainder of the area will be clearing toward morning as
the front moves into the Canadian Territories. Winds will be
swinging around to southwest, then west tonight if they have not
already at 10 to 20 mph, except 20 to 30 mph east of Prudhoe Bay.
Gap winds in the Eastern Brooks Range will be diminishing through
the evening and blowing and drifting snow will tapering off.
Temperatures warming around 5 degrees over the next couple days.

West Coast and Western Interior...Some stratus and possibly a
flurry on the Chukchi Sea Coast this evening, otherwise clearing
in the coastal areas and the Lower Yukon Delta. Interior areas
will remain mostly clear and the Upper Kuskokwim Valley will be
clearing overnight as the high pressure builds west. Temperatures
will bottom out tonight, then a slow warming trend the remainder
of the week. Generally light winds inland with northeast to east
winds 10 to 20 mph on the Coast, and 20 to 35 mph on the
Capes and St Lawrence Island.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear continues. Generally
light winds. Temperatures will continue on the cool side through
Thursday then slowly warm.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...Models continue to try and
break down the blocking pattern, and by next week it does look
like that longwave trough will be strong enough to quash the
ridge. Going to lean toward the WPC guidance, except for the
temperatures.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

&&

SDB FEB 18