Brisk Wind Advisory 126, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
202 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A generally quiet weather pattern is still in place for the
forecast area. The only concern continues to be wind along West
Coast and North Slope. The Interior will have a slight shift to
cooler temperatures and the possibility of precipitation, but
nothing significant. Details on all areas are below. Models are
doing just OK, the GFS and NAM continue to run colder than the
ECMWF cooling temperatures off in the Interior. They have also
progressively backed off precip amounts with each run and are not
very consistent there.

Aloft...The low sandwiched between two highs and the 500mb level
continues its presence but will weaken in place tonight. A good
push of cold air with a shortwave trough moves down from the
arctic tonight associated with a low pressure system located in
the high arctic. This movement of air is the main driver for
cooler temps for our forecast area this weekend. A closed low also
breaks off of this shortwave and will move south over the Bering
Strait Friday. In the long term, a ridge builds back into the
state next week and warms temperatures again.

Central and Eastern Interior...Spring weather will continue until
Friday, when a shift to cooler weather will take place over the
weekend. A system moving down from the arctic will cross the
Brooks Range Thursday night and enter the Interior Friday. This
will bring cooler temperatures at the 850mb level and increased
cloud cover. Therefore, cooling max temps off over the weekend.
Previous model runs indicated that we may see some showery
precipitation around Fairbanks with this system, however the GFS
and NAM have backed off precip as the system dries out coming over
the Brooks Range. So took precipatation out of the forecast for
Friday. Looking ahead to next week, temperatures begin to warm
again so this cool off will be short lived.

Western Interior and West Coast...Northeast winds extending from
the Chuckchi Sea and Western Brooks Range through the Bering
Strait to St. Lawrence Island will be picking up tomorrow. This is
due to a pressure gradient tightening through the area and has
prompted the issuance of a wind advsiory for zone 217 and strong
wind headlines for zones 207, 208 and 213. Kept timing largely the
same with all, however looks like winds in St. Lawrence Island
will remain through Saturday so extended the strong wind headline
for zone 213 to reflect that.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Winds are also the main topic here.
Northerly winds associated with the previously mentioned weather
system will increase Thursday night and last through Friday
morning. Passes will be primarily affected with winds gusting up
to 40 mph in Anaktuvuk and Atigun passes. There is the possibility
of some blowing and drifting snow with these winds, including
along the Dalton Highway. Chose not to issue an advisory due to
low confidence in the models.

For the rest of the North Slope strong winds will continue until
Friday for the both the western and eastern arctic coasts. While
winds will be elevated in both locations, they are for different
reasons. On the western arctic coast elevated northeasterly winds
will be due to the same gradient affecting the West Coast. On the
eastern arctic coast westerly winds will be due to a low pressure
system to the east in Canada. Areas of fog and blowing snow will
also be present the next day or so.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

BJB APR 18