Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

235 
WWAK41 PAFC 250443
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
743 PM AKST Wed Jan 24 2018

AKZ131-251800-
/O.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0001.180125T0900Z-180126T0300Z/
Northeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez and Thompson Pass
743 PM AKST Wed Jan 24 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM AKST
THURSDAY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Thompson Pass.

* WHEN...Midnight to 6 PM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 55 mph will 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or
visit 511.alaska.gov.

$$

AKZ145-251800-
/O.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0003.180125T1200Z-180125T1800Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
743 PM AKST Wed Jan 24 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM AKST
THURSDAY THROUGH BROAD PASS AND CANTWELL...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills 
  will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed 
  skin. Expect wind chills to range from 20 below zero to 45 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Through Broad Pass and Cantwell.

* WHEN...3 AM to 9 AM Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

125 
WWAK41 PAFC 251212
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
312 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

AKZ131-260300-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180126T0300Z/
Northeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez and Thompson Pass
312 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Thompson Pass.

* WHEN...Midnight to 6 PM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 55 mph will 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or
visit 511.alaska.gov.

$$

AKZ145-251800-
/O.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180125T1800Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
312 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING THROUGH BROAD PASS AND CANTWELL...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills 
  will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed 
  skin. Expect wind chills to range from 20 below zero to 45 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Through Broad Pass and Cantwell.

* WHEN...3 AM to 9 AM Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

466 
WWAK41 PAFC 251754
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
854 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

AKZ131-260200-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180126T0300Z/
Northeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez and Thompson Pass
854 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Thompson Pass.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 55 mph will 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or
visit 511.alaska.gov.

$$

AKZ145-260200-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180126T0200Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
854 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH BROAD PASS AND CANTWELL...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will
  cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.
  Expect wind chills to range from 30 below zero to 45 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Through Broad Pass and Cantwell.

* WHEN....Through 5pm this afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The core of coldest air will move over the
  area today, resulting in little improvement in either winds or
  temperatures today. Both warming temperatures and diminishing
  winds this evening will end the wind chill threat.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

424 
WWAK41 PAFC 260215
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

AKZ145-260315-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180126T0200Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
515 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED THROUGH BROAD PASS AND
CANTWELL...

Winds and temperatures will slowly moderate tonight, allowing wind
chill values to rise. Wind chills as cold as 30 below are still
possible through Friday morning.

$$

AKZ131-260315-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180126T0300Z/
Northeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez and Thompson Pass
515 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Thompson Pass.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 55 mph will 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or
visit 511.alaska.gov.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 AM AKST Wed Jan 24 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large upper level ridge continues to persist over the Bering and
Aleutians while the deep arctic trough/upper level low centered
over mainland Alaska continues to dig slowly south keeping a very
cold, low level air mass entrenched over Southwest Alaska. The
deformation band which had been bringing snow to southcentral
Alaska has weakened significantly with snow tapering to isolated
to scattered showers and now mainly lingering along the Chugach
and Talkeetna Mountains. Northwesterly outflow winds continue from
the Alaska Peninsula over Kodiak Island and through all the
typical offshore flow gaps along the Gulf Coast and southcentral
Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in very good agreement on the persistent large scale
blocking pattern continuing to bring cold conditions to mainland
Alaska. Smaller scale differences do continue, however in the
details of the troughs/surface lows rotating around the periphery
of the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...With snow showers having tapered off and shifted east
early this morning, conditions should remain predominantly VFR at
PANC through the period. Occasional snow flurries are still
possible however as an upper level trough swings through this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days Today and Thursday)...
Gale to storm force outflow winds will continue over the western
Gulf through Thursday as cold air continues to spill through gaps
in the Aleutian Range. Winds will ramp up some tonight then peak
on Thursday as the upper low dropping south across Southcentral
provides favorable jet support. Winds should diminish some
Thursday night as upper support wanes. Elsewhere, gap and outflow
winds are expected to continue across much of the North Gulf
Coast/Eastern Kenai into Thursday. Outflow winds should start to
diminish in these areas later Thursday as upper support weakens.

The threat of light snow or flurries will likely continue west of
the Chugach through tonight as the upper low center drops south
across the area. As the flow aloft becoming more easterly across
the Gulf, surface lows heading northwest across the Gulf will
spread moisture and increased chances of snow to the North Gulf
Coast and Eastern Kenai Peninsula Thursday/Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The advance of a strong upper level low just east of the area and
its associated bitterly cold air continues across Southwest Alaska
this morning. This pattern will persist over the southwest
Mainland through the end of the week, keeping clear and cold
conditions over the area. Temperatures are running anywhere from
15 to 25 degrees below normal area-wide. Fortunately the winds
will remain light in most areas away from the coast, so once again
any wind chill concerns should remain localized to interior
windier locations north and west of Iliamna.

Towards the coast, temperatures are slightly warmer, and so the
slightly stronger winds should still keep wind chills shy of
advisory criteria. The only precipitation concerns will be
confined to the immediate Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak Island
through early this evening, as a fast-moving impulse of moisture
tracks over the area from the northern Bering, though any snow
that falls will be light. Thursday into Friday, the upper level
low tracks along the Alaska Range and in its wake is a slight
warming trend in temperatures back toward normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A broad warm ridge and associated surface high pressure centered
over the central Aleutians continues to dominate most of the
Bering's weather, except near the coast and the far western
Bering. The coast is the transition zone to the deep polar air
over the state. Meanwhile out west, another very deep low
southwest of the Kamchatka Peninsula will continue to build the
ridge northward. The building ridge over the Bering will very
effectively block the active weather over the far western Bering
from impacting any more of the area.

Besides the occasional weak impulse of energy rapidly tracking
southbound across the eastern Bering into the Alaska Peninsula,
the remainder of the area will remain under a mix of sun and
clouds as much of the stratus erodes. Conditions will deteriorate
Thursday night into Friday over the western Bering and Aleutians
as a front moves over the area and stalls.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast Thursday night, a deep
arctic vortex will be moving south over Kodiak Island and then
into the Western Gulf of Alaska by Friday morning. A very cold air
mass will be in place, especially over Southwest Alaska as the
cold air takes the path of least resistance around the Alaska
Range into the Bering Sea. The tricky forecast at this juncture
will be over Southcentral as the eastern periphery of the
aforementioned upper vortex will be advecting a warmer air mass
towards the coast (although still cold enough for all snow). This
will bring snow chances to all of the North Gulf Coast (and
potentially into some inland locales near the coast) and Kodiak
Island. The low quickly digs south with snow chances moving south
with the low so that by Sunday all of Southern Alaska will be dry
as cold high pressure settles in.

The high latitude blocking high is still expected to develop
somewhere over Eastern Siberia and the northwest Bering Sea which
will continue a northerly flow pattern aloft over Southern Alaska
along with continued dry and cold through Tuesday. At this
juncture, the numerical model guidance falls apart as the high
latitude block shears the mainland trough and upper level energy
splits over the North Pacific. However, this model discrepancy
really does not significantly impact the sensible weather over the
region, so expect continued cold and largely dry weather into the
midweek period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 120 121 127 129 131 132 136 138 150 178
         Storm Warning 130
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 121 126 127 128 129 130 131
            132 136 137 138 139 141 160 180

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JA