Gale Warning 79, NWS Anchorage, AK

328 
FZAK51 PAFC 251224
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-260115-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 mb low 175 nm southeast of Middleton Island moves over 
Middleton Island tonight at 995 mb and then dissipates. A second 
990 mb low 275 nm south of Sitka moves over Middleton Island Fri 
afternoon at 1004 mb and then moves inland Fri night. A complex 
1000 mb low forms 200 nm south of Sitkinak Fri morning and exits 
the Gulf to the south Fri night.

$$

PKZ119-260115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Along the coast, wind becoming SE 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-260115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-260115-
Resurrection Bay-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-260115-
Prince William Sound-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-260115-
Port Valdez-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-260115-
Valdez Narrows-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ128-260115-
Valdez Arm-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-260115-
Passage Canal-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 5 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-260115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-260115-
Barren Islands East-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 17 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-260115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-260115-
Chiniak Bay-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-260115-
Marmot Bay-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-260115-
Shelikof Strait-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-260115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-260115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-260115-
Kachemak Bay-
324 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 PM AKST Wed Jan 24 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The 250 mb upper level pattern remains very similar today compared
to the previous few days, with an upper level trough over the
mainland part of the state and a strong ridge over the Bering Sea.
The trough has shifted eastward some which is what has pushed the
light snowfall eastward and over the Talkeetna mountains. This
low will move southward over the next few days and bring colder
temperatures along with it. At the surface, the pressure gradient
along the north Gulf coast will continue to increase and bring
gusty outflow winds. A complex surface low is developing in the
eastern Gulf of Alaska and will rotate into the northern Gulf
late Thursday. The surface high remains centered over the Central
Aleutians and is producing a tight pressure gradient between this
high and the developing Gulf low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have all settled on the track of the 500 mb upper level
low in the Interior moving to around Kodiak Thursday evening and
then continuing to move southward. All models are indicating the
upper level ridge in the Bering Sea will persist well into next
week. The surface low moving into the eastern Gulf of Alaska
tonight and tomorrow will be complex in nature with more than one
center. The strongest center location is similar on the different
models, but with a cold system such as this, there can be small
but potent lows that develop in the Gulf off the northwest winds.
The NAM is trying hard to pinpoint each of these lows but is
changing the locations with each run.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will continue but there may be periods
where ceiling heights drop below 5000 ft through the night.
Northerly winds are going to persist through tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days Today and Thursday)...
Brutally cold air has moved into Southcentral and many locations
will see single digit highs or lower. The potential fly in the
ointment will be over the Anchorage Bowl and the Mat-Su Valleys
where cloud coverage will come into play. Where the clouds clear,
expect strong radiational cooling and bone chilling temperatures.
If the clouds linger, the temps might remain above the zero degree
threshold. A Wind Chill Advisory along the Parks Highway from
Cantwell and through Broad Pass has been issued for tonight, where
some of the strongest winds are combining with the cold air.

The longwave pattern features a ridge over the Bering and a
trough extending from the North Slope and into the Gulf Of Alaska.
As time elapses, expect the upper low that has been over the
interior to drop southward and across the AKPEN. The strong
temperature gradient along the Aleutian Range will persist through
this forecast package resulting in strong gap winds. Gale to
storm force winds along with rough seas will continue over the
western Gulf through Friday. However, as the aforementioned upper
low nears Kodiak the winds over the Gulf of Alaska and Prince
William Sound will turn easterly. The focus will be the potential
formation of a barrier jet south of Cordova and in the vicinity of
Hinchinbrook Island. As the flow aloft becomes more easterly
across the Gulf and the surface low track recurves, moisture will
spread into Eastern Prince William Sound, with potential for a
prolonged period of snow accumulation. The best bet for new snow
will be Cordova and the adjacent areas to the north and east.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Thursday and
Friday)...
An upper level low currently on the south side of the Brooks
Range is the primary driver of the weather across Southwest
Alaska. The upper level low represents the core of the coldest air
over the state. It is forecast to track south over the next 36
hours to the west side of the Alaska Range. Thus, temperatures
will continue falling into Thursday night. As the low moves
southward over interior Southwest Alaska, surface ridging and high
pressure will also build southward through the northern Bering.
This large difference in pressure is expected to kick up the winds
Thursday night just as the coldest air is moving through
Southwest Alaska, especially through the Kuskokwim Delta. For that
reason, inland colder locations are under a Wind Chill Advisory
Thursday night into Friday. For the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and
Bristol Bay, winds will be just low enough that any wind chills
meeting criteria should be brief and isolated, though widespread
wind chills between 30 and 40 below are expected.

Behind the low during the day Friday, temperatures should begin a
healthy rebound back closer to average over the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and Bristol Bay. This will be in part due to the
expectation of additional cloud cover holding in what little
surface heating there is. However for the Kuskokwim Delta,
continued cold advection will make temperatures have a very
difficult time moving much during the day Friday, and conditions
meeting wind chill advisory criteria may well continue past noon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Thursday
and Friday)...
As a strong low near Kamchatka lifts northward, it will help
build a broad ridge that has been over the southern Bering
northward across the central Bering. This highly amplified pattern
will help accelerate the polar low over Alaska to the south.
Meanwhile, though the upper level ridge builds northward, it will
be squeezed between the two lows on either side of it, making for
a "skinny ridge". The net effect will be more active weather
developing across the western Bering and western Aleutians as a
front makes a little eastward progress in that area. However, the
ridge is expected to persist in place enough to block any further
eastward progress. It also means that cold advection will continue
for the foreseeable future across the eastern Bering. The non-stop
snow shower activity moving south into the Alaska Peninsula and
eastern Aleutians will also continue. Meanwhile strengthening
winds will lead to continued blowing snow concerns for the
southern Alaska Peninsula through Cold Bay. Due to the showery
nature of the precipitation, it remains unlikely that visibilities
will remain low enough for a long enough period of time to meet
advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The Arctic trough that will dive southward through the Mainland
and into the Gulf late this week will begin tracking into the
North Pacific for the weekend. This will allow for the blocking
ridge that has setup over the Bering to move eastward, bringing
generally clear skies, below normal temperatures and strong gap
winds along the Gulf Coast into early next week. This small change
in the pattern will limit chances of precipitation to just the
Gulf Coast late Friday-Saturday, as the remnants of a weak low
moving through the North Gulf diminishes. After this occurs,
little in the way of precipitation is expected throughout the
Southern Mainland looking into early next week.

For the Eastern Aleutians/Bering, the persistent and gusty
northwest flow and widespread snow showers currently over the area
will come to an end on Saturday as the flow weakens and becomes
easterly. The Western Bering/Aleutians will however see little
overall change to the current pattern as southerly flow will
continue to bring a series of gale force fronts and rain to the
area until this weekend. Model agreement is very good into early
next week depicting a break in the rain/wind as ridging expands
westward.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 145 155.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 120 121 126 127 129 130 131
132 136 137 138 139 141 150 160 165 180 181 185.
Storm Warning 130.
Gale Warning 121 127 129 131 132 136 138 150 155 160 165 172 178
180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...DEK