Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2018

Storm Warning 120, NWS Anchorage, AK

November 4, 2018

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this storm warning at Nov 4, 2018, 3:56 AM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 4, 2018, 3:56 AM AKST (12:56 UTC)
Expired
Nov 6, 2018, 3:57 AM AKST
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

421 
FZAK62 PAFC 041256
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-050245-
356 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A Kamchatka low moves to 60N 174W at 988 mb by Tue morning. Its 
front moves across the Aleutians and Bering to the Southern Alaska 
Peninsula for Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-050245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
356 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 30 ft. Rain showers and snow 
showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ412-050245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
356 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 29 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ413-050245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
356 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ414-050245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
356 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$
5 follow-up statements
971 
FZAK62 PAFC 050018
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-051430-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 971 mb Kamchatka low Sunday Afternoon will move to 58N 177W at
983 mb by Mon afternoon and then to 63N 169W at 995 mb by Tue
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-051430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft. Rain showers and
widespread snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 to 28 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 29 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-051430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt becoming W 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 28 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 27 ft.

$$

PKZ413-051430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas
16 to 24 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ414-051430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.

$$
323 
FZAK62 PAFC 050949
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1249 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-052215-
1249 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 971 mb Kamchatka low Sunday Afternoon will move to 58N 177W at
983 mb by Mon afternoon and then to 63N 169W at 995 mb by Tue
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-052215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
1249 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain showers
and snow showers. Isolated thunderstorms.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft. Rain showers and
widespread snow showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 to 28 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 29 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-052215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
1249 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain. 
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt becoming W 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 28 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 27 ft.

$$

PKZ413-052215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
1249 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain. 
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas
16 to 24 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ414-052215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
1249 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.

$$
523 
FZAK62 PAFC 051239
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-060245-
339 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 mb low at 58N 168E swings to 67N 165W at 1007 mb by Wed
morning. Its front sweeps across the Bering and over the 
Aleutians through Wed morning. A 997 mb low near 56N 166E pushes 
its front towards the Western Aleutians for Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-060245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
339 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms in the evening.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 32 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-060245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
339 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 27 ft.

$$

PKZ413-060245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
339 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ414-060245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
339 AM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming 20 to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.

$$
915 
FZAK62 PAFC 060041
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-061430-
341 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb low at 58N 177E Mon afternoon moves to 63N 170W at 994 mb
by Tue afternoon. A front approaches the western Aleutians by Wed
morning.

$$

PKZ411-061430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Isolated 
thunderstorms.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-061430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain showers.
Isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ413-061430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
morning.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ414-061430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming 15 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 to 16 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$
674 
FZAK62 PAFC 061257
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-070245-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 988 mb low at 60N 176E moves to 67N 160W then inland for Wed
afternoon. Its front sweeps from the Bering into Western Alaska by 
Wed afternoon. A 1010 mb South Kamchatka low moves to 60N 177E at 985
mb Thu morning. Its front pushes across the Bering into the Eastern 
Aleutians through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-070245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-070245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ413-070245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ414-070245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Nov 3, 5:24 PM AKDT, 11 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 3, 5:24 PM AKDT, 11 hours 32 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A split flow pattern is evident on Water Vapor Satellite imagery
with a ridge centered just south of the Brooks Range and a low
south of the Alaska Peninsula. To the west...nearly zonal flow is
across the western half of the Bering, separating the next low to
monitor which is deepening over Kamchatka.

The surface low, connected to the parent low south of the Alaska
Peninsula, is slowly moving east and filling. The leading front
across the northern Gulf is rapidly diminishing. Scattered showers
are developing along the diffuse boundary, which now extends
across the southern Kenai Peninsula to Middleton Island. Offshore
flow has set up across the southern mainland between the ridge
across the mainland and the low to the south.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement through early next week, so only
minor changes were needed for the afternoon package. The NAM data
was preferred for refining wind details.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected through Sunday afternoon. Winds
will generally be out of the north as a dominant ridge persists
across the mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level trough near Kodiak will shift east tonight with the
associated front along the North Gulf coastline falling apart. All
precipitation along the Kenai coast and Kodiak will end by Sunday
morning with clearing skies across all of Southcentral as offshore
flow increases. Ridging will build inland Monday evening through
Tuesday, so gap winds along the coast will weaken. Beautiful and
dry weather will persist through Tuesday with cold inversions at
night, especially in valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Monday)...

Southwest Alaska remains sandwiched between high pressure over
interior Alaska and low pressure just south of Chirikof Island.
This is producing a general offshore flow with scattered clouds
and showers continuing across the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges as
well as along the Bristol Bay coast north to the lower YK Delta.
The lingering shower activity will begin to shut off from north
to south overnight as the low drifts east toward the western Gulf.
Behind the departing low, a building ridge will help keep things
rather quiet through much of the weekend, especially for inland
locations. Underneath the ridge, clear skies and light winds will
allow overnight temperatures to dip near 0 within the sheltered
valleys of the interior southwest. A weak trough will slide east
toward the southwest coast early Sunday. This system will continue
to weaken as it moves onshore with little in the way of moisture;
however, warmer air in the mid-level ahead of this system could
allow for a brief period of very light freezing rain/drizzle for
locations around Bethel on Sunday before the trough slides east
and the warmer air mixes to the surface. The mid-level warm air
advection will also help to strengthen the inversion over the
southwest, resulting in areas of freezing fog for much of the area
Sunday night into early Monday morning. Southwest winds will
increase Monday morning as a front rapidly approaches from the
west. This will help scour out the ares of fog from northwest to
southeast across the region as well as bring in a mix of rain and
snow. This front moves into the interior Monday night as a second
trough brings a reinforcing shot of rain and snow showers for the
southwest on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Monday)...

Low pressure south of the AKPEN will continue to track toward the
western Gulf tonight. As it does, winds and precipitation will
diminish. Behind this system, two weak troughs will enter the
eastern Bering from the west bringing some widely scattered
showers to the open waters east of the Pribilofs for late Saturday
night into Sunday. Also on Sunday, a strong cold front associated
with a Kamchatka low will begin to slide east into the western
Bering and Aleutians. The front slides over the Pribilofs and
eastern Aleutians by early Tuesday as the main center of
circulation moves southeast into the western Bering. Storm-force
winds are expected to develop on Monday underneath the low as
colder air wraps around the system. These winds will weaken to
gales as the system becomes vertically stacked and fills in as it
lifts into the northern Bering on Tuesday. The combination of
cyclonic flow, moisture, and steeper lapse rates due to the colder
air aloft will allow rain and snow showers to continue over the
Bering into mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Monday through Friday)...

Models seem to be in better agreement through Friday next week as
we watch the progression of two lows across the Bering Sea. The
first low pressure system is expected to cross the Bering Sea on
the north side and continue northward through the Bering Strait on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Although this is a slightly different track
than what the models were showing yesterday, for the most part,
impacts along the west coast haven't changed. Ridging over the
mainland is expected to remain in place during this time frame, so
the front associated with this low will move onshore and then
rapidly weaken late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

By Thursday, the second low pressure system appears on the horizon
in the western Bering Sea. EC/GFS are showing good consistency on
the storm track through Friday, which lends confidence to the
storm moving through the central Bering and possibly bringing
winds and waves to the eastern Bering as early as late Thursday
evening. However, by Friday, model solutions begin to diverge. GFS
wants to weaken the storm and push it northward through the Bering
Sea, while EC prefers to keep the storm a little stronger and move
it onshore near the Kuskokwim Delta. Where this really makes a
difference is in the Gulf of Alaska. If the GFS pans out, there is
potential for a storm to move up from the south, bringing winds
and precipitation to the Gulf coast late Friday night. If the EC
solution is correct, conditions in the Gulf will remain unsettled
but will not be influenced by a single storm. Consequently, the
long term forecast remains certain for stormy weather in the
Bering Sea, with a storm possible in the Gulf of Alaska by the
end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 177 178 185 411-413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...LF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 4, 3:49 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC24 hr
Nov 4, 3:49 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr
Nov 4, 4:00 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC6 days
Nov 4, 4:00 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC6 days

Nearby

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2018Every storm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.