Small Craft Advisory 862, NWS Anchorage, AK

483 
FZAK51 PAFC 041730
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-050415-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 993 mb low 225 nm southeast of Kodiak City moves over Annette 
Island at 1007 mb then inland for Mon afternoon. A 1004 mb low 
forms 85 nm southeast of Middleton Island Sun afternoon and exits
the Southeastern Gulf Mon afternoon. A weak trough extends across
the North Gulf Coast into Southeast Alaska through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-050415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper
River Delta. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-050415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-050415-
Resurrection Bay-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Seward. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Seward. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-050415-
Prince William Sound-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-050415-
Port Valdez-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Valdez in the
afternoon.  Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Valdez. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Valdez in the morning. 
Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-050415-
Valdez Narrows-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-050415-
Valdez Arm-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-050415-
Passage Canal-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-050415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-050415-
Barren Islands East-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-050415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-050415-
Chiniak Bay-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-050415-
Marmot Bay-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-050415-
Shelikof Strait-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW by late morning. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-050415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-050415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-050415-
Kachemak Bay-
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

625 
FZAK51 PAFC 050014
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-051245-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 999 mb low Sun afternoon 110 nm southwest of Sitka moves inland
over the eastern Gulf coast through Sun night. A 1003 mb North 
Pacific low Tue afternoon 270 nm south of Sitkinak extends its 
front into the southern Gulf.

$$

PKZ119-051245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River Delta.
Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River Delta. 
Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River Delta.
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-051245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near the coast. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near the coast. Seas 7 
ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-051245-
Resurrection Bay-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt.  Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-051245-
Prince William Sound-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-051245-
Port Valdez-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-051245-
Valdez Narrows-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-051245-
Valdez Arm-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-051245-
Passage Canal-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-051245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E by midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-051245-
Barren Islands East-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-051245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-051245-
Chiniak Bay-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-051245-
Marmot Bay-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-051245-
Shelikof Strait-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-051245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt.
Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-051245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-051245-
Kachemak Bay-
314 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A split flow pattern is evident on Water Vapor Satellite imagery
with a ridge centered just south of the Brooks Range and a low
south of the Alaska Peninsula. To the west...nearly zonal flow is
across the western half of the Bering, separating the next low to
monitor which is deepening over Kamchatka.

The surface low, connected to the parent low south of the Alaska
Peninsula, is slowly moving east and filling. The leading front
across the northern Gulf is rapidly diminishing. Scattered showers
are developing along the diffuse boundary, which now extends
across the southern Kenai Peninsula to Middleton Island. Offshore
flow has set up across the southern mainland between the ridge
across the mainland and the low to the south.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement through early next week, so only
minor changes were needed for the afternoon package. The NAM data
was preferred for refining wind details.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected through Sunday afternoon. Winds
will generally be out of the north as a dominant ridge persists
across the mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level trough near Kodiak will shift east tonight with the
associated front along the North Gulf coastline falling apart. All
precipitation along the Kenai coast and Kodiak will end by Sunday
morning with clearing skies across all of Southcentral as offshore
flow increases. Ridging will build inland Monday evening through
Tuesday, so gap winds along the coast will weaken. Beautiful and
dry weather will persist through Tuesday with cold inversions at
night, especially in valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Monday)...

Southwest Alaska remains sandwiched between high pressure over
interior Alaska and low pressure just south of Chirikof Island.
This is producing a general offshore flow with scattered clouds
and showers continuing across the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges as
well as along the Bristol Bay coast north to the lower YK Delta.
The lingering shower activity will begin to shut off from north
to south overnight as the low drifts east toward the western Gulf.
Behind the departing low, a building ridge will help keep things
rather quiet through much of the weekend, especially for inland
locations. Underneath the ridge, clear skies and light winds will
allow overnight temperatures to dip near 0 within the sheltered
valleys of the interior southwest. A weak trough will slide east
toward the southwest coast early Sunday. This system will continue
to weaken as it moves onshore with little in the way of moisture;
however, warmer air in the mid-level ahead of this system could
allow for a brief period of very light freezing rain/drizzle for
locations around Bethel on Sunday before the trough slides east
and the warmer air mixes to the surface. The mid-level warm air
advection will also help to strengthen the inversion over the
southwest, resulting in areas of freezing fog for much of the area
Sunday night into early Monday morning. Southwest winds will
increase Monday morning as a front rapidly approaches from the
west. This will help scour out the ares of fog from northwest to
southeast across the region as well as bring in a mix of rain and
snow. This front moves into the interior Monday night as a second
trough brings a reinforcing shot of rain and snow showers for the
southwest on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Monday)...

Low pressure south of the AKPEN will continue to track toward the
western Gulf tonight. As it does, winds and precipitation will
diminish. Behind this system, two weak troughs will enter the
eastern Bering from the west bringing some widely scattered
showers to the open waters east of the Pribilofs for late Saturday
night into Sunday. Also on Sunday, a strong cold front associated
with a Kamchatka low will begin to slide east into the western
Bering and Aleutians. The front slides over the Pribilofs and
eastern Aleutians by early Tuesday as the main center of
circulation moves southeast into the western Bering. Storm-force
winds are expected to develop on Monday underneath the low as
colder air wraps around the system. These winds will weaken to
gales as the system becomes vertically stacked and fills in as it
lifts into the northern Bering on Tuesday. The combination of
cyclonic flow, moisture, and steeper lapse rates due to the colder
air aloft will allow rain and snow showers to continue over the
Bering into mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Monday through Friday)...

Models seem to be in better agreement through Friday next week as
we watch the progression of two lows across the Bering Sea. The
first low pressure system is expected to cross the Bering Sea on
the north side and continue northward through the Bering Strait on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Although this is a slightly different track
than what the models were showing yesterday, for the most part,
impacts along the west coast haven't changed. Ridging over the
mainland is expected to remain in place during this time frame, so
the front associated with this low will move onshore and then
rapidly weaken late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

By Thursday, the second low pressure system appears on the horizon
in the western Bering Sea. EC/GFS are showing good consistency on
the storm track through Friday, which lends confidence to the
storm moving through the central Bering and possibly bringing
winds and waves to the eastern Bering as early as late Thursday
evening. However, by Friday, model solutions begin to diverge. GFS
wants to weaken the storm and push it northward through the Bering
Sea, while EC prefers to keep the storm a little stronger and move
it onshore near the Kuskokwim Delta. Where this really makes a
difference is in the Gulf of Alaska. If the GFS pans out, there is
potential for a storm to move up from the south, bringing winds
and precipitation to the Gulf coast late Friday night. If the EC
solution is correct, conditions in the Gulf will remain unsettled
but will not be influenced by a single storm. Consequently, the
long term forecast remains certain for stormy weather in the
Bering Sea, with a storm possible in the Gulf of Alaska by the
end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 177 178 185 411-413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...LF