Storm Warning 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

499 
FZAK51 PAFC 231533 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Update to zones 130 and 141

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-240330-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 973 mb low 120 nm southeast of Middleton Island moves inland Tue 
afternoon at 967 mb. A 972 mb North Pacific low moves 200 nm 
southeast of Middleton Island at 966 mb Wed night.

$$

PKZ119-240330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas building to 25 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-240330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft building to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-240330-
Resurrection Bay-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-240330-
Prince William Sound-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas building to 12 ft by late morning.
Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Widespread rain
showers. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-240330-
Port Valdez-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-240330-
Valdez Narrows-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-240330-
Valdez Arm-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-240330-
Passage Canal-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt increasing to E 35 kt by afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 7 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-240330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt except 25 kt from Augustine and W. Seas 11
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-240330-
Barren Islands East-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft in the
afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-240330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-240330-
Chiniak Bay-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-240330-
Marmot Bay-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-240330-
Shelikof Strait-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. 
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-240330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-240330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 35 kt by late morning. Seas
building  to 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-240330-
Kachemak Bay-
733 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

901 
FZAK51 PAFC 231941 AAB
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Update to zones 129 and 131

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-240345-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 973 mb low 120 nm southeast of Middleton Island moves inland Tue 
afternoon at 967 mb. A 972 mb North Pacific low moves 200 nm 
southeast of Middleton Island at 966 mb Wed night.

$$

PKZ119-240345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas building to 25 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight.  
.WED...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain.  
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.  
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.  
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.  
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-240345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft building to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.  
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.  
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.  
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.  
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-240345-
Resurrection Bay-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.  
.WED...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.  
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-240345-
Prince William Sound-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas building to 12 ft by late morning.
Rain.  
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Widespread rain
showers.  
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.  
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-240345-
Port Valdez-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers.  
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.  
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-240345-
Valdez Narrows-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread rain showers.  
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.  
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-240345-
Valdez Arm-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
Rain.  
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.  
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.  
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-240345-
Passage Canal-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt with gusts to 50 kt. seas building to 6 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.  
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-240345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt except 25 kt from Augustine and W. Seas
11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.  
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-240345-
Barren Islands East-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas 11 ft building 
to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.  
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.  
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.  
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.  
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-240345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.  
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.  
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.  
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.  
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-240345-
Chiniak Bay-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-240345-
Marmot Bay-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-240345-
Shelikof Strait-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.  
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-240345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.WED...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-240345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 35 kt by late morning. Seas
building  to 8 ft.  
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain showers.  
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-240345-
Kachemak Bay-
1141 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.  
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

022 
FZAK51 PAFC 232354
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-241245-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A strong low over the Kenai Peninsula will move inland passing over 
the Cook Inlet this evening. A front will move into the northern 
Gulf Wed afternoon. The associated North Pacific low will move into 
the eastern Gulf Thu morning then it will move to 75 nm southeast of 
Middleton Island at 966 mb Thu afternoon. 


$$

PKZ119-241245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to S 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 25 ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-241245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 25 ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 19 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-241245-
Resurrection Bay-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable winds to 10 mph becoming S early this evening and
increasing to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. S winds diminishing to 15 
kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain 
showers.
.WED...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-241245-
Prince William Sound-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt
this evening and to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 
ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-241245-
Port Valdez-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-241245-
Valdez Narrows-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt early this evening. Winds
becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-241245-
Valdez Arm-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt south of Rocky Point early 
this evening. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-241245-
Passage Canal-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts to
45 kt early this evening. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-241245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-241245-
Barren Islands East-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-241245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. N of Dangerous Cape, seas 5 ft building to 15 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-241245-
Chiniak Bay-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-241245-
Marmot Bay-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-241245-
Shelikof Strait-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-241245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-241245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-241245-
Kachemak Bay-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The vertically stacked low that brought heavy rains and strong
winds to the Gulf Sunday continues to weaken and move northwest.
The upper level low is slowly filling but is continuing to advect
cold air through the western mainland into the Gulf of Alaska. The
associated trough has also become negatively tilted in a
Northwest-Southeast direction over the eastern Bering. The trough
alignment is cutting off the moisture to the western Gulf and is
pushing much of the energy to the eastern Gulf. The jet also
supports this easterly transition as it dips well below the
Aleutian chain and then sweeps back up along Southeast Alaska. In
the mid-levels, a slight ridge is forming over the Gulf which is
assisting in the moisture cut-off process. All of these factors
are allowing for a brief reprieve in the precipitation experienced
over Southcentral over the last weekend. Winds have also
diminished throughout the Gulf and Southcentral.

The AKPEN and Kuskokwim Delta on the other hand are not immune
from the rain. Through the Aleutian chain, on the western edge of
the trough, northwesterly flow is dominating, and bringing gusty
conditions to the islands and marine areas south of Saint Paul.
Satellite imagery shows bands of stratus along the edges of the
troughs while the rest of the Bering Sea is covered in scattered
cumulus. In addition, satellite depicts the next fast moving storm
brewing in the North Pacific.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in fairly good agreement at the upper levels with the
broad negatively tilted trough over the northeast Pacific and the
north Pacific jet. At the surface, models have the same path and
intensity of the developing storm which moves across the Gulf
Tuesday. There are however are some relatively minor differences
in timing of the low. The same is true of the following low
entering the southern Gulf Thursday. Mainly will be doing hand
edits to capture local effects.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions amd light winds are expected through
Tuesday afternoon. Rain moving in by late Tuesday morning could
bring some brief MVFR conditions, but this is not likely and thus
is not in the 00z TAF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The longwave pattern features a broad trough from the Eastern
Bering to the Gulf of Alaska. There are multiple embedded
shortwaves over the North Pacific and Gulf Of Alaska. There is
widespread difluent flow over Prince William Sound. There are a
pair of lows at the surface, one south of Kodiak and the other is
south of Middleton Island. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate
tomorrow as a strong low moves along the north Gulf coast and into
southcentral Alaska tomorrow afternoon. Both the NAM and the GFS
models show this storm but the two models are not in sync with the
timing of the track and landfall. This low may have an intensity
of 965 mb which will bring a tight pressure gradient into the
region. Expecting gales and storm force winds to materialize. In
addition to gusty winds expect another round of precipitation. The
temperatures in the boundary layer remain warm, expecting low
elevation rains and snow above 3,000 feet. The exception is the
southern Copper River basin, where enough cold air is in place
that snow is expected on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The cloudy and showery pattern over southwest Alaska will
continue for the next few days. A series of low pressure systems
rotating through the region are responsible for this pattern. One
exception will be some brief clearing tonight over the western
Alaska/Aleutian Ranges and into the lower Kuskokwim Valley. This
will allow for some patchy fog formation and temperatures to drop
to around freezing. Otherwise, the cloudy and moist pattern will
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The trough on the backside of the low in the eastern Bering is
diving south as expected. The weather associated with this trough
is currently moving through the Pribilofs. Low ceilings, rain, and
gusty northerly winds are associated with the trough movement. As
this trough moves south over the eastern Aleutians tonight, the door
will be opened for strong northerly flow to push into much of the
Aleutians. As a result, we are expecting gale force winds to develop
over the central Bering tomorrow and push over the central Aleutians
tomorrow night. On Wednesday, a trough embedded in the flow is
expected to produce gales over the western Aleutians, with strong
winds continuing for the western and central Aleutians at least
until Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
(Thursday through Monday)

A very challenging forecast is in store for us through the
extended period, as the models remain in modestly good agreement
with the overall pattern through Saturday. Thereafter, the train
goes off the tracks as solutions diverge about as much as they
can with really no semblance of agreement. This occurs as the
persistent pattern of a deep trough over the west and multiple
systems rounding the base riding north into Southcentral, which
we've had for what seems like a few weeks now, breaks down. This
will allow some potential for cooler Arctic air to try to make
inroads into our neck of the woods. However, given the huge spread
in the numerical guidance, trying to get too specific would be
problematic at best.

For the end of this week, the various forecast solutions agree
with each other, bringing another low northwestward through the
Gulf and across the Kenai Peninsula. As stated yesterday, this low
will be in a slow weakening state, but, it'll still be in the
upper 960s to mid 970s mb range. This should still be strong
enough for some sustained gales across the northern Gulf and
periods of light to moderate rainfall, with a few pockets of heavy
rain possible on the south and east facing slopes, as orographic
lift helps maximize precipitation efficiency. The main challenge
with this storm is timing. The European (ECMWF) is the fastest of
the models, bringing precipitation into the Copper River
Delta/Valdez area Thursday morning, then spreading it westward
while reaching the Kenai/Anchorage Bowl/Mat-Su Valleys region by
late Thursday evening. Meanwhile, the GFS is about 12 hours slower
with the same precipitation pattern, and the NAM is about 18 to
24 hours slower. The timing has really not been in good agreement
over the last few model runs, so we know the rain is coming, just
when is the question. At this point we're leaning towards the GFS
solution as it's a good "middle ground" approach.

For Sunday and Monday, no changes were made to the forecast given
the pattern change and high degree of uncertainty with the model
spread. For now will just lean towards the ensembles (family of
models blended towards climatology), with just some minor tweaks
to POPs (probability of precipitation) and temperatures.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory (Snow) 141.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 125.
 Gale Warning 120 127>129 170 172>174.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
LONG TERM...PD