Small Craft Advisory 821, NWS Anchorage, AK

294 
FZAK51 PAFC 240646 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-242000-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A strong low over the Kenai Peninsula will move inland passing over 
the Cook Inlet this evening. A front will move into the northern 
Gulf Wed afternoon. The associated North Pacific low will move into 
the eastern Gulf Thu morning then it will move to 75 nm southeast of 
Middleton Island at 966 mb Thu afternoon. 


$$

PKZ119-242000-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to S 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 25 ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-242000-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 25 ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 19 ft after
midnight. Rain. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-242000-
Resurrection Bay-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-242000-
Prince William Sound-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain showers. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-242000-
Port Valdez-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-242000-
Valdez Narrows-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 
ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-242000-
Valdez Arm-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.  Seas
3 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-242000-
Passage Canal-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Gusts to 45 kt early this evening. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft
after midnight. Rain showers. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-242000-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-242000-
Barren Islands East-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight.  Seas
16 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 35 kt after midnight.  Seas
7 ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-242000-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft. N of Dangerous Cape, seas 5 ft building to 15 ft after
midnight. 
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-242000-
Chiniak Bay-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-242000-
Marmot Bay-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-242000-
Shelikof Strait-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. 
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-242000-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-242000-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.  Seas
7 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-242000-
Kachemak Bay-
1046 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight.  Seas
8 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

470 
FZAK51 PAFC 241154
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-250100-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 971 mb North Pacific low moves 190 nm southeast of Middleton 
Island at 963 mb Wed night and then moves 100 nm southwest of 
Middleton Island at 974 mb Thu night.

$$

PKZ119-250100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 26
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-250100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 21 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-250100-
Resurrection Bay-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-250100-
Prince William Sound-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-250100-
Port Valdez-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-250100-
Valdez Narrows-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-250100-
Valdez Arm-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-250100-
Passage Canal-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-250100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-250100-
Barren Islands East-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-250100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight, Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. N of Dangerous Cape, N wind
30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight, Seas 6 ft building to
19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, N wind 40 kt becoming
NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-250100-
Chiniak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-250100-
Marmot Bay-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft . Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-250100-
Shelikof Strait-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-250100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-250100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-250100-
Kachemak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

430 
FZAK51 PAFC 241240 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Amended area 125

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-250330-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 971 mb North Pacific low moves 190 nm southeast of Middleton 
Island at 963 mb Wed night and then moves 100 nm southwest of 
Middleton Island at 974 mb Thu night.

$$

PKZ119-250330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 40 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
26 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-250330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the
afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 21 ft after
midnight. Rain. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-250330-
Resurrection Bay-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-250330-
Prince William Sound-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-250330-
Port Valdez-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-250330-
Valdez Narrows-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-250330-
Valdez Arm-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-250330-
Passage Canal-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-250330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-250330-
Barren Islands East-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-250330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight, Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. N of Dangerous Cape, N wind
30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight, Seas 6 ft building to
19 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, N wind 40 kt becoming
NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-250330-
Chiniak Bay-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-250330-
Marmot Bay-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft . Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-250330-
Shelikof Strait-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-250330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-250330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-250330-
Kachemak Bay-
440 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

587 
FZAK51 PAFC 241340 AAB
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Updated area 125

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-250345-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 971 mb North Pacific low moves 190 nm southeast of Middleton 
Island at 963 mb Wed night and then moves 100 nm southwest of 
Middleton Island at 974 mb Thu night.

$$

PKZ119-250345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.  
.THU...NE wind 40 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
26 ft. Rain.  
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.  
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.  
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.  
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-250345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 21 ft after
midnight. Rain.  
.THU...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. Rain.  
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.  
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.  
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.  
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-250345-
Resurrection Bay-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.  
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.  
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.  
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-250345-
Prince William Sound-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt during the morning. Seas 4
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-250345-
Port Valdez-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.  
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.  
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-250345-
Valdez Narrows-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.  
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.  
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-250345-
Valdez Arm-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.  
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.  
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-250345-
Passage Canal-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Widespread rain showers.  
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain.  
.THU...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain showers.  
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-250345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.  
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.  
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.  
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.  
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-250345-
Barren Islands East-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain.  
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.  
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.  
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.  
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.  
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-250345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.  
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight, Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. N of Dangerous Cape, N wind
30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight, Seas 6 ft building to
19 ft after midnight. Rain.  
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, N wind 40 kt becoming
NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft. Rain.  
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.  
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.  
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-250345-
Chiniak Bay-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.  
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.  
.THU...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.  
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-250345-
Marmot Bay-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.  
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain.  
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft . Rain.  
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-250345-
Shelikof Strait-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.  
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain.  
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.  
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.  
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.  
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-250345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.  
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.  
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.  
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-250345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.  
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.  
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-250345-
Kachemak Bay-
540 AM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.  
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

341 
FZAK51 PAFC 242338
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-251230-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 967 mb low will move to 230 nm southeast of Middleton Island 
Wed night then it will move to 90 nm southwest of Middleton Island 
at 969 mb Thu afternoon. The low will then move near Kodiak City 
at 984 mb Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-251230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-251230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 19 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-251230-
Resurrection Bay-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-251230-
Prince William Sound-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-251230-
Port Valdez-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-251230-
Valdez Narrows-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THU...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-251230-
Valdez Arm-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-251230-
Passage Canal-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-251230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-251230-
Barren Islands East-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-251230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight, Seas
9 ft. N of Dangerous Cape, N wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after
midnight, Seas 7 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, N wind 40 kt becoming
NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-251230-
Chiniak Bay-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-251230-
Marmot Bay-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-251230-
Shelikof Strait-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-251230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-251230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-251230-
Kachemak Bay-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

935 
FZAK51 PAFC 251152
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-260115-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 964 mb low 190 nm southeast of Middleton Island moves 100 nm 
southwest of Middleton Island at 975 mb Thu night and then moves 90 
nm south of Kodiak City at 991 mb Fri night.

$$

PKZ119-260115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
27 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-260115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-260115-
Resurrection Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-260115-
Prince William Sound-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-260115-
Port Valdez-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-260115-
Valdez Narrows-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 25 kt during the morning. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-260115-
Valdez Arm-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-260115-
Passage Canal-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-260115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-260115-
Barren Islands East-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-260115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-260115-
Chiniak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-260115-
Marmot Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-260115-
Shelikof Strait-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-260115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft .
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-260115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-260115-
Kachemak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Low pressure in the eastern Gulf is intensifying this morning as
it moves northwest into the northern Gulf. This is quite evident
on IR satellite with imagery overnight showing not only cooling
cloud tops but a transition from a developing baroclinic leaf to a
more mature storm with the textbook comma head. This storm is also
getting plenty of upper-level support, as it sits underneath the
left exit region of a meridionally amplifying 140kt jet streak.
Widespread rain has developed from Prince William Sound south and
east along the Alaska Panhandle overnight along the associated
warm front. This area of precipitation is lifting to the northwest
as the low tracks closer to the Southcentral coast. Buoy
observations and ASCAT scatterometer winds also show widespread
gales with this system along with storm-force winds wrapping
around the center of circulation.

Farther west, a trough extending across the AKPEN is allowing
rain to persist across the Bristol Bay region this morning. Mid-
and high- level clouds are also filling in over the Southcentral
and Southwestern interior as the mid-level ridge lifts north in
advance of the low in the Gulf.

A second area of low pressure situated over the eastern Bering is
also slowly gaining strength as it drifts southeast toward the
Pribilofs. This system is bringing showers and gusty northwesterly
winds to the central Bering and the Pribilofs, and is helping
reinforce the colder air advecting southward from the northern
Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in decent agreement with the evolution of the
surface low in the eastern Gulf and with its supporting upper-
level dynamics. Guidance has also come into better agreement with
the timing and evolution of the low, bringing the onset of winds
and precipitation across Southcentral about three hours earlier
than suggested in yesterday's model runs. Given the consistency of
this acceleration in the most recent individual runs and overall
run to run consistency between models, this adjustment to the
timing has been reflected in the latest forecast package. There is
still some uncertainty in the timing and placement of the second
Gulf low on Thursday. Overall, the GFS was favored due to its run
to run consistency. The 00z NAM appears an outlier given its more
northerly track along the coast. However, the latest NAM run (06z)
has aligned better with the GFS. The EC and Canadian guidance
looked to be too fast with this second system, but both did favor
a more southerly track for the low, similar to the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected to
continue through mid-morning. By late morning, MVFR conditions
will develop as rain moves over the airport complex reducing
visibility and dropping ceilings below 5,000ft. Gusty northerly
winds will also develop by mid-morning prior to and in association
with a frontal passage. Behind the front, the gusty winds will
turn to the southeast and continue through the evening and
overnight hours before diminishing. MVFR conditions will also
persist with ceilings remaining at or below 5,000ft through the
evening as showers develop behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The biggest item to discuss with this morning's forecast is the
strong low in the northern Gulf is moving faster and slightly
farther south than previous forecast package. This is bringing in
the precipitation and winds sooner this morning for most of the
area. The more southerly track is now just south of Seward and
then near Kalgin Island and then over the Alaska Range as opposed
to moving over Turnagain Arm and over Anchorage.
This track will lessen rainfall for Anchorage and areas farther
north as there will be more cross-barrier flow with this system
than it appeared yesterday morning when the low was expected to
track nearly over Anchorage.

Snow will be mostly relegated to the Copper River Basin and
especially in the passes. A winter weather advisory for the snow
remains in effect today for the Richardson Highway south of the
Edgerton Highway cutoff.

After today, the forecast is basically on track with (you can stop
reading now if you have heard this before) a break between systems
tomorrow before the next strong low moves out of Southeast Alaska
and across the Gulf to the Kenai Peninsula by Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A surface low in the Gulf pushes a front across the Alaska and
Aleutian Ranges later this morning with a northeast track across
the Kuskokwim Valley through the afternoon. Northerly flow shifts
to the south as the surface low moves to Norton Sound tonight...although
winds across the Kuskokwim Delta will prevail out of the west through
Wednesday night. Winds shift again to the north for Thursday as
the next low approaches from the Gulf. Gusty winds develop across
the Kuskokwim Delta during the afternoon as a front diving across
the eastern Bering squeezes the pressure gradient.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Low pressure across the eastern Bering slides south of the Alaska
Peninsula late today. The shortwave aloft driving the low will
initiate scattered to numerous showers as it moves across the
southern Bering. A strong wave of energy then propagates across
the western Bering late tonight, ushering a colder air mass
toward the Central Aleutians. Northerly flow increases across the
western half of the Bering in response, with winds ramping up
across the central and eastern waters Wednesday through Thursday.
Wind and precipitation taper off on Thursday across the western
Bering with a ridge building across from the North Pacific.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
(Thursday through Monday)

A very challenging forecast is in store for us through the
extended period, as the models remain in modestly good agreement
with the overall pattern through Saturday. Thereafter, the train
goes off the tracks as solutions diverge about as much as they
can with really no semblance of agreement. This occurs as the
persistent pattern of a deep trough over the west and multiple
systems rounding the base riding north into Southcentral, which
we've had for what seems like a few weeks now, breaks down. This
will allow some potential for cooler Arctic air to try to make
inroads into our neck of the woods. However, given the huge spread
in the numerical guidance, trying to get too specific would be
problematic at best.

For the end of this week, the various forecast solutions agree
with each other, bringing another low northwestward through the
Gulf and across the Kenai Peninsula. As stated yesterday, this low
will be in a slow weakening state, but, it'll still be in the
upper 960s to mid 970s mb range. This should still be strong
enough for some sustained gales across the northern Gulf and
periods of light to moderate rainfall, with a few pockets of heavy
rain possible on the south and east facing slopes, as orographic
lift helps maximize precipitation efficiency. The main challenge
with this storm is timing. The European (ECMWF) is the fastest of
the models, bringing precipitation into the Copper River
Delta/Valdez area Thursday morning, then spreading it westward
while reaching the Kenai/Anchorage Bowl/Mat-Su Valleys region by
late Thursday evening. Meanwhile, the GFS is about 12 hours slower
with the same precipitation pattern, and the NAM is about 18 to
24 hours slower. The timing has really not been in good agreement
over the last few model runs, so we know the rain is coming, just
when is the question. At this point we're leaning towards the GFS
solution as it's a good "middle ground" approach.

For Sunday and Monday, no changes were made to the forecast given
the pattern change and high degree of uncertainty with the model
spread. For now will just lean towards the ensembles (family of
models blended towards climatology), with just some minor tweaks
to POPs (probability of precipitation) and temperatures.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 141.
MARINE...Gale Warning 127 128 129 131 139 140 170 172 173 174 175
176 177 178 185 351 411 412 413 414.
Storm Warning 119 120 125.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...PD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
121 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 AM     SNOW             1 NW KENNY LAKE         61.73N 144.98W
10/23/2018  E2.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   PUBLIC

            ABOUT 2 IN REPORTED AND STARTED AROUND
            4:15AM.

1115 AM     SNOW             WILLOW LAKE             61.79N 145.19W
10/23/2018  E1.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   PUBLIC

            LESS THAN 1 IN REPORTED.

1000 AM     SNOW             1 ENE KENNY LAKE        61.73N 144.92W
10/23/2018  E1.5 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   PUBLIC

            STILL SNOWING AT THE TIME OF OBSERVATION.

1000 AM     SNOW             OPERATE FROM MILE 42 TO 61.45N 145.11W
10/23/2018  E3.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            REPORTED 3 IN OF SNOW AT THE OFFICE AS WELL
            AS AT THE INTERSECTION OF RICHARDSON HWY AND
            EDGERTON HWY. 0.3 IN SWE WITH THE MORNING
            SNOWFALL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
124 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CORDOVA                 60.55N 145.75W
10/23/2018  M65 MPH          VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   PUBLIC

            ONE MATURE TREE WAS UPROOTED AND LOTS OF
            BRANCHES AND DEBRIS THROWN ABOUT.

1118 AM     SNOW             1 NW KENNY LAKE         61.73N 144.98W
10/23/2018  E2.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   PUBLIC

            ABOUT 2 IN REPORTED AND STARTED AROUND
            4:15AM.

1115 AM     SNOW             WILLOW LAKE             61.79N 145.19W
10/23/2018  E1.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   PUBLIC

            LESS THAN 1 IN REPORTED.

1000 AM     SNOW             OPERATE FROM MILE 42 TO 61.45N 145.11W
10/23/2018  E3.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            REPORTED 3 IN OF SNOW AT THE OFFICE AS WELL
            AS AT THE INTERSECTION OF RICHARDSON HWY AND
            EDGERTON HWY. 0.3 IN SWE WITH THE MORNING
            SNOWFALL.

1000 AM     SNOW             1 ENE KENNY LAKE        61.73N 144.92W
10/23/2018  E1.5 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   PUBLIC

            STILL SNOWING AT THE TIME OF OBSERVATION.

&&