Storm Warning 109, NWS Anchorage, AK

643 
FZAK51 PAFC 160008
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-161345-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A very strong front will move from the North Pacific into the 
Gulf Coast by Tue morning. This will create a storm-force barrier 
jet into Prince William Sound. Another trough will move into the 
Western Gulf Tue afternoon keeping small craft southwest winds 
across the area until Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-161345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...Winds becoming S 25 kt in the morning. Seas subsiding to
13  ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-161345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-161345-
Resurrection Bay-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-161345-
Prince William Sound-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...SE wind diminishing to 20 kt in the morning. Seas
subsiding to  4 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-161345-
Port Valdez-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-161345-
Valdez Narrows-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-161345-
Valdez Arm-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-161345-
Passage Canal-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-161345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt in the evening. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-161345-
Barren Islands East-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-161345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-161345-
Chiniak Bay-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-161345-
Marmot Bay-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-161345-
Shelikof Strait-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-161345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-161345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-161345-
Kachemak Bay-
408 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

920 
FZAK51 PAFC 161203
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-170045-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A strong front sweeps across the North Gulf Coast and Eastern 
Gulf into Southeast Alaska by Thu morning. Several troughs move
through the Western Gulf through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ119-170045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt, except SE 35 kt along the coast in the
morning. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 55 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 55 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ120-170045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-170045-
Resurrection Bay-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-170045-
Prince William Sound-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ126-170045-
Port Valdez-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-170045-
Valdez Narrows-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-170045-
Valdez Arm-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-170045-
Passage Canal-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
45 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-170045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-170045-
Barren Islands East-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ132-170045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-170045-
Chiniak Bay-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ137-170045-
Marmot Bay-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ138-170045-
Shelikof Strait-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-170045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-170045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-170045-
Kachemak Bay-
403 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern is setup with a deep low just south of the Alaska
Peninsula and ridging over southeast Alaska the extends into
mainland Alaska. This pattern keeps southerly flow over the
Gulf and southern mainland with a long fetch that is pulling up
moisture from the south. The front associated with the main low is
starting to push in over southwest Alaska and Kodiak Island as it
tracks to the northeast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models stay in good agreement with the low south of the Alaska
Peninsula as it tracks into the eastern Bering and stalls there
through the mid term. However, they are struggling with a low
further to the west that will approach the western Aleutians
Wednesday night. The NAM is the furthest north while the EC is
furthest south with the others in between. The middle ground was
preferred due to the spread of the guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light surface winds will persist. The
biggest challenge is timing of windshear. There is high confidence
of windshear happening due to Turnagain Arm winds moving in over
the west Anchorage with northerly flow at the surface. However,
there is some uncertainty with the exact timing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Strong southerly flow aloft is developing over the northern Gulf
and into Southcentral. A stream of moisture in this flow will
push into the area with rain developing along the coast this
morning and pushing inland during the day. Strong surface winds
will develop over the northern Gulf as a front rides this
southerly flow. Winds will rise to Storm force tonight in a
barrier jet along the north Gulf coast from Cape Suckling westward
into Prince William Sound as the front becomes more negatively
tilted. Initially the inland valleys will not see a lot of rain,
but as the front moves onshore tonight rainfall rates will
increase. On Tuesday the front will move inland. Moist southerly
to southwesterly flow aloft will continue through Tuesday night.
This will combine with cyclonic flow (due to the upper low
sitting in the eastern Bering Sea) to keep showers in the
forecast. Most of the showers will be along the coast and over the
mountains, but some will occur in the valleys as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal system stretched across the Kuskokwim Delta and
greater Bristol Bay area early this morning will continue to
rotate inland today with breezy east to southeasterly winds
persisting. Numerous bands of showers associated with the large
upper level low tracking into the southeastern Bering will rotate
onshore and across Southwest Alaska through midweek. Showers will
taper off to a more scattered coverage Wednesday night as the low
begins moving south again.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The large vertically stacked low centered south of Unimak Pass
will lift north across the western Alaska Peninsula today. The low
will continue to gradually fill as it slowly tracks north tonight to
become centered about half way between Cape Newenham and the
Pribilof Islands where it will stall Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The low will then begin tracking back to the south on Wednesday to
cross the Alaska Peninsula again late Wednesday night or early
Thursday morning. Northerly flow will persist across the west and
central Bering through Wednesday with the next frontal system
approaching the western Aleutians from the south Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

At the onset of the forecast period, the synoptic pattern
features a low near Kenai, a second low south of the Aleutian
chain and a low near Kamchatka. Anticipate a very progressive
pattern. The guidance is coming into better agreement. Expect back
to back lows to bring a healthy amount of precipitation to PWS
and the Anchorage metro area. Even though the third week of
October is considered to be part of the cold season for Alaska,
the temperatures with both storms will remain above freezing in
the low elevations. Higher elevations on the Kenai and other
portions of South Central can expect a fresh blanket of snow this
forecast period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...128 129 130 131 174 176 185 351 352 412.
		 Storms...119 125.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...PS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1224 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

AKZ131-135-161200-
Northeast Prince William Sound-Southeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez, Thompson Pass, and Cordova
1224 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...Heavy RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FOR THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

A strong weather front will bring heavy rain and strong winds to
the Prince William Sound area this afternoon through tonight.

Rainfall for this afternoon through late tonight is expected to
be in the 2 to 5 inch range with highest amounts at higher
elevations. Be aware of rising river levels. Localized flooding
in low lying areas is also possible through Tuesday night.

Winds will be strongest in the Cordova area and into the marine
area of Prince William Sound overnight tonight with Southeast winds
40 to 55 mph with some gusts to 65 mph. Winds will not be nearly
as strong in the Valdez area.

Winds and rain should diminish early Tuesday morning.