Gale Warning 588, NWS Anchorage, AK

360 
FZAK51 PAFC 162347
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-171245-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A trough along the northern gulf diminishes through Wednesday night. A
992 mb low 360 nm southeast of Kodiak City Wed night moves to Kodiak
Island at 985 mb by Thu afternoon.


$$

PKZ119-171245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...S wind 55 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ120-171245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-171245-
Resurrection Bay-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt by midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-171245-
Prince William Sound-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ126-171245-
Port Valdez-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-171245-
Valdez Narrows-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-171245-
Valdez Arm-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain 
showers.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-171245-
Passage Canal-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-171245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-171245-
Barren Islands East-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ132-171245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-171245-
Chiniak Bay-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ137-171245-
Marmot Bay-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ138-171245-
Shelikof Strait-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-171245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-171245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-171245-
Kachemak Bay-
347 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
642 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Correction to long term forecast

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The large low in the Eastern Bering Sea near the Alaska Peninsula
is becoming vertically stacked and will slowly weaken over the
next few days. It will, however remain the region as an anchor
low with the jet stream running around it to the south and then
bend back to the north-northeast over the north Gulf coast. this
pattern is tapping into some deep subtropical moisture and moving
it over Cook Inlet to the Prince William Sound area. A strong
Barrier Jet is also developing along a front as it approaches the
north Gulf coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement for the next day or two and the
adjustments made by them yesterday seem to be panning out well at
this time. By Thursday they start to show a large disparity with
the development of what will become a strong low in the Gulf of
Alaska. They all agree on the current anchor low in the Bering Sea
persisting until then and weakening which keep the region of
active low development swinging into the Gulf and then into
Southern Alaska. At this time the GFS model looks to have a very
reasonable track and strength for the Thursday through Saturday
time frame, but with a dynamic system such as this there are often
rapid changes in strength and track that occur so this system will
need to be watched closely.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Ceilings and visibility will likely drop to marginal
conditions this evening as the rain becomes more steady. While the
rain will persist into Monday afternoon, it will become more
showery in nature by tomorrow afternoon and ceilings and
visibility will improve back to VFR conditions by then.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Thursday)...

An atmospheric river of subtropical moisture is being drawn
northward into Prince William Sound and Southcentral Alaska this
evening. Heavy rain is ongoing across Prince William Sound,
including Cordova. The "nozzle" of the river will shift westward
overnight, allowing the heavy rain to spread into the western
Prince William Sound. As this happens, the cross-barrier winds
over the Chugach will relax somewhat, which will allow some of the
rain to move into Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley tonight.
Overnight rainfall totals will approach 1 inch in these areas. 3
to 5 inches of rain are expected around Seward, which is likely to
exacerbate flooding concerns in that area. A Flood Advisory is in
effect for the Seward area. The highest rainfall totals will be
along Prince William Sound, where the rain is expected to continue
through the day Wednesday, with storm totals over 6 inches likely
in Cordova over to Whittier by Wednesday night.

The other major weather story tonight will be very strong winds
along the Gulf Coast and into Prince William Sound. As the
aforementioned atmospheric river pushes mass into the coast, a
barrier jet will form tonight which will increase southeast winds
to 55-65 mph with higher gusts along the coast into Prince
William Sound. Waves will exceed 25 feet in the strongest winds on
the Gulf, with waves exceeding 15 feet in Prince William Sound
itself. Once the front forcing the jet pushes inland early
Wednesday morning, the winds will very quickly diminish back to
around 20 mph, which will persist for the next several days.

Tuesday through Thursday will be very steady state weather-wise
across nearly all of Southcentral. Steady onshore winds will keep
cloudy conditions with scattered to numerous showers ongoing
across much of the area. Rain will continue all along the Gulf
Coast through Thursday, though it should be significantly lighter
in intensity than the areas currently seeing the atmospheric
river. Another strong low moves into the Gulf Thursday night into
Friday. More on that to come.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Low pressure over the Alaska Peninsula lifts slowly north over
the eastern Bering tonight and fills through Tuesday afternoon.
Gusty easterly flow and rain continues through late tonight, then
tapers down rapidly Tuesday morning as low pressure kicks the
ridge anchored across the Panhandle further east. The low center
remains nearly stationary Tuesday through Wednesday night, then
slowly moves south of the Alaska Peninsula late Thursday. Light
rain and periodic gusts persists in the forecast through the end
of the week as energy rotates around the core of the low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An active weather pattern keeps a persistent wet and windy
pattern across the Bering through the end of the week. Low
pressure moves across the Alaska Peninsula to the eastern Bering
tonight with gusty southerly flow ahead of this system and
northerly flow to the west. Gale force northerly flow increases
through the evening as a cold air mass advects toward the Central
Aleutians on the backside of the low. Wind strength tapers down as
the low begins to shift southeast late Wednesday into Thursday.
The exception to this is for the Western Aleutians/Bering, as
winds taper early Wednesday ahead of the next North Pacific front
which moves up late Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

At the onset of the forecast period, the synoptic pattern
features a low near Kenai, a second low south of the Aleutian
chain and a low near Kamchatka. Anticipate a very wet and progressive
pattern. There is good general consensus between the
GFS/EC/Canadian but the best performing model is thought to be the
GFS for this forecast period. Expect back to back lows to bring a
hefty amount of precipitation to Kodiak, Prince William Sound,
and the Anchorage Bowl. Even though the third week of October is
considered to be part of the cold season for Alaska, the
temperatures with both storms will remain well above freezing in
the low elevations. Higher elevations on the Kenai and other
portions of South Central can expect a fresh blanket of snow this
forecast period bu significant accumulations not expected. The
entire forecast period, the GFS has above normal temperatures at
500 mb from Kenai to the Yukon Territory to Juneau.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood advisory 125.
MARINE...Storms 119 125. Gales 129 173-177 185 351 352 412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...PS