Storm Warning 100, NWS Anchorage, AK

800 
FZAK52 PAFC 022354
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-031315-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 950 mb low 300 nm North of Attu loops to 110 nm West of St
Matthew Island at 964 mb for Thu afternoon. Its front swings 
across the Aleutians and Bering into the Gulf of Alaska by Thu 
afternoon. Several troughs move across the Aleutians through Thu 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-031315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-031315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt except SW 25 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-031315-
Bristol Bay-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-031315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt except S 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 12
ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt except S 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
15 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. From Port Moller E, seas
12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-031315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-031315-
Unalaska Bay-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-031315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-031315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft building to 30 ft in the
afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-031315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft building to 27 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-031315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 35 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-031315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...W wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 29 ft subsiding to 23 ft after midnight.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-031315-
Adak to Kiska-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight. Seas
30 ft.
.WED...W wind 55 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft subsiding to 19 ft after
midnight.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-031315-
Kiska to Attu-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.WED...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
31 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-031315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-031315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-031315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-031315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
354 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

829 
FZAK52 PAFC 030200 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-031500-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 950 mb low 300 nm North of Attu loops to 110 nm West of St
Matthew Island at 964 mb for Thu afternoon. Its front swings 
across the Aleutians and Bering into the Gulf of Alaska by Thu 
afternoon. Several troughs move across the Aleutians through Thu 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-031500-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-031500-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt except SW 25 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-031500-
Bristol Bay-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-031500-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt except S 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
12 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt except S 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
15 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. From Port Moller E, seas
12 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-031500-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-031500-
Unalaska Bay-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-031500-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-031500-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft building to 30 ft in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-031500-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft building to 27 ft in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-031500-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 22 ft.  
.WED...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 35 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-031500-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.WED...W wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 29 ft subsiding to 23 ft after midnight. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-031500-
Adak to Kiska-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight. Seas
30 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED...W wind 55 kt. Seas 34 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft subsiding to 19 ft after
midnight. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-031500-
Kiska to Attu-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Seas 32 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
31 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-031500-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-031500-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain. 
.WED...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. Rain. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-031500-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain. 
.WED...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-031500-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
600 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

165 
FZAK52 PAFC 031154
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040045-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 959 mb low 250 nm northeast of Shemya moves 100 nm northwest of
Saint Paul at 961 mb Wed night and then moves 360 nm northwest of
Saint Paul at 970 mb Thu night. A second 987 mb low forms 90 nm
southwest of Dutch Harbor Thu night.

$$

PKZ150-040045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt, except SW wind 20 kt S of Chirikof Island.
Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt, except SW wind 20 kt E of Chirikof Island. 
Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt, except SW 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040045-
Bristol Bay-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
evening.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-040045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt, except S 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 12
ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt, except S 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
20 ft. From Port Moller E, seas 9 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight. Isolated thunderstorms.
.THU...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 
ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16
ft building to 24 ft in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
evening.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23 
ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040045-
Unalaska Bay-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft building to 21 ft in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms in
the morning.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain showers. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft building to 31 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the morning.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 55 kt becoming W 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
35 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 29
ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 28
ft subsiding to 22 ft after midnight.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040045-
Adak to Kiska-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
36 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040045-
Kiska to Attu-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
31 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft
building to 22 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. Isolated 
thunderstorms in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-040045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
evening.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-040045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
354 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. W of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 30 kt. Seas 
14 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

644 
FZAK52 PAFC 032358
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041245-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 959 mb low 155 nm West of St Paul Island loops towards 
Kamchatka at 981 mb for Fri afternoon. Its front wraps over the 
Aleutians and Bering through Fri afternoon. A 976 mb low forms 340
nm West of St Matthew Island Thu morning arching to 200 nm North 
of Kiska at 980 mb by Fri afternoon. Troughs rotate over the 
Aleutians and Bering through Thu afternoon.


$$

PKZ150-041245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt except SW 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041245-
Bristol Bay-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-041245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt except S 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
22 ft. From Port Moller E, seas 9 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24 
ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt decreasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041245-
Unalaska Bay-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft subsiding to 23 ft after
midnight.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
28 ft subsiding to 21 ft after midnight.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041245-
Adak to Kiska-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041245-
Kiska to Attu-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 25 ft. 
Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22 
ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-041245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-041245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
358 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt E of St. Matthew Island, 20 kt W of St.
Matthew Island. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt E of St. Matthew Island, NE wind 25 kt W of St. 
Matthew Island. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper ridge over the mainland continues to retreat north, but
still has enough strength to continue strong surface inversions
across the Anchorage Bowl and Cook inlet/Kenai Peninsula. This
gave rise to another round of stratus and fog development which
has been slow to dissipate. Higher clouds are heading north and
east across the Kenai Peninsula in advance of an approaching
frontal zone. The frontal zone stretches north from a low near the
western Aleutians then southeast across Bristol Bay to just
west/southwest of Kodiak Island. Rain has spread into Kodiak
Island. Except for southeast upslope areas over the Southwest
Mainland, strong cross- barrier flow (southeast) has minimized
precipitation amounts.

The remnants of ex-Trami is heading east toward the western
Aleutians as a intensifying surface low. Few observations are
available, but satellite derived winds earlier where showing gale
force winds with the surface low and associated frontal trough.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are still struggling on positioning and movement of ex-
typhoon Trami. Still leaning toward the GFS solution though both
the GFS and ECMWF have had fairly consistent run to run solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog and low stratus has lifted this evening and is expected
to remain outside of the terminal for the remainder of the period.
Southeast flow should be increasing aloft this evening and will
bring LLWS potential in the vicinity of the airport complex.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Thursday)...
There may be some isolated areas of fog lingering through late
this afternoon in the northern Cook Inlet region, but increasing
southeast low level flow (ahead of an occluded front entering the
western Gulf) should help scour it out during the evening hours.
The parent low of the occluded front will lift north-northwest
across the Bering Sea, leaving the occluded front to elongate on
the southwest side of a departing upper level ridge over mainland
Alaska. As a result, rain and winds ahead of the occluded front
will make slow northward progress the next 24 hours, not making it
north of Kodiak Island until Tuesday evening. Some rain will make
it as far north as western Prince William Sound (enhanced by
upslope flow) while the rest of Southcentral looks to remain dry,
though with some mid to high clouds.

As this front stalls and dissipates just south of the Kenai
Peninsula Tuesday night another front will approach from the
Bering Sea. This front looks like it will be a bit stronger than
the current front, but otherwise will be oriented nearly
identically and take a similar northward track across the Gulf.
Withe the upper level ridge long gone by this time, expect the
upper trough to drive northward, pushing the surface front onshore
of Southcentral sometime Thursday. This will bring a much better
chance of rain to the western Kenai, Anchorage, and on up to the
Mat-Su. Both of the fronts will also produce locally strong winds
through the typical east to west oriented gaps (such as Turnagain
Arm).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Low pressure system northeast of Cold Bay will continue to lift
north into the Bering this evening. East of the low, a steady
wave of precipitation will continue across the Alaska Peninsula
with gusty southeasterly flow across the Southwest mainland. By
early Tuesday, the low will fill and become an open wave and
lifts into the interior. In its wake, a fast moving occluded
front will move in. This new storm will allow the redevelopment
of gusty southerly winds. Expect another round of precipitation
with the heaviest accumulations anticipated in the upslope
regions. Near the AKPEN downsloping will act to limit rainfall in
the lee of the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An active weather pattern continues through Thursday as two
surface lows bookending the Aleutians impacts the region. The
first low is currently situated northeast of Dutch Harbor. This
system will bring gale force winds into the Eastern Bering. The
low will weaken as it lifts north toward Nunivak Island Tuesday.
Farther west, more robust winds across the western Aleutians as a
potent low moves towards Attu this evening. This storm is the
remnants of former Super Typhoon Trami. As this storm makes the
extratropical transition, cold air will wrap around the surface
low and mix down to the surface. As a result, storm force winds
will impact the western Aleutians and spread east through
Wednesday. These winds slowly diminish Wednesday night into
Thursday as the low fills.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
(Friday through Monday)

Uncertainty continues to remain moderately high for the extended
period, as models continue to struggle with the pattern evolution.
This is largely due to not one, not two, but three tropical
systems which will in one way or another effect our weather to
some degree. Contestant number one is the remnants of former Super
Typhoon Trami, this system is currently entering the western
Bering, and by the start of the forecast period the parent low
will continue to dumbbell around the western portions of the
Bering Sea, with other smaller lows rotating around it in a
Fujiwhara- like fashion, as additional jet energy feeds into the
backside of the trough.

There are two things to watch with this. Both the GFS and ECMWF
have come into better agreement with a deeper trough solution as
the parent low eventually settles somewhere near or just south of
the western Aleutians, but there are still different with the
overall height fields in terms of alignment and strength of
individual vort maxes rotating through it. The other interesting
issue is the models continue to portray a decent amount of
instability across the western two-thirds of the Bering and
Aleutian chain, as incoming vort maxes bring -30C air or colder
into the region at 500 mb, with fairly warm sea temperatures still
present aided by the tropical moisture from the former typhoon.
This could allow for a fairly decent coverage of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms to develop.

Contestant number two is Super Typhoon Kong-Rey, which is forecast
to pass south of Japan, making landfall across extreme South
Korea, before crossing the Sea of Japan as it heads towards the
eastern portion of the Sea of Okhotsk, before turning east as it
gets absorbed into the Bering/western Aleutian trough. This
system will bring a renewed source of tropical moisture, helping
to maintain the instability while perhaps giving the trough a
boost of energy. Then, as the much-talked about western trough
deepens, the downstream effect is for amplification of an east
Pacific Ridge, with some models suggesting it could try to build
towards the Copper River Delta. In between these two features
will be weakening fronts lifting through southwest Alaska and the
Kodiak Island area, into Southcentral. Each front could bring
periods of moderate rainfall (depending how much tropical moisture
is weened of the parent low out west), and some increased wind
potential to the higher elevations for the end of the work week.

Finally, if that wasn't enough to keep our hands full, Hurricane
Walaka, currently a category 4 hurricane (the equivalent of
yup...you guessed it...a Super Typhoon) is forecast to turn
sharply northwest then north northeast through the end of the
week, as it gets absorbed into an upper low to its north, with
the hurricane getting absorbed into it and then the low starts to
feel the effects of the trough to its northwest and the ridge to
the northeast. The end result (if all of this verifies...and
that's a big if...but has been seen in the numerical data for the
past 2 to 3 days) is an extra tropical low racing towards
southcentral with a tropical feed stretching to Hawaii, which
could provide for some fairly decent rain rates. Stay tuned as
many forecast changes are likely!

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 191.
MARINE...Gales 130 131 150 155 160 165 170 172-176 179 180 181 185.
         Storms 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
LONG TERM...PD