Small Craft Advisory 99, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jan 31, 2018, 3:21 PM AKST (00:21 UTC)

Expired

Jan 31, 2018, 4:30 PM AKST

In force

69 min

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

994 
FZAK52 PAFC 010021
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-010130-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
High pressure remains over the Bering Sea through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-010130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-010130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-010130-
Bristol Bay-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-010130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-010130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-010130-
Unalaska Bay-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-010130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-010130-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-010130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-010130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-010130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-010130-
Adak to Kiska-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-010130-
Kiska to Attu-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-010130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-010130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-010130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt.
.MON...E wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-010130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 31, 5:19 AM AKST, 10 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
519 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The big change aloft from yesterday is the digging trough over the
Gulf is showing more influence in the pattern. The closed high
over the Bering Sea has shifted more over the southern Chukchi
Peninsula. The upper level low is developing a circulation and
surface reflection in the Gulf of Alaska. The weak warm front
associated with the system is producing light snow over the Gulf,
even making it's way up in to the southern Kenai Peninsula. The
high clouds streaming off of this system are trying to ruin the
eclipse viewing, but as of the time of this early morning
writing, the blue moon will not be denied. Otherwise, the outflow
winds continue across the area in Valdez and the Matanuska Valley.
The influence of the Gulf system working to the west is drawing
some of the northerly flow into west Anchorage and the western
Kenai, acting to keep temperatures elevated. Currently there is a
almost 30 degree difference between Anchorage International and
Campbell Creek.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Guidance continues to be locked into the synoptics of the outflow
pattern. The surface low residing in the Gulf is much more well
agreed upon at this point than yesterday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions with gusty northerly winds will persist into
this evening, before beginning to diminish early Thursday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The weather over the next few days will focus on the weak low
currently rotating through the western gulf. While this low is
relatively weak as far as central pressure (around 1000 mb),
the pressure gradient between it and strong high pressure over
the mainland will still produce strong winds out of the Matanuska
Valley and through Thompson Pass, as well as storm force winds to
the Western Gulf today. This low will move south of Kodiak by this
afternoon which should allow for outflow winds along the North
Gulf Coast to diminish slightly, through strong winds are
expected to continue out of the Matanuska Valley through
Wednesday.

A second impact from this Gulf low will be for light snow from the
Kenai Peninsula southward to Kodiak Island. The most widespread
and impactful snow will be over Kodiak Island should see 3-5
inches of new snowfall along with blowing snow before the winds
turn easterly and warm to near freezing this afternoon. This shift
in the winds should keep any potential for the development for
blizzard conditions at bay, but this will also need to be
monitored in case temperatures don't warm as much as expected.
This general pattern is then expected to continue into Thursday as
high pressure strengthens over the Mainland, with continued
snowfall and easterly winds to Kodiak Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Saturday)

Similar to the past few days, the forecast remains on track. An
area of high pressure will shift from eastern Siberia into the
Arctic Ocean. Further south, a weak low southeast of Kodiak Island
will get absorbed into a larger northward-moving Pacific low while
it strengthens. This low will try to send a front towards the
AKpen, never making it that far north. However, isentropic lift
along and ahead of it in an over-running setup will provide
sufficient lift for precipitation to develop peninsula and Bristol
Bay region by the end of the week. Otherwise, look for minimal
changes in temperatures with an offshore flow pattern continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Saturday)

As a pair of lows start to affect the Aleutians and AKpen, the
pressure gradient will gradually tighten between these features
and a Siberian high pressure. Winds will steadily increase over
the next few days, with precipitation potential increasing for
much of the chain and southern Bering by weeks end. Otherwise,
look for temperatures to moderate slightly.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the long term forecast period Thursday night, the strong
omega blocking high will still be in place over Eastern Siberia
and northwest Alaska. There will be a weakening upper trough
(deforming and stretching) over Southern Alaska with a strong
arctic surface high over the interior. A stationary front will
stretch from the central North Pacific to Kodiak Island and the
Eastern Gulf of Alaska. Energetic shortwave troughs will slowly
but surely push the front farther north toward the Gulf Coast,
slowly eroding the arctic high in place towards Sunday evening.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty, still, regarding how far
north the front makes it. The global numerical models have
"flipped", with the ECMWF now depicting a faster northward
progression of the front to the North Gulf Coast by Sunday
evening. The 12z and 18z GFS stall the front before it makes it to
the coast, keeping all of southern Alaska dry through Tuesday.
For now, the WPC approach was favored which does bring a low
chance for precipitation to the coast by the end of the weekend.
While confidence is low, there should be a gradual uptick in
temperatures next week as the arctic high weakens, although
mainland locations still look to largely remain dry with no
significant precipitation threats on the horizon as the "blocky"
pattern aloft maintains it's hold over the regional weather
pattern.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 138
         Gale 119 120 127 128 130 131 139 175 179.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 160 180

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JA

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2018Every small craft advisory in 2018

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.