Small Craft Advisory 101, NWS Anchorage, AK

397 
FZAK51 PAFC 011237
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-020200-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A series of weak troughs move westward across the Gulf through 
Sat morning. A 991 mb low at 49N 149W moves to 54N 142W at 998 mb 
by Fri morning then moves inland near 55N 133W by Fri night.

$$

PKZ119-020200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray N of Middleton
Island in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-020200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-020200-
Resurrection Bay-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray in the
morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-020200-
Prince William Sound-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-020200-
Port Valdez-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-020200-
Valdez Narrows-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-020200-
Valdez Arm-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-020200-
Passage Canal-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-020200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-020200-
Barren Islands East-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-020200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-020200-
Chiniak Bay-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the
afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-020200-
Marmot Bay-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-020200-
Shelikof Strait-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-020200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-020200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-020200-
Kachemak Bay-
337 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
403 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level blocking high over the Bering Sea has drifted
slightly northward today, putting the center near the Gulf of
Anadyr in eastern Russia. The upper level low extends out of
Canada and into the Gulf of Alaska where a 500 mb upper level
cut-off low is now situated just south of Kodiak Island.
At the surface a small but potent low brought snowfall to the
southern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island earlier today. This
low is moving over Kodiak Island this afternoon. A large portion
of the eastern Bering Sea is clear of clouds today with just some
stratus along the southern part Bristol Bay and right along the
Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are still excelling in their handling of this very slow to
change pattern. The low in the western Gulf of Alaska is better
defined and able to be tracked today. The next issue doe not
arrive until early this weekend when a low moves to the central
Aleutian Islands. The strength of the blocking ridge is causing
some different solutions for this low from the different models.
However, all of them tend to impede its movement northward until
at least late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Northerly winds should be at
their peak through early evening and then diminish some overnight.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
For much of Southcentral a persistent weather pattern is in
place. The longwave pattern features a dome of high pressure over
the Bering with an upper level trough extending from Nunavut
Canada and into the Gulf Of Alaska. At 500 mb, there is an
elongated vortex just south of Kodiak Island with potent
shortwaves associated with it. Although the surface low is weak,
the affiliate mid- level energy has been slinging moisture into
Kodiak and this wrap around moisture will continue this forecast
period bringing additional new snow to the island. There are some
pockets of warm air which will make a rain/snow or short periods
of rain possible. In the wake of this low's passage, a second
impulse will move out of the North Pacific towards Kodiak late
Friday. Elsewhere, the Anchorage Metro Area and the Mat-Su Valleys
will remain dry the next two days with afternoon high temps
struggling to reach the 20F benchmark. Other sensible weather high
lights include the gusty winds in the Matanuska Valley, through
Thompson Pass, the Copper River Delta, Valdez and across multiple
marine zones near the Western Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Similar to the past few days, the forecast remains on track. An
area of high pressure will shift from eastern Siberia into the
Chukchi Sea by Thursday afternoon. Further south, a weak low
southeast of Kodiak Island will get absorbed into a larger
northward-moving Pacific low while it strengthens. This low will
attempt to send a warm front towards the AKpen Thursday, never
making it that far north. However, isentropic lift along and ahead
of said front, in an over-running setup, will provide sufficient
lift for precipitation to develop over the Alaska Peninsula and
Bristol Bay region by the end of the week. Otherwise, look for
minimal changes in temperatures with a dry offshore flow pattern
continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
As a pair of lows start to affect the Aleutians and AKpen, the
pressure gradient will gradually tighten between these features
and high pressure over eastern Siberia and the Chukchi Sea. Winds
will steadily increase over the next few days, with precipitation
potential increasing for much of the chain and southern Bering by
weeks end. Otherwise, look for temperatures to moderate slightly.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the long term forecast period Friday night, the strong
omega blocking high will still be in place over Eastern Siberia
and northwest Alaska. There will be a weakening upper trough
(deforming and stretching) over Southern Alaska with a strong
arctic surface high over the interior. A stationary front will
stretch from the central North Pacific to Kodiak Island and the
Eastern Gulf of Alaska. Energetic shortwave troughs will slowly
but surely push the front farther north toward the Gulf Coast,
slowly eroding the arctic high in place Sunday. There is quite a
bit of uncertainty, still, regarding how far north the front makes
it. Another day with the same model discrepancies as, once again,
the GFS and ECMWF models have "flipped", now the ECMWF mostly
remains dry for the Gulf Coast and inland (with precipitation
favoring Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula/Western Alaska
Range) while the GFS wants to move the front farther northward. For
now, the WPC approach was favored which does bring a low chance
for precipitation to the coast by the end of the weekend, although
keeping inland locales dry. There should be a gradual uptick in
temperatures next week as the arctic high weakens, but the general
dry pattern will remain in place with no snow likely in the near
future for inland locations as the blocking high remains dominant.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 138 Gales 127 130 131 139 175 414. Heavy freezing
spray 126-128 130 139 180 181 185 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JA