Small Craft Advisory 97, NWS Anchorage, AK

541 
FZAK51 PAFC 311257
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-010145-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1001 mb low 120 nm east of Kodiak City moves to 80 nm southeast
of Sand Point by at 1007 mb Wed night and then dissipates. A 990 
mb North Pacific low Thu morning moves to 80 nm southwest of
Hydaburg at 996 mb by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ119-010145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ120-010145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ121-010145-
Resurrection Bay-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-010145-
Prince William Sound-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-010145-
Port Valdez-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ127-010145-
Valdez Narrows-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-010145-
Valdez Arm-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-010145-
Passage Canal-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-010145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-010145-
Barren Islands East-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ132-010145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ136-010145-
Chiniak Bay-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-010145-
Marmot Bay-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-010145-
Shelikof Strait-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 50 kt. Seas building to 16 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-010145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-010145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-010145-
Kachemak Bay-
357 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 010041
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-011345-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1004 mb low 115 nm South of Kodiak City moves into the North 
Pacific by Thu morning. A series of weak troughs sweep westward 
across the Gulf through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-011345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray N of Middleton
Island.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray N of Middleton
Island in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-011345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-011345-
Resurrection Bay-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-011345-
Prince William Sound-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-011345-
Port Valdez-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-011345-
Valdez Narrows-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-011345-
Valdez Arm-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-011345-
Passage Canal-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-011345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray near
Augustine.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-011345-
Barren Islands East-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray after midnight. 
Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-011345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-011345-
Chiniak Bay-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-011345-
Marmot Bay-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-011345-
Shelikof Strait-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-011345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-011345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-011345-
Kachemak Bay-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 AM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Water vapor imagery in a loop tells the story quite well this
morning. Over the Bering Sea, a closed off high dominates the
column, while a closed low does the same over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska. Between the two controlling long-wave features, deep
northerly flow through the column, which is reinforcing the arctic
air mass already in place. No major disturbances are seen upstream
in the flow, the only active disturbance for our area is a
developing trough over the western Gulf as the longwave continues
to dig.

From a sensible weather perspective, clear, windy, and cold. The
Matanuska wind continues to blow from the northeast, keeping
temperatures elevated from the antecedent frigid state. Areas with
wind are hovering in the low 20s overnight, while protected areas,
or areas where the surface inversion is setting back up have
dipped back into the single digits, or negative. Winds in both the
Matanuska Valley and Valdez are have dropped a little from the
more extreme values of the last day or so, but continue none the
less.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Same story with guidance. Good general synoptic agreement, but
some differences with a weak developing low in the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. The only
uncertainty lies in whether or not gustier northerly winds
continue for west Anchorage. The general trend should be downward,
however, the edge of the strongest wind from the north should be
hovering just offshore of Anchorage International.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
With low pressure to the south and high pressure continuing to
build in over the northern part of the state, outflow winds will
continue for the next couple of days. An upper level low will
move over the Gulf today from the northeast which will form a
surface low that will track toward the western Gulf tonight. This
setup will keep precipitation away from most of Southcentral
Alaska with the exception of Kodiak Island. As the low develops
in the Gulf it will bring moisture to the Island beginning tonight
and increasing Wednesday and Wednesday night. The precipitation
will begin as snow, but could mix with rain Wednesday afternoon
and evening with temperatures just above freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Friday)

More of the same can be expected through Wednesday, before the
pattern starts to change some thereafter. The next few days will
feature a persistent offshore flow pattern as the region lies
between a strong mid-level area of high pressure over the northern
Bering, and a developing ares of low pressure aloft across the
Gulf. The Bering high will shift northward towards eastern Siberia
by Wednesday, as the strengthening Gulf low develops a surface
reflection.

This surface low will then retrograde while parallelling the
chain through Wednesday evening, before getting absorbed into a
strengthening Pacific low as it heads north towards the chain.
These systems will eventually bring a chance of precipitation to
the AKpen starting Wednesday, increasing each day through Friday.
Otherwise, look for temperatures to slowly moderate over the next
few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Friday)

A repeat scenario is in store for the region for the next few
days, before things become slightly more interesting. As mentioned
above, the Bering high will continue to shift away from the
region, with a pair of lows making inroads towards the chain by
the end of the work week. What this means in the near terms is
mainly dry conditions will persist area-wide, aside from a few
areas of flurries or perhaps a snow shower for the eastern parts
of the chain. Winds will generally remain below gales.

Heading into Wednesday evening through Friday, an approaching pair
of low pressure systems and a warm front will gradually increase
precipitation potential initially for eastern areas of the
Aleutians and nearby waters, spreading westward with time. As this
occurs, winds will also be on the increase during this period
ahead of the incoming lows/warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the long term forecast period Wednesday night, there
will be a rather stout high latitude omega block over Eastern
Siberia with an elongated trough stretching from the Eastern
Aleutians to the Canadian Maritime. A very stout arctic surface
high will be in place over eastern Alaska, with a continuation of
the current dry, cold offshore flow pattern. Precipitation will be
relegated to Kodiak Island, but it is expected to be all snow, and
there may be some decent accumulations, especially along the
eastern part of the island. With time, the omega block will shift
east over northwest Alaska which will effectively elongate and
shear the upper trough over Alaska. By late Friday into Saturday,
a North Pacific warm front will lift north into the Gulf of
Alaska, bringing much heavier precipitation to Kodiak Island (snow
changing to rain). This is where uncertainty grows rather quickly
among the global models. The GFS has been consistently progging
the front to reach the North Gulf Coast by Saturday while the
ECMWF and Canadian GDPS favor a slower progression given the
strength of the arctic high. In fact, the ECMWF never progresses
the front farther north than Kodiak, keeping all of mainland
Alaska and the coast dry. For now, an approach favoring the ECMWF
and the ECMWF ensemble is preferred. However, it is not out of the
question that the GFS verifies with warming temperatures by early
next week...and increasing chances for precipitation (favoring the
coast). Stay tuned...

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JA