Gale Warning 99, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 010041
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-011345-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1004 mb low 115 nm South of Kodiak City moves into the North 
Pacific by Thu morning. A series of weak troughs sweep westward 
across the Gulf through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-011345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray N of Middleton
Island.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray N of Middleton
Island in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-011345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-011345-
Resurrection Bay-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-011345-
Prince William Sound-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-011345-
Port Valdez-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-011345-
Valdez Narrows-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-011345-
Valdez Arm-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-011345-
Passage Canal-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-011345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray near
Augustine.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-011345-
Barren Islands East-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray after midnight. 
Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-011345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-011345-
Chiniak Bay-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-011345-
Marmot Bay-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-011345-
Shelikof Strait-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-011345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-011345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-011345-
Kachemak Bay-
341 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level ridge centered over the Bering Sea and stretching
over most of mainland Alaska remains the major weather feature
again today. The longwave trough that is over the Gulf of Alaska
and eastern Copper River Basin emanates from an upper low center
that is over northern Hudson Bay. A cut-off low is developing
along this trough near the Alcan border today. These features are
strong enough to keep a fairly strong upper level northerly
gradient over mainland Alaska with the core of it over Southwest
Alaska. The surface pressure gradient is tightest over the north
Gulf coast and near the Matanuska Valley. This is keeping strong
gap winds in these areas. Winds over Cook Inlet and in Southwest
Alaska took a while to get going today as the temperature
inversion set up strongly last night and it took a while for
winds aloft to mix down.

The cut-off low mentioned earlier near the Alcan border will
track to the southwest through tomorrow. This will help increase
cloud cover in the Gulf of Alaska and is where cloud cover that
may interfere with tonight's eclipse will come from.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Very little to discuss with models for the next few days as the
strong blocking ridge in the Bering Sea is keeping the pattern
very stable. High resolution models are working to assist in
forecasting the timing of the gusty winds through Southcentral
Alaska and parts of Southwest mainland Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty northerly winds will
persist through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The longwave pattern features a dome of high pressure over the
Bering with an upper level trough extending from the
Yukon/Northwest Territories and into the Gulf Of Alaska. The jet
is bisecting the Alaska Interior and starts to recurve south of
Kodiak. Several potent shortwaves are associated with the longwave
trough, a couple of which will coalesce north of Kodiak. As this
energy digs southward, expect moisture to get wrapped around the
surface low and towards Kodiak. Interestingly, the models have an
inordinate amount of cold air associated with this low and are
pinging into snow ratios of 20+:1 for most of Kodiak Island. High
confidence that this will predominately be a powdery snow event.
Elsewhere, with low pressure to the south and high pressure
continuing to build in over the northern part of the state,
outflow winds will continue for the next couple of days. More
windy conditions expected for Palmer and Wasilla this forecast
package. The Anchorage Metro Area and the Mat-Su Valleys will
remain bone dry the next two days as the surface low tracks toward
the western Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
More of the same can be expected through Wednesday, before the
pattern starts to change some thereafter. The southwest Mainland
will continue under a persistent offshore flow pattern as the
region lies between a strong mid-level area of high pressure over
the northern Bering, and a developing area of low pressure aloft
across the Gulf. The Bering high will shift northward towards
eastern Siberia by Wednesday evening, as the strengthening Gulf
low develops a surface reflection. The upper low and its surface
reflection will then retrograde while paralleling the chain
Wednesday night into Thursday, before getting absorbed into a
strengthening Pacific low as it heads north towards the chain.
These systems will eventually bring a chance of precipitation to
the AKpen starting Wednesday, increasing each day through Friday.
Otherwise, look for temperatures to slowly moderate over the next
few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The Bering high will continue to influence the sensible weather
over the region through Wednesday night, before things become
slightly more interesting. As mentioned above, the Bering high
will continue to shift away from the region Wednesday evening
through Friday, with northeasterly zonal flow setting up over much
of the Bering and Aleutians. What this means in the near terms is
mainly drier conditions will persist area-wide through Wednesday
night, aside from a few areas of flurries or perhaps a snow
showers for the eastern parts of the chain. Winds will generally
remain below gales. From Wednesday night through Friday, an
approaching pair of low pressure systems and a warm front will
gradually increase precipitation potential initially for eastern
areas of the Aleutians and nearby waters, spreading westward with
time. As this occurs, winds will also be on the increase during
this period ahead of the incoming lows/warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the long term forecast period Thursday night, the strong
omega blocking high will still be in place over Eastern Siberia
and northwest Alaska. There will be a weakening upper trough
(deforming and stretching) over Southern Alaska with a strong
arctic surface high over the interior. A stationary front will
stretch from the central North Pacific to Kodiak Island and the
Eastern Gulf of Alaska. Energetic shortwave troughs will slowly
but surely push the front farther north toward the Gulf Coast,
slowly eroding the arctic high in place towards Sunday evening.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty, still, regarding how far
north the front makes it. The global numerical models have
"flipped", with the ECMWF now depicting a faster northward
progression of the front to the North Gulf Coast by Sunday
evening. The 12z and 18z GFS stall the front before it makes it to
the coast, keeping all of southern Alaska dry through Tuesday. For
now, the WPC approach was favored which does bring a low chance
for precipitation to the coast by the end of the weekend. While
confidence is low, there should be a gradual uptick in
temperatures next week as the arctic high weakens, although
mainland locations still look to largely remain dry with no
significant precipitation threats on the horizon as the "blocky"
pattern aloft maintains it's hold over the regional weather
pattern.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 119 120 130 131 138 139. Heavy Freezing Spray 139
160 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JA