Small Craft Advisory 950, NWS Anchorage, AK

005 
FZAK52 PAFC 020037
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-021400-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 mb low 40 nm SE of Dutch Harbor will move onshore along 
the Kuskokwim Delta coast Sun morning. A 970 mb North Pacific 
low will track to 450 nm south-southwest of Adak Sun afternoon 
at 960 mb, then maintain strength as it moves to 65 nm southeast
of Adak Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-021400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-021400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt except S 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after 
midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-021400-
Bristol Bay-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-021400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-021400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-021400-
Unalaska Bay-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 30 kt then becoming SW 20 kt after 
midnight. Seas building to 5 ft then subsiding to 3 ft after 
midnight. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-021400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft building to 21 ft after midnight.
.MON...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-021400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming E 55 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft building to 26 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-021400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft building to 31 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 39 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-021400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft building to 24 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-021400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 31 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-021400-
Adak to Kiska-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Bering
side, seas 12 ft. Pacific side, seas 13 ft building to 19 ft in
the afternoon. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft Bering side...26 ft Pacific 
side. Rain and snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-021400-
Kiska to Attu-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 55 kt. Bering side, seas 12 ft building to 22
ft after midnight. Pacific side, seas 20 ft building to 27 ft after 
midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...N wind 60 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-021400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-021400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-021400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-021400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 PM AKST Fri Nov 30 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Seems the atmosphere is taking a back seat to the local
geomorphology today. Big picture, there is an active weather
pattern developing as a strong upper low over the Bering Sea
shifts eastward. Embedded within it are numerous shortwave
troughs, the first of which is moving toward Nunivak Island. A
second stronger low is quickly moving northeast toward Dutch
harbor and will move inland this evening. A third low is forming
south of Shemya, but is currently not impacting the Bering waters,
however, it will be a weather maker heading toward the end of the
weekend. The first low moving into Southwest now is already
bringing in quite a bit of warm air and mostly rain (with some
interior snow, although will quickly change over to rain). This
front will quickly shift east this evening into Southcentral,
bringing rain and snow to most of the region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical weather models (besides the huge outlier Canadian
Regional) are all in good agreement with the general pattern
heading through Sunday evening. There are some slight
differences, but overall they pain a good picture of what to
expect. Basically, all of Southern Alaska is expecting the passage
of three separate lows, all of which will bring a mix of rain,
snow, wind, and warmer weather to Southern Alaska through Sunday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...A challenging TAF for this evening and Saturday as a front
moves into the region. Expecting light snow to develop late this
evening then end by morning. Currently it is expected to be light
with conditions remaining above IFR, but briefly dropping to
periodic MVFR. By late morning Saturday, expecting strong
southeast winds to move into terminal with gusts to 35 MPH, then
dropping pretty quickly through the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Tonight through Sunday)

Our first storm system of interest is an area of low pressure
continuing to life across the eastern Bering Sea. An associated
surface warm front will reach the Kenai Peninsula tonight,
reaching the central Mat-Su Valleys to Copper Basin by late
morning. Widespread snowfall will develop ahead of the front,
before briefly changing over to freezing rain or a rain, snow,
sleet mix as it approaches. One it lifts north of the area, much
drier air will advect into the region at 850 mb, reducing the
precipitation coverage significantly. Additionally with a
southeast wind flow we expect the Turnagain Arm winds to get
cranking, with sustained winds of 30 to 45 mph across the
Anchorage Bowl, and 10 to 20 mph elsewhere. Colder air will move
back into the region with a cold frontal passage Saturday night,
with snow showers possible.

Our attention then turns to the next storm moving into the region
on Sunday, with widespread snowfall developing and a few inches
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Friday night
through Sunday)...

Low pressure east of the Pribilofs will continue to track into the
northern Bering overnight. As it does, a warm front now north of
Bethel will swing through the interior. There is plenty of warm
air and southerly winds with this system, so snow had changed over
to rain in most locations with the exception of a few locations
across far interior southwest, such as Aniak and Sleetmute. Colder
air will wrap back around the low tomorrow as it lifts and a cold
front sweeps through. This will change the precipitation type
back over to scattered snow snow showers for the Kuskokwim Delta
south to Dillingham Saturday morning. There will be a brief break
in the action Saturday as a ridge crests over the region. The
next system, however, will lift north into the eastern Bering
Saturday afternoon with another round of gusty southernly winds
and a quick change over of snow to rain for the southwest
mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2/ Friday
through Sunday)...

Strong gales and areas of storm-force winds will continue many
areas in the eastern Aleutians. As the low lifts north and a cold
front swings east. A second low will take a similar northward
track across the eastern Aleutians beginning Saturday with gales
and widespread rain from Dutch Harbor to Bristol Bay. Winds relax
and turn more westerly for Saturday night into Sunday as the low
lifts into the northern Bering.

For the the central and west Aleutians, a zonal flow with a low
east of Kamchatka will keep westerly winds steady at about 30
mph. This general pattern for the central and western Aleutians
will be in place through the weekend before the next North Pacific
low sweeps a warm front over the western and central Aleutians
late Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The forecast period commences with a longwave trough across the
Central Bering and portions of the North Pacific with a ridge
axis over the Yukon Territory and the Gulf Of Alaska. Between
these longwave features southwest flow aloft will dominate much of
the mainland. There are numerous shortwaves embedded in the upper
level trough. At the onset of the forecast period, the
Canadian/GFS and ECMWF have a surface low near Dutch Harbor,
another surface low west of St. Matthew Island and a dome of high
pressure east of SE AK. Even at the onset of the forecast period
the global models struggle with the placement of the surface low
although they have these features. As the forecast period
elapses, the model divergence becomes more amplified. Generally
speaking, expecting a progressive and unsettled pattern for the
Bering, the Aleutians and SW AK. However, due to the lack
consistency, this forecast package reflects a blend of models.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WSW 145.
MARINE...Storms 155 172. Gales 130-132 138 150 160 165 170 174
180 352 411 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...PS