Gale Warning 731, NWS Anchorage, AK

483 
FZAK62 PAFC 011304
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 AM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-020200-
404 AM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 990 mb low at 49N 174W moves to 59N 164W at 989 mb Sat night and
then moves inland. A 969 mb North Pacific low moves to 44N 174E
Sun morning and then moves to 48N 177W at 960 mb Sun night.

$$

PKZ411-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
404 AM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt becoming 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
404 AM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming 10 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 to 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
404 AM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S up to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
404 AM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

653 
FZAK62 PAFC 020037
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-021400-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 mb low near 53N 166W will move onshore along the Kuskokwim 
Delta coast Sun morning. A 970 mb North Pacific low will track to 
45N 179E Sun afternoon at 960 mb, then maintain strength as it 
moves to 51N 176W Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-021400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 ft building to 9 to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-021400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-021400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 9 to
15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-021400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 7 to
11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

132 
FZAK62 PAFC 021250
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 AM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-030200-
350 AM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 mb low near 58N 165W will move onshore along the Kuskokwim 
Delta coast through Sun afternoon. A 974 mb North Pacific low 
will move to 48N 178W at 957 mb by Mon morning and then to 51N
177W at 967 mb by Tue morning.


$$

PKZ411-030200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
350 AM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 ft building to 9 to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 25 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-030200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
350 AM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-030200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
350 AM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 9
to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-030200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
350 AM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

056 
FZAK62 PAFC 030016
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
316 PM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-031400-
316 PM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 962 mb low at 46N 179E moves to 51N 172W at 974 mb by Tue 
afternoon. Its front wraps over the Aleutians and Bering into the
Southern Alaska Peninsula for Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
316 PM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 29 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 29 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
316 PM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 28 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
316 PM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 18 to 30 ft building to 24 to 29
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
316 PM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKST Fri Nov 30 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level low centered over the Kamchatka Peninsula extends
across most of the Bering while a short wave ridge is centered
over Southcentral. A strong 120kt jet is pushing northeast across
the Aleutians and the southern Bering, undercutting the upper
level low. The upper jet is helping to support a surface low over
the Gulf of Anadyr with an associated gale force front extending
south from the low across the western mainland coast and Bristol
Bay. This front is pushing further inland bringing strong
southerly winds, unseasonably warm air, and a large swath of precipitation.
Precipitation has changed over to rain along the coast but colder
air inland is keeping precip mostly as snow.

Further east, high and mid level clouds can be seen advancing
into southcentral while the upper ridge is holding on over the
Copper River Basin, leading to cold temperatures and areas of
patchy fog and low stratus covering most of the inland basin.
Light offshore flow is leading to drier air and clear skies along
the North Gulf Coast this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, models are in acceptable agreement at the synoptic level
this morning, though most of the challenges this forecast lie in
the details. Models are differing on how fast warm air moves up
the Cook Inlet this afternoon, impacting precipitation type
forecasts for the next 24 hours. The GFS is trying to keep colder
air around longer up the Cook Inlet corridor, which would lead to
more snow before switching over to rain. The NAM is a bit quicker
at eroding the cold air and transitioning snow to rain from south
to north, which aligns more with current observations and trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Showers are in the vicinity of the terminal this morning as
a front approaches from the southwest. Challenges included timing
of wind shear and precip type with the approaching front this
evening. Southeasterly flow will allow a Turnagain Arm wind to
develop beginning Fri night, becoming strongest Sat morning.
Downsloping should help keep precipitation light over the
terminal and predominately VFR through the TAF period. With strong
southerly flow aloft, periods of wind shear were included in the
TAF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Weak ridging remains over much of Southcentral Alaska which has
helped develop and keep a stratus deck over much of the area. As
the ridge axis pushes east today a front will ride up the western
side and bring precipitation to Kodiak Island, the Cook Inlet
corridor, and the Mat-Su Valleys. This evening it will spread
precipitation throughout the rest of Southcentral Alaska.

The biggest challenge with the forecast is the type of
precipitation the front will bring to areas around Cook Inlet.
Most areas should start off as snow, with low lying areas then
transitioning to rain. However, some areas, such as western Kenai
Peninsula, may see a brief transition to freezing rain before
warming up enough for rain. It does not look like areas that will
see the overrunning of warm air will be able to hold on to
colder temps at the surface for very long. On Saturday, another
wave will come through from the southwest bringing more rain to
Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Friday
through Sunday)...
The first of two fronts impacting southwest AK over the next
couple days is currently pushing through the region. It is
producing light snow as it goes, with some locations gusting to
about 30 mph. This system is panning out as expected, which bodes
well for confidence with the next system, since this means our
forecast and the models handled the first one well.

The next system is expected to be more powerful than the front
currently over the area. This next system will cross over the
eastern Aleutians today, then move northeast with the low center
right over Nunivak Island tonight. The frontal system will be
pushing through Bristol Bay today ahead of the low center. As this
front moves in, it is still expected to bring warm air with it,
meaning we are still expecting a mostly rain event. Precipitation
will still start as snow but quickly shift to rain today, with the
possibility of some brief periods of freezing precip over inland
areas north of Bristol Bay. There is not enough of a threat to
issue an advisory though. There is a good fetch of wind out of the
southwest that looks to extend all the way into the lower
Kuskokwim Valley, so warmed temps there a bit tomorrow and Sunday.
As previously mentioned, this system will be stronger with storm
force winds pushing through Bristol Bay. These winds will mainly
occur on the backside of the low as it moves through tonight.
After the passage of this system, the area will see a brief break,
with the next low entering the area Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/
Friday through Sunday)...
The low that will pass over the eastern Aleutians into southwest
Alaska today is still on track. Gale force winds are expected for
many areas in the eastern Aleutians, with storm force winds
tonight on the south side of the eastern Aleutians. Out in the
central and west Aleutians, there is more zonal flow occurring
with winds steady at about 30 mph. This general pattern for the
central and western Aleutians will be in place through the
weekend.

The eastern Aleutians however, will see another low track over
them tomorrow night, in very similar fashion to the storm force
low expected through the area today and tonight. As of now, this
next low over the weekend will not be quite as strong, maxing out
with gale force winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The forecast period commences with a longwave trough across the
Central Bering and portions of the North Pacific with a ridge
axis over the Yukon Territory and the Gulf of Alaska. Between
these longwave features southwest flow aloft will dominate much of
the mainland. There are numerous shortwaves embedded in the upper
level trough. At the onset of the forecast period, the
Canadian/GFS and ECMWF have a surface low near Dutch Harbor,
another surface low west of St. Matthew Island and a dome of high
pressure east of SE AK. Even at the onset of the forecast period
the global models struggle with the placement of the surface low
although they have these features. As the forecast period elapses,
the model divergence becomes more amplified. Generally speaking,
expecting a progressive and unsettled pattern for the Bering, the
Aleutians and SW AK. However, due to the lack consistency, this
forecast package reflects a blend of models.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory 141.
MARINE...Storms 155 160 165 170 172 180. Gales 130 132 138 150 171
173 174 176 181 185 352 410.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP/KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
LONG TERM...PS