Small Craft Advisory 944, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Nov 29, 2018, 3:37 PM AKST (00:37 UTC)

Expired

Nov 30, 2018, 4:15 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

915 
FZAK52 PAFC 300037
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-301315-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the central and eastern Aleutians will persist 
through Sat night. A 981 mb low will move to 200 nm northeast of
Adak Friday morning then it will move near St. Matthew Island at 
967 mb Fri night. A 989 mb North Pacific low will move to 80 nm
south of Dutch Harbor at 989 mb Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-301315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft building to 21 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-301315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 50 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas 28 ft,
except 24 ft from the Shumagin Islands E. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ160-301315-
Bristol Bay-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-301315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt, except S 35 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 15 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt in the evening increasing to 50 kt. Seas 
15 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-301315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt in the evening diminishing to 35 kt. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-301315-
Unalaska Bay-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-301315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ173-301315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-301315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 45 kt becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-301315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ176-301315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas 15
ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ177-301315-
Adak to Kiska-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-301315-
Kiska to Attu-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ179-301315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming SW 30 kt. Seas 13 
ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-301315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt in the evening increasing to 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-301315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-301315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 25 kt in the evening 
becoming W after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 15 kt 
becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Nov 29, 4:55 AM AKST, 10 hours 42 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An active pattern is still holding over much of the state this
morning. A broad upper level trough remains in place anchored by a
996 mb surface low just south of Kodiak Island. Embedded within
the broader parent trough is a shortwave trough located over the
Kenai Peninsula. This shortwave is responsible for the continued
snowfall over Southcentral, extending from the Anchorage Bowl
northward to the Mat-Su Valleys, through the overnight hours. Cold
air advection continues to fill in behind this surface low,
bringing mixed precipitation to the north Gulf coast. Surface
observations indicate what initially began as rain has gradually
turned to snow or remained a rain/snow mix along the coastal
areas of Prince William Sound.

Surface observations also indicate precipitation over Southwest
in response to the front associated with the low south of Kodiak
Island. Southeasterly surface flow combined with northerly flow
aloft has allowed a decent band of precipitation to set up over
Bristol Bay during the overnight hours. Scatterometer data
(satellite-derived surface winds) indicate a patch of gale-force
winds over the waters just south of Sand Point.

Looking west, an upper level ridge is positioned over the central
Aleutians while an upper level Kamchatka low has begun advancing
into the western Bering. The leading edge of the front associated
with the low is draping gale-force winds over the central Bering
as it pushes eastward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement through Thursday night and have
locked onto the timing and track of a strong gale force front
ripping east across the Bering today. Major differences pop up by
Friday morning as a sharp upper level trough with a pair of
surface lows with tropical connections moves north from the
Pacific into the Bering. The GFS/NAM are in decent agreement with
timing, strength, and track while the Euro seems to be the outlier
with a quicker and weaker solution. Have gone towards the GFS/NAM
solution due to consistency, which brings strong gale to storm
force winds to the Eastern Bering/Aleutians/Bristol Bay area
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak surface wave tracking west across the area overnight has
mostly pushed west of the terminal this morning, with the bulk of
radar returns showing up on the other side of the inlet. Some
lingering moisture this morning will lead to temporary marginal
conditions in snow before completely clearing the terminal by mid
morning. Skies should scatter out some this afternoon as ridging
builds in from the west. This of course means increased chances of
fog developing this evening. The challenge is figuring out how
quickly the next system moves into the area tonight and if
fog/stratus is able to develop before mid level clouds push in.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Light showers will linger around Southcentral Alaska this morning
but diminish as the upper level low over the area weakens as it
moves to the northeast. Ridging will then build in over the area
allowing for temperatures drop back down closer to normal levels
for this time of year. However, colder temps will be short lived
as another system will bring a strong push of warm air across
Southcentral Alaska Friday.

As the front from this system moves through, most locations will
start as snow with many low lying areas near the coast
transitioning to rain. One of the challenges will be determining
if freezing rain will occur during the transition. For areas
around Cook Inlet this looks to be a possibility for locations
that can hold on to cold air at the surface. Another challenge is
with the models struggling with the timing and location of this
system. These differences will play a big factor in timing of
precipitation and amounts of precipitation throughout Southcentral
Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Thursday
through Saturday)... Two rounds of weather are expected the next
couple of days. The first round will push through southwest Alaska
later today into tonight and is the landfall of the front
currently pushing through Bering Sea. Temperatures are expected to
stay cold enough for any precipitation to fall as snow. Blowing
snow was a concern going into the tonight, but temperatures look
too warm for snow to really get blowing around.

The second round of weather should move into southwest AK tomorrow
night. This round of weather will move in from the southwest,
bringing warm air with it. Snow will quickly transition to rain as
this system comes ashore, so this will be mainly a rain event.
There will be a narrow band of mixed precipitation as snow
transitions to rain. Most of it will be a rain/snow mix, though
there is a chance for freezing rain around Bethel.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
3: Thursday through Saturday)... Low pressure continues to push
east through the Bering Sea today. Gale Force winds accompany the
front as it pushes towards the southwest coast. The front is
expected to weaken as it goes, largely loosing its Gale Force
winds as it moves through the eastern Bering Sea. Behind this
front, the western Aleutians will see zonal flow the next couple
of days, with winds intermittently strong enough for small craft
advisories. Meanwhile, the eastern Aleutians will see a brief
break in the weather, than another wave of energy will cross the
eastern Aleutians from the south tomorrow night, increasing wind
speeds again as it heads towards the southwest coast. Weather then
quiets Saturday with weak low spinning just north of the Pribilof
Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The upper level pattern for the extended forecast will feature a
longwave trough centered over the northwest Bering Sea, and a
ridge over the central/eastern Gulf of Alaska. Between the two
features, an active jet stream with several embedded disturbances.
Guidance is keying in on a potent disturbance coming off east
Asia, which will interact with baroclinic zone draped over the
northwest Pacific. The result will be a reshaping of the long-
wave as a stronger surface system develops south of the Western
Aleutians over the weekend. That system will become the new
center of the long-wave and shape the pattern into the middle of
next week.

Saturday begins under the southwesterly jet aloft, an embedded
trough, and plume of moisture from the Pacific. Unfortunately for
snow lovers, a bit warmer air mass will also be accompanying. As
that system exits a frontal boundary will stall from the western
Gulf through the southwest mainland. The pressure gradient around
this time will favor southeasterly winds through Turnagain Arm and
possible into Anchorage itself. As the previously mentioned
stronger system spreads into the Bering Sea we will return into a
deeper layer southeasterly flow pattern, meaning drier and warmer
with above average temperatures.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 155 165 170 172-176 179-181 185 412 413 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP/KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
LONG TERM...ML

In the hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
957 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     SNOW             RABBIT CREEK RD         61.08N 149.81W
11/28/2018  M5.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

0413 PM     SNOW             LAKE OTIS / HUFFMAN     61.10N 149.82W
11/28/2018  M4.8 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0405 PM     SNOW             RABBIT CREEK PARK       61.10N 149.83W
11/28/2018  E4.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

0321 PM     SNOW             HUFFMAN                 61.11N 149.85W
11/28/2018  M4.8 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0222 PM     SNOW             TURNAGAIN               61.19N 149.95W
11/28/2018  M1.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

1256 PM     SNOW             OCEAN VIEW              61.11N 149.88W
11/28/2018  E1.8 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

1255 PM     SNOW             BEAR VALLEY             61.07N 149.73W
11/28/2018  M3.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            STILL SNOWING AT THE TIME OF THE
            OBSERVATION.

1251 PM     SNOW             UPPER HUFFMAN RD        61.11N 149.78W
11/28/2018  M4.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            ACCUMULATION OVER 5 HRS.

1250 PM     SNOW             INDEPENDANCE PARK       61.13N 149.85W
11/28/2018  M2.8 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2018Every small craft advisory in 2018

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.