Small Craft Advisory 899, NWS Anchorage, AK

749 
FZAK51 PAFC 171247
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-180215-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front along the north to west Gulf coast will dissipate by 
Saturday afternoon. Another front enters the Gulf Sat morning 
and moves into the northeast Gulf coast by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ119-180215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Near the coast, E wind 35 kt 
diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-180215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-180215-
Resurrection Bay-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming less than 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-180215-
Prince William Sound-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-180215-
Port Valdez-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-180215-
Valdez Narrows-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-180215-
Valdez Arm-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-180215-
Passage Canal-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-180215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt, except NE wind 35 kt near Kamishak Bay. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Near
Kamishak Bay, NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near Kamishak Bay. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-180215-
Barren Islands East-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-180215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-180215-
Chiniak Bay-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas building to 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ137-180215-
Marmot Bay-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-180215-
Shelikof Strait-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming Variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-180215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-180215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-180215-
Kachemak Bay-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

285 
FZAK51 PAFC 180000
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-181230-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front exits Southeast Alaska for Sun night. A second front 
enters the Western Gulf and pushes across the Gulf through Mon 
afternoon. A 995 mb low forms along the front 460 nm South of
Kodiak City and moves to 160 nm Southeast of Kodiak City at 984 
mb then continues to 30 nm South of Seward at 989 mb by Mon 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-181230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-181230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-181230-
Resurrection Bay-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-181230-
Prince William Sound-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-181230-
Port Valdez-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-181230-
Valdez Narrows-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-181230-
Valdez Arm-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-181230-
Passage Canal-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-181230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
5 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-181230-
Barren Islands East-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-181230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-181230-
Chiniak Bay-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ137-181230-
Marmot Bay-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ138-181230-
Shelikof Strait-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-181230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-181230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-181230-
Kachemak Bay-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A ridge axis is spanning from Bettles to to Valdez. There are two
occluded fronts at each end of the Aleutians with a decaying
surface low over St Matthew Island. A precipitation shield in
association with the first occluded low has brought a wintry mix
to portions of Southwest Alaska, with observations of rain at
Dillingham and freezing rain at Bethel. Meanwhile the second low
near Attu is bringing rain and gale force winds to the region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are having some run to run consistency issues.
Generally speaking, there is decent agreement with the synoptic
features through the weekend. But there are some differences with
the placement of the QPF and with mode of precipitation. The
models significantly diverge over the Bering by Monday, with the
GFS keeping a ridge over the region and the ECMWF bringing a full
blown cyclone into the Western and Central Bering.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds expected at the airport for
the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today
through Saturday night)...
Southcentral will be right on the periphery of an upper level
ridge to the east and a trough to the south and west today. Most
of the energy lifting northward through the trough this morning
will head to Southwest Alaska. The southern Kenai Peninsula, right
on the edge of this, has the best chance of seeing some very light
precipitation. One of the big limiting factors for precipitation
is the dry airmass in place, as is evident in the 12Z Anchorage
sounding.

Meanwhile, a weakening surface low over the North Pacific is
headed toward Kodiak Island. Much more impressive is the gale
force occluded front, which is lifting northward across the
western Gulf, pushing up against the much higher surface pressure
to the north and east. This front, which is bringing strong winds
and moderate rain to Kodiak Island this morning will lift to the
northern Gulf this evening. At the same time, the upper trough
will become negatively tilted and lift toward Southcentral. The
strongest forcing will head for Prince William Sound tonight and
then across the Copper River Basin on Saturday. Therefore, the
bulk of precipitation with this storm will follow this same path.

With the low headed for Kodiak, surface flow over the northwest
Gulf and Kenai Peninsula will be northerly to easterly. This is
important for two reasons; the heaviest precipitation will fall
over the western Prince William Sound mountains, with much lighter
precipitation inland for the Seward Highway corridor and
Turnagain Pass and the northerly flow will help maintain dry low
levels from the western Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the Mat-
Su. The combination of some downslope flow across the Kenai and
Chugach Mountains along with the dry low levels means precipitation
will likely not reach the ground in the aforementioned areas. If
it does, it will be very light and brief. This is important because
warm air riding over the sub-freezing surface air would likely
lead to freezing rain.

Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Copper River Basin
beginning this evening and continuing through midday Saturday
from Glennallen southward. With the trough headed right for them,
it looks favorable for a good period of snow. Warm advection south
and east of Glennallen will then lead to a mix or changeover to
freezing rain Saturday morning for some areas.

As the upper trough exits Saturday night, a large high amplitude
trough will move in from the Bering Sea. With a complex series of
lows and short-waves moving through the trough, models are
struggling with the details. In any case, active weather looks to
continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Today through Saturday)

Cyclonic flow around both a northern Bering low and another
system approaching the AKPEN is advecting warmer air with
increasing amounts of moisture in the middle and upper layers of
the atmosphere this morning. However, area soundings show the
low-level dry air holding strong near the Bristol Bay region, as
dry air on the backside of the Bering low advected in behind a
weak surface trough. The net result is easily seen in this
mornings sounding from King Salmon, with large dewpoint
depressions seen below 6000 feet while being moist aloft. This
explains why some 30 to 40 dbz returns has produced very light
precipitation at Dillingham for instance, as the precipitation
largely evaporated during its descent into this dry wedge.

Further north and east, the dry air never made it this far north
with the Bethel soundings showing much more low-level moisture and
a sharp inversion just above the surface, with above freezing
temperatures in that layer. Meanwhile, the latest surface
observations indicate sub-freezing temperatures with areas of
freezing rain reported. This will allow for some light
accumulations of ice to develop across the lower Kuskokwim Valley
and points northward. However, temporal considerations and light
precipitation amounts preclude any headline issuance at this time.

Precipitation may become more scattered in nature later this
evening and overnight as the Bering low and surface trough wash
out. This looks to be short-lived though, as a low moving north
towards the AKPEN phases with another developing low moving from
the central Aleutians towards Bristol Bay. Increased southeast to
southerly winds will allow another surge of warmth and moisture to
move into the region. This time around, any wintry type
precipitation to the Kuskokwim Mountains region and interior
valleys of the upper Kuskokwim River. Depending on the track of
the low, precipitation amounts, and how quickly the cold air is
scoured out, some ice accumulation concerns may develop. The
models are not in good agreement with regard to all of these
factors so stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
(Today through Saturday)

A weakening front will continue to progress from the western
Aleutians towards central portions of the Chain over the next 234
hours, with a series of lows rotating around each other (Fujiwhara
effect) near Shemya. This will maintain sustained gales across the
western Bering, with small craft conditions further east as the
complex of lows slowly treks eastward. This combined with the
remnants of a low further north will maintain a showery regime
behind the frontal passage, with some wintry precipitation
possible.

Further east, the series of lows mentioned above will consolidate
into a single low that'll deepen as it heads east northeast
towards Bristol Bay. This new low will absorb another system
moving into the region from the north Pacific. This will allow for
more widespread precipitation and small craft conditions to
develop on Saturday for the Bristol Bay region and for coastal
waters south of the peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Sunday Night through
Thursday)...

An upper level trough currently working its way east from the
Bering will be in place over southern Alaska by the start of the
longterm. This will keep weather unsettled for southern AK through
the weekend and into early next week. A series of shortwave
troughs embedded in the longwave system will impact southcentral
AK, with the first trough moving into the area Sunday and the
second Monday. Timing and placement are not quite dialed in yet,
so continuing to refine the resultant forecast from these shortwaves.

Going into the middle of next week the GFS and ECMWF look to have
come into decent synoptic agreement, with a series of troughs
working their way across the Aleutians and through southern AK.
The long term forecast period ends with troughing over southern AK
and the eastern Aleutians, ridging over the central Aleutians,
and troughing over the western Aleutians. All of this means an
active weather pattern for the foreseeable future. With model
consistency being not great, also wouldn't be surprised to see
this pattern shift. This also means a messy forecast pattern with
low confidence after Monday. At the end of the forecast period on
Thursday, model agreement begins to completely fall apart, so
very little confidence for the tail end of the forecast period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 141.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139
			178 351 352 411.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1145 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018

AKZ101-111-170845-
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna,
Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
1145 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018

...Areas of Freezing Rain possible this afternoon through early
evening along the Glenn Highway...

While most of the Anchorage Bowl should see little to no freezing
rain, the Glenn Highway from Anchorage to the Matanuska Valley
may see some light freezing rain during the afternoon commute
today.

There is still a lot of uncertainty with this potential event,
but the pattern is conducive for some light rain to make it over
the mountains to the Glenn Highway while the majority of the
Anchorage Bowl remains dry. The Eagle River valley is a location
that is a little more at risk for freezing rain as well.