Small Craft Advisory 588, NWS Anchorage, AK

551 
FZAK51 PAFC 021156
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-030030-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the western Gulf moves to the southeastern Gulf
tonight. The associated 985 mb low moves 120 nm south of Middleton
Island tonight and then moves 400 nm southeast of Middleton Island at
993 mb Fri night.

$$

PKZ119-030030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-030030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-030030-
Resurrection Bay-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-030030-
Prince William Sound-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-030030-
Port Valdez-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-030030-
Valdez Narrows-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 15 becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-030030-
Valdez Arm-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-030030-
Passage Canal-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-030030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-030030-
Barren Islands East-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-030030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-030030-
Chiniak Bay-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-030030-
Marmot Bay-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-030030-
Shelikof Strait-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 
ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-030030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-030030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-030030-
Kachemak Bay-
356 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

005 
FZAK51 PAFC 022352
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-031230-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front in the western Gulf moves to the southeastern Gulf
tonight. A 995 mb low near Kodiak Island will strengthen to 985 mb and
move to 120 nm south of Middleton Island tonight. It then moves to
400 nm southeast of Middleton Island at 993 mb Fri night. North 
to northeasterly flow will prevail through the Gulf through Sunday.

$$

PKZ119-031230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-031230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 35 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-031230-
Resurrection Bay-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Gusts to 30
kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 3 ft. Rain 
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-031230-
Prince William Sound-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft 
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-031230-
Port Valdez-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-031230-
Valdez Narrows-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-031230-
Valdez Arm-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-031230-
Passage Canal-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-031230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-031230-
Barren Islands East-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 35 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-031230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt becoming N 35 kt by midnight. Seas 8 
ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-031230-
Chiniak Bay-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-031230-
Marmot Bay-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-031230-
Shelikof Strait-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-031230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-031230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-031230-
Kachemak Bay-
352 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
419 AM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A vertically stacked upper level low is centered over Saint
Matthew Island and extends across most of the Bering Sea,
Aleutians, and western Alaska. A front can be seen on satellite
imagery extending out from the low across southwest Alaska, the
Kenai Peninsula, and into the Gulf of Alaska while moving
northeast. Radar shows a line of rain moving north out of
southwest Alaska with scattered showers and gusty southerly winds
developing across the southwest mainland as colder air filters in behind
the front. Precipitation is beginning to show up over the
northern Cook Inlet and southern Susitna Valley as the front
swings through from the south. An upper level ridge which extends
from the Gulf of Alaska north to cover the eastern half of the
state is slowly pushing east allowing the upper low to move in
behind it. A persistent marine layer is still prevalent under the
ridge over the Gulf and low stratus and fog have moved ashore over
parts of the northern Gulf Coast tonight.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in reasonable agreement through the end of the week as
the large upper low moves into the Gulf. Some disagreement shows
up as we head into the weekend regarding the location of the low
in the Gulf as well as the next disturbance moving into the
western Aleutians/Bering.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...A weak front is moving north up Cook Inlet this morning
pulling in some low stratus and rain. This will drop ceilings/vis
down to MVFR and even temporarily to IFR levels for a few hours
before going back to VFR after the frontal passage. Winds should
remain less than 10 kts out of the south/southwest today before
switching to southeasterly in the evening ahead of the next system
coming in.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A weak weather system over the Susitna valley this morning will
exit to the north by afternoon. Broad southwest flow aloft will
continue over Southcentral through tonight, with the main upper
low centered over the northern Bering. This will result in
considerable cloud cover (except in the Copper River basin) and
possibly a few showers. A stronger system will push into the area
on Thursday and Thursday night. Rain will move into Kodiak Island
in the morning and then push northeast into the rest of
Southcentral during the afternoon and evening hours. The main
upper low will rapidly dive southeast Thursday night and will be
centered near Kodiak Island early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The vertically stacked low over the northeastern Bering will
continue to shift northward today, lifting the trough currently
over the southwest mainland into the interior. As a result, wet
onshore flow conditions will continue through the period. A more
potent shortwave will track across the Bering today and push into
the southwest mainland by this evening. This enhancing feature
will produce widespread rain across much of the Southwest and
AKPEN through Thursday evening before diving into the western
Gulf as high pressure builds in Thursday night. The next front
advances toward the southwest coast by Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
A vertically stacked low over the northeastern Bering will
continue to push northward through Thursday, then begin it's
journey southward back into the Gulf & north Pacific by Friday. A
wave over the the western Bering Sea this morning will strengthen
into a near gale force low as it moves eastward through Thursday.
A stout ridge will develop across the central Aleutians behind
this system, bringing more stable and warm conditions. This warmer
and more stable airmass is likely to produce widespread stratus
and areas of fog through the end of the week. A second, mature
Kamchatka Low will edge closer to the western Bering on Thursday.
This system will push a warm front across the central Bering and
sweep a cold front across the western Aleutians beginning Thursday
then move east over the ridge for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7...Sat through Tue)...
The pattern will be dominated by steady westerly flow ferrying
energy from the Bering over the top of a North Pacific ridge into
southern mainland AK. Models have a notoriously hard time with
actual sensible weather in this pattern. There is no overly strong
feature for them to track on to and then carry through the
forecast domain. And as is always the case with the mountainous
terrain, the direction of the flow through the column, but
especially at mountain top, will be key in where precipitation
falls.

Ensembles do reveal fairly high confidence that two synoptic
features will dominate the environment. First, the afore mentioned
flat North Pacific ridge. Second, a vertically stacked low sitting
just north of the Bering Strait. As energy moves between these
features, the exact amount of interaction will be important for
determining which (if any) lows will strengthen and bring more
impactful weather to the area.

For now, the forecast will lend towards the climatology of August.
That is, a cooler, cloudier, and wetter trend than what much of
the state (especially Southcentral) has seen for the latter half
of July. While that may sound like doom and gloom at first glance,
the pattern could actually be one where we alternate between dry
and wet days.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...MSO